The big picture.CHILE Chile (chĭl`ē, Span. chē`lā), officially Republic of Chile, republic (2005 est. pop. 15,981,000), 292,256 sq mi (756,945 sq km), S South America, west of the continental divide of the Andes Mts. The peso has posted strong gains against the dollar, leading to some doubts about export competitiveness. Foreign demand for Chilean copper, already at record high prices, is expected to grow. The country also stands to profit from free-trade deals with the European Union European Union (EU), name given since the ratification (Nov., 1993) of the Treaty of European Union, or Maastricht Treaty, to the European Community and the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. , its largest export market. COLOMBIA Colombia (kəlŭm`bēə, Span. kōlōm`byä), officially Republic of Colombia, republic (2005 est. pop. 42,954,000), 439,735 sq mi (1,138,914 sq km), NW South America. Bogotá is the capital and largest city. With record-low inflation and growth of more than 3%, economic performance beat expectations in 2003. President Uribe's standing took a blow in October October: see month. when a government-backed referendum referendum, referral of proposed laws or constitutional amendments to the electorate for final approval. This direct form of legislation, along with the initiative, was known in Greece and other early democracies. on fiscal reform, considered a measure of public confidence in the president, failed. Worries about peace talks with FARC Noun 1. FARC - a powerful and wealthy terrorist organization formed in 1957 as the guerilla arm of the Colombian communist party; opposed to the United States; has strong ties to drug dealers rebels persist. Brazil Brazil (brəzĭl`), Port. Brasil, officially Federative Republic of Brazil, republic (2005 est. pop. 186,113,000), 3,286,470 sq mi (8,511,965 sq km), E South America. After an almost no-growth year, economic output should pick up in 2004. President da Silva's commitment to fiscal austerity Austerity See also Asceticism, Discipline. Amish conservative Christian group in North America noted for its simple, orderly life and nonconformist dress. [Am. Hist. , including his government's reform of public employee pensions, has been popular with investors. Forecasters predict inflation to drop to around 6%, close to the Brazilian Central Bank's target of 5.5%.
THE BIG PICTURE
LATIN TRADE'S Consensus Forecast as of January 2004
REAL GDP INFLATION
% change % change
2002 2003E 2004F 2002 2003E 2004F
ARGENTINA -10.9 7.4 5.4 41.0 3.7 8.0
BRAZIL 1.5 0.2 3.6 12.5 9.3 6.2
CHILE 2.1 3.3 4.6 2.8 1.1 2.5
COLOMBIA 1.7 3.1 3.2 7.0 6.5 5.7
ECUADOR 3.4 2.4 4.4 9.4 6.1 4.6
MEXICO 0.9 1.2 3.2 5.7 4.0 3.8
PERU 5.2 4.0 3.9 1.5 2.5 2.3
VENEZUELA -8.9 -10.4 7.5 31.2 27.8 32.6
EXCHANGE RATES CURRENT ACCOUNTS
End of Period % of GDP
2002 2003E 2004F 2002 2003E 2004F
ARGENTINA 3.36 2.90 2.94 9.2 6.8 5.5
BRAZIL 3.53 2.93 3.17 -1.7 0.6 -0.8
CHILE 720 611 610 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7
COLOMBIA 2,867 2,805 2,962 -2.0 -2.2 -2.5
ECUADOR 1.00 1.00 1.00 -4.8 -1.7 1.0
MEXICO 10.37 11.19 11.48 -2.2 -1.7 -2.4
PERU 3.5 3.47 3.54 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0
VENEZUELA 1,389 1,636 2,433 8.5 10.9 9.1
INT'L RESERVES
US$ billions
2002 2003E 2004F
ARGENTINA 10.5 14.1 15.4
BRAZIL 37.8 49.1 45.6
CHILE 15.4 15.9 16.1
COLOMBIA 10.7 10.8 10.6
ECUADOR 0.7 0.8 1.6
MEXICO 50.6 56.5 57.5
PERU 9.3 10.3 11.3
VENEZUELA 14.8 20.6 21.9
E = Estimate F=Forecast
SOURCE: Banamex, BBVA, CS First Boston, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan
Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Salomon Smith Barney, UBS
Warburg, LATIN TRADE
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