The all-weather bond portfolio.Tired of money market yields but afraid to relinquish security? One answer may be a diversified portfolio of government, municipal, and corporate bonds. When it comes to investing, everybody loves to talk about stocks. Most of us can wax rhapsodic rhap·sod·ic also rhap·sod·i·cal adj. 1. Of, resembling, or characteristic of a rhapsody. 2. Immoderately impassioned or enthusiastic; ecstatic. about the latest biotech highflier high·fli·er also high-fli·er n. 1. One who is extravagant or extreme in manner or opinions. 2. A stock that sells well above its original value. Noun 1. or blue chip darling we just picked up, but bonds are often mentioned only in passing: "Oh, I also own a bunch of Wisconsin Power Authority municipals." But treating bonds like second-class securities is a recipe for underperformance. By contrast, blending stocks and bonds offers diversification and protection from market downdrafts--particularly important for CEO (1) (Chief Executive Officer) The highest individual in command of an organization. Typically the president of the company, the CEO reports to the Chairman of the Board. investors interested as much in security as in yield. But take this logic one step further: Blending bonds in fashioning the fixed-income segment of your portfolio can leave you well-prepared whether the economy remains in the doldrums doldrums (dŏl`drəmz) or equatorial belt of calms, area around the earth centered slightly north of the equator between the two belts of trade winds. or shifts into high gear. Given the vast array of bonds and bond products on the market, we recommend that many of our high-net-worth clients invest in a combination of municipal, high-yielding corporate, and government bonds. Think of this as an all-weather bond portfolio: One possible mix would be 50-30-20, respectively. Beyond that, take care to sidestep side·step v. side·stepped, side·step·ping, side·steps v.intr. 1. To step aside: sidestepped to make way for the runner. 2. some common pitfalls of bond investing: Don't fall in love with yield, don't neglect an investment's long-term consequences, and don't be afraid to restructure your portfolio should economic circumstances change. A BRAVE NEW WORLD Brave New World Aldous Huxley’s grim picture of the future, where scientific and social developments have turned life into a tragic travesty. [Br. Lit.: Magill I, 79] See : Dystopia Brave New World Changes in the capital markets are making bond buying more complex; this requires a greater focus by investors. Most of the recent activity resulted from a lengthy and profound drop in interest rates. With long bonds yielding 7.8 percent and T-bills at 3.7 percent, interest rates--especially on the short end of the yield curve--have declined dramatically over the past few years. This movement has had a major impact on the bond market. Some investors who several years ago bought municipal or corporate bonds sporting juicy, double-digit yields didn't read the fine print: A great many of these issues are callable Callable Applies mainly to convertible securities. Redeemable by the issuer before the scheduled maturity under specific conditions and at a stated price, which usually begins at a premium to par and declines annually. . Thousands have had to bite the bullet when rich 12 or 13 percent yields were called, and the only available investments were paying maybe half as much. The point: When it comes to bonds, you must pay attention and be decisive. An example: A few years ago, some executives I know bought Washington Power The Washington Power were a member of the National Lacrosse League during the 2001 and 2002 seasons. After unsuccessful stints in both Baltimore (as the Thunder) and Pittsburgh (as the CrosseFire), the franchise moved to Washington, D.C.. municipal bonds that carried an 11.2 percent yield to maturity and sold for $130. They were pleased as punch to own them, but a closer look would have revealed there was a very good chance these bonds would be called. These investors chose to ignore that possibility and instead focused on the high current yield. A few years later, the bonds were called at $102, and investors absorbed a 21 percent loss of principal. A few years ago, some other investors I know blindly snapped up Ginnie Mae Ginnie Mae: see Federal National Mortgage Association. bonds with a 15 percent coupon. Unfortunately, interest rates were dropping fast, and their principal was paid down at warp speed warp speed n. Informal An extremely rapid speed or state of activity: "A young pronghorn antelope teased a yearling wolf, shifting into warp speed and leaving the wolf in the dust when it tried to pursue" . Here's another grim tale: A guy in my car pool owned some municipal bonds yielding 14.75 percent. We kept telling him they were going to be called, but he stubbornly refused to give up that yield. If he had acted earlier he could have locked in a yield over 8 percent. Now he's stuck with $300,000 he needs to reinvest