The Taliban Disintegration & Aftermath.

As was the case before the US-led wars in the Persian Gulf and in the Balkans, there were plenty of forecasts that "Afghanistan would be America's next Vietnam". In the absence of any immediate gains in the first weeks of bombing, there were criticisms of the US bombing campaign. But the perspective began to alter dramatically after the fall of Mazar-e-Sharif in the north to NA forces on Nov. 11-12. Once the Taliban's image as tough fighters was punctured, it was only a matter of time before other cities fell. The collapse of the Taliban was quicker than its rise to power.

In the wake of Mazar's capture the Taliban had fled more than just a key city. NA forces then swept after the retreating Taliban, who mostly fled without putting up a serious fight, and captured the five northern provinces of Samangan, Sari Pul, Shirbarghan, Jouzjan and Balkh. In traditional Afghan fashion, many local Taliban commanders simply switched sides and joined the NA. These commanders were either bribed in advance - by various special force and operation units in the area from the US, Russia, etc. - They or were just trying to save their own lives and get away from under the air bombardment.

Soon the Shiite Hazara fighters, who had been hiding in the mountains of central Afghanistan for several years, re-entered the scene and began attacking retreating Taliban forces. The central province of Bamiyan surrendered to them, as did the vital town of Pol-e-Khomri, straddling the road from Mazar-e-Sharif to Kabul. The Taliban began to flee towards the last Pashtun stronghold in the north, Kunduz.

Meanwhile, the cracks in Taliban rule were deepening. In their spiritual home of Kandahar far to the south, where their leader Mullah Mohammed Omar was traditionally based, the strict Islamic rules that had governed day-to-day life for five years were being ignored. Many of the dreaded religious police had disappeared from the streets after American bombs flattened their headquarters.

Kabul fell to NA forces on Nov. 12-13. The capture of the city was remarkably free of bloodshed. The Taliban did not put up a fight. In fact, they had begun their withdrawal hours before the NA entered Kabul in the night of Nov. 12. By contrast, during the mid-1990s, ethnic-based faction fighting accounted for more than 25,000 deaths in Kabul alone. During that time Western Kabul was reduced to rubble by rocket-fire.

Uzbek warlord Dostum soon announced the formation of an interim government in Kabul. Burhanuddin Rabbani, the exiled former leader, was confirmed as President, Younis Qanooni was Interior Minister and Abdullah Abdullah Foreign Minister. It is important to note, however, that Dostum did not assume any position himself. A wily and highly opportunistic figure, he will remain a wildcard in the coming months.

NA figures quickly began to reiterate that they were in favour of a broad-based government, and the US and its allies stressed this line as well. The meeting in Koenigswinter is the result. The Taliban were not represented at the talks. The next steps, based on the sentiments expressed at the meeting in Germany, would include (a) agreement on transitional supreme council, (b) nomination of a broader transitional government, and (c) holding of a council of elders or "Loya Jirga" to decide how the country will be governed after the six-month transition.