The dismal science indeed.

I wouldn't mind the blather that comes from the mouths of economists--if only so many millions of people, perhaps even some CEOs, didn't believe what the economists were saying.

I write this after hearing yet another economist making a grand prediction: "At this stage in the cycle, significant job creation is imminent."

As we have been reporting, and as you, our readers, have been telling us in our CEO Confidence Index surveys, there are several reasons why significant job growth may not happen as fast as the pundits would like, if ever. One obvious factor is the outsourcing of so many functions to distant lands. This is a structural change in our economy and is part of an ongoing globalization process. Economists don't know how to react to structural changes like that. Their theories and indicators are many decades old, and stop at the water's edge. They're not globalized.

The other psychological factor that the economists don't understand is what's going on in the minds of CEOs. I sense that CEOs are suffering a kind of post-traumatic stress syndrome. After a period of scandal, recession, terrorism and war, CEOs are trying to squeeze every drop of productivity out of their existing infrastructures. When they do need more workers as some sectors of the economy start to improve, they'd rather pay overtime or use contingent labor or go offshore. The last thing they want to do is build or rebuild permanent cost structures.

So the theories about a certain level of economic growth or a certain level of corporate profitability being an automatic trigger for massive job growth are just that--theories. Problem is, these theories are shaping the public policy debate, leaving many Americans simply waiting on the sidelines for happy times to return rather than taking action to improve their skills and their competitiveness.

It seems to me that what CEOs think about the U.S. economy is far more credible than what the armchair theorists have to say. So in coming weeks, we are going to ask readers what you think. If you'd like to be included, send your name, company and telephone contact information to me at [e-mail].

I'M VERY PLEASED that Chief Executive will be co-sponsoring a Roundtable meeting on "global diversity" with Pitney Bowes and CEO Mike Critelli. The session will be held on March 30 in New York and we'll cover the event in the pages of the magazine, as we do all of our events.

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I confess that I've gone through a learning curve on the subject of diversity and now understand what a crucial subject it is. There are compelling reasons why CEOs need to take racial, sexual and age diversity very seriously. (See Chief Concern, page 18.) The American marketplace is changing quickly and more companies are operating in more markets around the world. It's just good common sense to build companies that reflect the composition of the markets around us. In other words, it's all about the bottom line.

William J. Holstein