re·in·vest tr.v. re·in·vest·ed, re·in·vest·ing, re·in·vests To invest (capital or earnings) again, especially to invest (income from securities or funds) in additional shares. , and the best he can do today--with comparable risk--is about 6.25 percent. I'm recommending that he put about 15 percent of that into some riskier 11.5 percent Dayton (OH) Emery emery: see corundum. emery Granular rock consisting of a mixture of the mineral corundum (aluminum oxide, Al2O3) and iron oxides such as magnetite (Fe3O4) or hematite (Fe2O3). Air Freight air freight n → flete m por avión air freight n → fret aérien air freight air n → Luftfracht f bonds. But for the bulk of his portfolio he must accept far less. Another place pinching investors with lower rates is good old Hometown Bank & Trust. With CDs and money-market accounts paying out the skimpiest yields in decades, millions of Americans are siphoning their dollars out of banks and into mutual funds. Fund companies have responded by creating myriad new products, up and down the yield curve, to meet the needs of virtually every investor. However, many investors are still trying to find yields that match what they reaped several years ago. It is absolutely critical to understand that today's 8 percent fixed income instrument is much more risky than an 8 percent money-market fund money-market fund, type of mutual fund that invests in high-yielding, short-term money-market instruments, such as U.S. government securities, commercial paper, and certificates of deposit. several years ago. In sum: Don't get sold on yield. Anything yielding more than a T-bill, CD, or money-market fund does so for a reason and carries principal risk. Calculate a bond or bond fund's expected total return and balance that against the risk involved. Purchasing just on a yield basis is like buying a sports car and not knowing if it has brakes. OPTIMUM MIX Municipal bonds should comprise roughly half the bond portfolio of a wealthy investor. Munis always make sense, partly because the tax savings they offer may be substantial. (My wife and I have sizable municipal and municipal bond fund Municipal Bond Fund A mutual fund that invests in municipal bonds, operating either as an investment trust or as an open-end fund. Notes: Because the bonds are local government issues, they usually help to maximize tax-exempt income. holdings.) Say you live in California, where the top state tax rate is 11 percent. Assuming you are subject to the top federal rate, 31 percent, you would have to find a CD yielding more than 10 percent to give you an equivalent after-tax yield higher than the state's 6.4 percent munis. Right now in the municipal arena, higher-grade bonds are generally the most attractive. That's because their yields--compared with those of lower-quality bonds--are at a historical high. Particularly recommended are Triple-A, 10-year munis yielding between 5.9 percent and 6.1 percent. Don't bother going 30 years for those yielding 6.5 percent--it's not worth the risk. The safest municipals are insured bonds Insured bond A municipal bond backed both by the credit of the municipal issuer and by commercial insurance policies. insured bond A municipal debt obligation for which interest and principal are guaranteed by a private insurance company. , those backed by one of several AAA-rated insurance companies. These days, about a third of all municipals are insured. An insurer pays back your interest and principal if the issuer defaults--you give up between 10 to 15 basis points for this coverage. Also look for pre-funded municipals, short- to intermediate-term bonds backed by Treasury securities. And find out whether your bonds are subject to the alternative minimum tax. If you have enough deductions to lower your effective tax rate below 24 percent, the AMT See vPro. kicks in and requires you to add back into your taxable income Under the federal tax law, gross income reduced by adjustments and allowable deductions. It is the income against which tax rates are applied to compute an individual or entity's tax liability. The essence of taxable income is the accrual of some gain, profit, or benefit to a taxpayer. such items as tax-free interest on certain bonds. Another potential plus for munis: Regardless of who wins the election this year, top tax rates could rise, making these bonds even more valuable. In government bonds, look into five-year Treasury notes yielding about 6.4 percent. Intermediate bonds are an investor's friend: They produce a hefty portion of the returns of long bonds with much less principal risk. Too, government bonds are exempt from state tax, so they make more sense for someone who lives in a state with high income taxes. Also, except for certain long bonds, Treasury securities are not callable. Treasuries are easy to buy from the Federal Reserve, either without a sales charge Sales Charge A commission or fee paid by an investor at the time of purchasing mutual fund shares. The charge is paid to a mutual