The big picture: Latin trade consensus forecast as of November 2003.* ARGENTINA Argentina (ärjəntē`nə, Span. ärhāntē`nä), officially Argentine Republic, republic (2005 est. pop. 39,538,000), 1,072,157 sq mi (2,776,889 sq km), S South America. An International Monetary Fund deal gives both the government and investors wiggle room wiggle room n. Flexibility, as of options or interpretation: ambiguous wording that left some wiggle room for further negotiation. Noun 1. . Strong growth in 2003 will only slightly cool in 2004, although it's it's 1. Contraction of it is. 2. Contraction of it has. See Usage Note at its. it's it is or it has it's be ~have not clear who will pay the bills to clean up the banking sector. * BRAZIL Brazil (brəzĭl`), Port. Brasil, officially Federative Republic of Brazil, republic (2005 est. pop. 186,113,000), 3,286,470 sq mi (8,511,965 sq km), E South America. President Lula's economic team is sticking to tried-and-true policies, making decisions easier for investors. Growth dipped dip v. dipped, dip·ping, dips v.tr. 1. To plunge briefly into a liquid, as in order to wet, coat, or saturate. 2. in 2003 but should rebound rebound (rē´bownd), n/v 1. a recovery from illness. n 2. an outbreak of fresh reflex activity after withdrawal of a stimulus rebound adjective . Watch for structural reforms and action on mounting public debt. * MEXICO Mexico, city, Mexico Mexico or Mexico City, Span. Ciudad de México (Méjico), city (1990 pop. 8,236,960; 1991 met. area est. 20,899,000), central Mexico, capital and largest city of Mexico. It's all about the U.S. recovery, which means a long, slow building process. Inflation is heating up, so no easing of monetary policy is expected. Political foes must make a deal to move ahead on reforms in energy and tax policies.
THE BIG PICTURE
LATIN TRADE CONSENSUS FORECAST as of November 2003
REAL GDP INFLATION
% change % change
2002 2003E 2004F 2002 2003E 2004F
ARGENTINA -10.9 6.6 4.5 41.0 4.0 7.6
BRAZIL 1.5 0.7 3.5 12.5 9.6 6.4
CHILE 2.1 3.3 4.4 2.8 2.9 2.9
COLOMBIA 1.7 2.6 3.2 7.0 6.4 5.5
ECUADOR 3.4 1.9 4.1 9.4 6.8 5.0
MEXICO 0.9 1.6 3.3 5.7 3.7 3.7
PERU 5.2 3.8 3.7 1.5 2.0 2.2
VENEZUELA -8.9 -11.7 6.3 31.2 32.9 37.2
EXCHANGE RATES CURRENT ACCOUNT
end of period % of GDP
2002 2003E 2004F 2002 2003E 2004F
ARGENTINA 3.36 2.86 2.87 9.2 7.3 6.0
BRAZIL 3.53 3.02 3.24 -1.7 0.2 -0.9
CHILE 720 666 666 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7
COLOMBIA 2,867 2,954 3,111 -2.0 -2.2 -2.3
ECUADOR 1.00 1.00 1.00 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6
MEXICO 10.37 10.97 11.32 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5
PERU 3.51 3.53 3.61 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1
VENEZUELA 1,389 1,787 2,541 8.5 8.9 7.9
INT'L RESERVES
US$ billions
2002 2003E 2004F
ARGENTINA 10.5 13.9 16.3
BRAZIL 37.8 53.7 50.5
CHILE 15.4 15.1 15.6
COLOMBIA 10.7 10.8 11.0
ECUADOR 0.7 1.2 1.2
MEXICO 50.6 53.2 54.3
PERU 9.3 9.9 10.1
VENEZUELA 14.8 16.9 16.2
E = Estimate F = Forecast
SOURCE: Banamex, BBVA, CS First Boston, Goldman Sachs,
Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Santander Central Hispano
Investment, Salomon Smith Barney, UBS Warburg, LATIN TRADE
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