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The bear facts.



It was 1986, and Richard Holway, future scourge of the UK technology vendors, had left his job as managing director of systems integrator Wootton Jeffreys to launch his own consultancy practice from his Surrey bedroom. Holway's first contract was selling Apple Macs to the business market. It may have been a hard sell, but the part-time job earned him enough to be able to spend the rest of his week doing what he likes best: poring over the financial statements of companies in the IT industry.

Soon, IBM (International Business Machines Corporation, Armonk, NY, www.ibm.com) The world's largest computer company. IBM's product lines include the S/390 mainframes (zSeries), AS/400 midrange business systems (iSeries), RS/6000 workstations and servers (pSeries), Intel-based servers (xSeries)  had commissioned a report investigating the financial viability of the UK's mid-range server reseller community. Of more than 200 agents, Holway found almost all to be "technically insolvent". That conclusion not only forced IBM to look again at the credit agreements it had with its UK channel, but it also set the tone for Holway's consistently bearish Bearish

Words used to describe investor attitude. A bearish investor believes that a particular asset or the market as a whole will decline in value.


bearish 
 statements about the IT industry, which persist to this day.

The IBM-commissioned report was eventually published and distributed freely, becoming the first of the now famous Holway reports. Produced annually, these tomes pass judgement on the financial performance of the key software and IT services companies in the UK.

The reports have been consistently hailed as astute and influential. At times, they inspire - some even say coerce - senior management at covered companies to change corporate strategy; often his pronouncements move share prices. As each report was published, Holway's cache grew. Then, in 1998, he made a stand that marked him out as something of a maverick. He declared that the runaway growth years for the industry were about to end - abruptly and painfully. "I was pilloried for that one," says Holway.

In fact, Holway was far from the only industry commentator to adopt this doomladen stance. Many rivals pundits still bristle at Verb 1. bristle at - show anger or indignation; "She bristled at his insolent remarks"
bridle at, bridle up, bristle up

mind - be offended or bothered by; take offense with, be bothered by; "I don't mind your behavior"
 the fact that Holway was a 'lone voice', albeit a highly influential one - although some grudgingly grudg·ing  
adj.
Reluctant; unwilling.



grudging·ly adv.

Adv. 1.
 admire him for cultivating the image. "Richard is Richard I, Richard Cœur de Lion (kör də lyôN`), or Richard Lion-Heart, 1157–99, king of England (1189–99); third son of Henry II and Eleanor of Aquitaine.  a great self-publicist. He is good at promoting himself as the font of all knowledge," says David Johnson David Johnson may refer to:
  • David Johnson (American artist) (1827 - 1908), American painter
  • David Johnson (Anchorman), American news anchorman
  • David Johnson (Australian rules footballer) (born 1981), Australian-rules footballer
, an analyst with corporate financier Altium Capital. "In many ways, these things "These Things" is an EP by She Wants Revenge, released in 2005 by Perfect Kiss, a subsidiary of Geffen Records. Music Video
The music video stars Shirley Manson, lead singer of the band Garbage. Track Listing
1. "These Things [Radio Edit]" - 3:17
2.
 become self-fulfilling: If you can gain enough currency for your opinions then they acquire a certain weight."

Holway, a little proudly, tells of one IT executive who said he was at least partly responsible for the falling stock market. "It was one of the greatest compliments ever paid to me. If I did have that amount of influence I wouldn't be sitting here talking to Noun 1. talking to - a lengthy rebuke; "a good lecture was my father's idea of discipline"; "the teacher gave him a talking to"
lecture, speech

rebuke, reprehension, reprimand, reproof, reproval - an act or expression of criticism and censure; "he had to
 you, I'd be on some Caribbean island," he says.

He was, of course, right about the sharp reversal of fortunes that most IT companies were staring in the face, but Holway did not give up there. In November 2002, he gave a presentation in which he pronounced the IT industry as entering its 'maturity' phase, putting it in the same category as the likes of the rail and automotive industries Automotive Industries, Ltd. (Hebrew: תעשיות רכב נצרת עלית, תע"ר . "I was f***ing pilloried again," he says. And still he refuses to let up on the embattled em·bat·tled  
adj.
1. Prepared or fortified for battle or engaged in battle: embattled troops; an embattled city.

2.
 tech sector. At a speech to a gathering of IT executives in London in early July 2003, Holway said that, if anything, he had been a little optimistic op·ti·mist  
n.
1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome.

2. A believer in philosophical optimism.



op
 when he pegged future growth at about 4%.

To his critics, the pessimistic line is wearing thin. "It is easy to be bearish all the time, but the really clever ones make money on the way up and get out at the right time," says one City analyst. Nevertheless, to cast Holway in the role of perennial doomsayer doom·say·er  
n.
One who predicts calamity at every opportunity.
 over-simplifies his views. He has often praised, as well as condemned, IT companies. Ask Sage and Capita, winners of his 'Boring Award' for companies that have successfully managed revenue grown for 10 years in a row.

Moreover, the charge that he missed out on the IT boom overlooks two pertinent facts: Richard Holway Ltd was highly profitable throughout the 1990s, an achievement that allowed him in 2000 to sell his majority share in company to rival Ovum for [pounds sterling]4.3 million in cash and stock. (He remains a director of Ovum Holway and one of its major shareholders.)

Now, as major financial institutions cut back on in-house technology research, Holway is enjoying something of a renaissance in the City. That will doubtless strike fresh fear into the hearts of UK technology industry executives keen to hype their company's prospects. But there is some good news for them: at 56, he is starting to talk about retirement to the Lake District. The bad news: he says he plans to stay on their case for several years to come.
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Publication:Information Age (London, UK)
Date:Jul 10, 2003
Words:769
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