fund salesperson or financial advisor and is intended to provide compensation for the financial salesperson's efforts in assisting their client select or with a modest charge from banks or brokers. The minimum investment is $10,000 with $5,000 multiples thereafter. Since their credit quality is uniform, choosing Treasury bonds involves deciding where you want to be on the yield curve. You can also buy government agency bonds that have slightly higher yields--although these come with a small amount of risk. Of course, you can pick from a wide range of Treasury mutual funds with various maturities and objectives. There are also funds that blend Treasuries with government agency bonds such as Ginnie Maes to produce a higher yield (though, again, not without some additional risk). With high-yielding corporates, meanwhile, diversification is critical. A mutual fund is a good way to play this game. Frequently, wealthier investors don't take enough risk. But purchasing high-yield bonds High-yield bond See: Junk bond high-yield bond See junk bond. will increase the risk/reward mix of your portfolio. Right now, intermediate-quality corporates yield about 11.5 percent--for someone in the 31 percent tax bracket Tax Bracket The rate at which an individual is taxed due to a particular income level. Notes: Each income class is taxed at a different level. Generally, the more you make the more you are taxed. , that is equivalent to an after-tax yield of 7.9 percent. Corporates carry a greater principal risk, but investors with a longer-term horizon will find these securities fit the bill. Some long-term strategies: By ignoring principal fluctuations and reinvesting the coupon over time, you can reap sizable benefits. Reinvesting interest is another way of "dollar averaging" into the high-yield market. Over the past decade, for instance, hospital bonds have been perceived as risky. Indeed, their prices have been volatile. Yet an investor who stuck with them would have garnered excellent returns. There are probably still opportunities in this area. Let's tally the results. Last year, the combined, weighted, after-tax yield of this portfolio of municipals, government, and high-yield bonds would have been 6.5 percent. With inflation running about 3.5 percent, that's not bad. EXOTIC INVESTMENTS A coda about mortgage-backed securities--products created in line with the trend toward securitization Securitization The process of creating a financial instrument by combining other financial assets and then marketing them to investors. Notes: Mortgage backed securities are a perfect example of securitization. May also be spelled as "securitisation. of less-liquid types of assets. Currently, these bonds are yielding a bit more than 7.5 percent and, therefore, are attracting significant attention. But a strong caveat: Though investors can be richly rewarded in the MBS See Mb/sec. MBS - mobile broadband services arena, they should be aware of the potential pitfalls. One problem with securities such as those issued by Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) is prepayment risk Prepayment Risk The uncertainty related to unscheduled prepayment in excess of scheduled principal repayment. Notes: This risk is generally associated with mortgage securities. . When interest rates fall, many homeowners refinance their mortgages. Similar to circumstances surrounding the recall of a bond, that means bondholders have their principal returned to them and must reinvest at a lower rate. With all mortgage-backed bonds, the accounting involved can be difficult and individual investments perilous. If you're interested in using such securities to enhance yield, mutual funds are the way to go. Ultimately, the mix of a bond portfolio should be determined by an individual's investment needs and the economic outlook. Regarding the latter, now is not the time to bet on interest rates making a strong move up or down. Our economists believe we are entering a period of fairly stable interest rates. Long rates are expected to decline to just under 7.75 percent, while short rates will probably begin to ratchet up a bit to about 4.2 percent by next spring, as the recovery builds momentum. The all-weather portfolio, however, should fare well no matter which way the wind blows. If the recovery picks up steam, you may suffer a little principal erosion in your government and municipal bond portfolio as short-term rates rise, but your high-yield bonds will benefit. On the other side of the coin, if the economy fails to accelerate, your high-yield bond position could be crimped crimped said of grain that has been passed through corrugated rollers after previous exposure to moist heat so that the grain is fractured but there is a minimum of dust. , but the rest of your portfolio would hold strong. William N. Shiebler is senior managing director of The Putnam Companies, a Boston-based investment-services firm with assets of $60 billion. |
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