The War Against Terrorism - Part 3 - The 2nd Phase; The Long Term.

From the outset of the war against terrorism, pledged by President George Bush, the US has said the offensive would be phased according to priorities. The first priority would be to remove the immediate threat, i.e. Osama Bin Ladin, his Al Qaeda network and the Taliban. This has been underway since American forces began their assault in the night of Oct. 7, or early morning Oct. 8, 2001. Phase One can be expected to last as long as the first priority objectives remain unfulfilled.

Apart from President Bush, various top officials - from Secretary of State Colin Powell to Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld - have warned that the campaign against terrorism will not be over with a quick strike or two, as was the case after the US embassy bombings in Nairobi and Addis Ababa in 1998, but will be sustained over many years until the problem is crushed. That is the essence of Phase Two, i.e. the war against terrorism will last a long time to come - perhaps even a decade, according to some US officials.

To achieve immediate objectives, the US has formed what it refers to as a "revolving" coalition. The implication is that memberships in the coalition are valid on a temporary basis and that they may be replaced by new members as Phase One progresses, or by the time it ends and Phase Two begins. There is also an underlying assumption that some countries that are members in Phase One may find it hard to remain coalition partners in Phase Two.

In fact, there are already doubts as to whether the American objectives of Phase One can be achieved, given the way in which the coalition was formed. There are also concerns whether the coalition can be maintained, especially from the Arab side, in light of the geo-political environment in the Middle East which is closely inter-twined both with the WTC/Pentagon attacks and the US response against the Taliban regime. The intensity of Israeli-Palestinian violence has increased and Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon has ordered tanks back into the West Bank and Gaza Strip (see the survey of Phase One in Part 2).

Phase Two was referred to as a "draining of the swamp", during which the environment where the terrorists function will be destroyed, prompting them to come out of hiding and be caught by the US and its global anti-terror coalition. US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld has declared that the war against terrorism would employ diplomatic, financial, intelligence and other means - and the focus during the second phase would be more on those aspects than on sustained military strikes of the type currently underway as part of the first phase.

There is broad agreement that the "Arab Afghans" have to be tackled as part of Phase One, and if necessary into Phase Two. Washington has realised that Afghanistan is the "melting pot" where regional Islamist movements have combined to become a global menace. The US also recognises that the sectarian approach of the Wahhabis or the Deobandis might be too entrenched to dig out, but the ultimate objective of Phase Two would be to create an environment where Islamic extremists from the Arab countries, Chechnya, Pakistan, Western and even Balkan states can no longer network effectively and strengthen each other through ideological, information and material exchange.

When the radicals are chased out of Afghanistan they will have a few choices; Iraq, Pakistan, Sudan and Somalia, to name the few obvious "safe" havens. Lebanon is possible but unlikely, given the fact that both Syria and Iran are deeply mindful of the risks involved. There is little doubt that, during Phase Two, the "safe" havens will come under such intense pressure. Much depends on the duration of Phase One. If the objectives of the first phase take too long to achieve, it is conceivable that some aspects of the second phase will overlap.

As such, the goals of Phase Two, i.e. the long-term aspects of the war against terrorism, will include: (a) eliminating the physical "infrastructure of terror", i.e. hitting the various Islamist groups by arresting or liquidating their personnel, breaking their linkages with intelligence agencies in the Muslim World and appropriating their material assets; (b) dismantling the hidden infrastructure, including the global financial assets, undermining their core ideologies, etc.; and, perhaps most importantly (c) removing the conditions in Islamic states that help to incubate the "jihad" (holy war) or "shaheed" (martyr) mentality among its youth.