The Wireless Web: Do you get it?

We have a complicated, confusing wireless industry in this country. We have multiple technologies, multiple handsets, multiple rate plans. But you can't afford to ignore it. In three to four years, we'll have about 500 million wireless users accessing the Internet. That's up from zero two years ago and surpasses the total number of PCs providing access globally.

If you're not familiar with the technology, we're in second-generation wireless (2G) today, moving to 2.5G tomorrow. Expect DoCoMo to launch 3G in Japan in May. The U.S. will come in about two to three years after that. Why do we lag behind? We have multiple protocols for wireless voice and four competing non-compatible digital standards. The rest of the world has gone with a single standard, while we have let the market decide. Then we've delayed spectrum auctions, which may put us another year behind.

First-generation wireless, AMPS (advanced mobile phone service, an analog system) began on Bell Labs' drawing boards in 1947, but wasn't launched commercially until 1983. AT&T expected it would have 900,000 U.S. subscribers by 2000. Small error. There were 100 million last July. (The FCC in '83 gave AT&T a free national license in cellular; carriers expect to spend $8 billion for one license in the bandwidth to be auctioned this March.)

GSM (global system for mobile communication), the European digital standard, is now the global de facto standard. It's passed 300 million subscribers and predictions say 1.0666 billion by 2005. Kids in Europe are driving SMS (short message service, a two-way alphanumeric system), with 10 billion messages sent last July alone. Then there's Blue Tooth -- short-range machine-to-machine wireless -- with an estimated 600 million devices by 2003. That's from zero today.

3G wireless is a specification mandated by the International Telecommunications Union with specs that call for high-speed data, high-speed Internet access, digital voice and full-motion video with your digital phone.

In the U.S., it's the foundation for mobile commerce and an explosive opportunity. By 2003, we project $83 billion in mobile commerce revenue. Don't look at it as an extension of e-commerce. It's not. Mobile commerce changes all the revenue streams, how you target customers, how you deliver products and services. It's about harnessing the unique characteristics of wireless -- anytime, anywhere access, always-on, location-awareness. It calls for a comprehensive strategy of its own.