The Taliban Campaign.

A large spring offensive by the Taliban has turned into their strongest show of force since their regime was toppled in late 2001. Afghan and foreign officials and local villagers blame a lack of US-led forces on the ground for the resurgence. More than 900 people have died in violence in Afghanistan this year, according to US government figures.

As US troops are preparing to hand over operations in southern Afghanistan to a force of mainly Canadian, British and Dutch troops in July/August, Taliban militants backed by remnants of al-Qaeda and Hekmatyar are taking advantage of the transition to swarm into rural areas. Coalition and Afghan forces clash daily with large groups across five provinces of the south. But while the Taliban are in the lead, their Arab and Hekmatyar allies operate behind front-lines; the latter do not enter into direct contact with locals.

In their boldest push, the Taliban recently fought battles in a district less than 30 km out of the city of Kandahar, forcing hundreds of people to abandon their villages for refuge in the city and in other towns as coalition forces responded with aerial bombardments. The Taliban are running checkpoints on secondary roads and seizing control of remote centres for a night or two before melting away again.

In the most blatant symbol of their dominance of rural areas, the Taliban have even conducted trials under Neo-Salafi interpretations of Islamic law outside official Afghan courts, and recently carried out at least one public execution. The NYT on June 12 quoted Talatbek Masadykov, in charge of the UN aid mission in Kandahar, as saying: "The situation is really, in the last four years, the most unstable and insecure I have seen". But accounts differed on just how bad the security situation was, particularly after a surge of fighting just west of Kandahar in recent weeks. He said: "From different tribal people we are hearing that the Taliban are regrouping, and from government officials that security is improving".

The NYT quoted an "international security official in Kandahar, who has several years of experience in Afghanistan and was granted anonymity because of the nature of his information", as saying members of US and Canadian special forces had told him they were "not winning against the Taliban", adding: "If the central government does not act and coalition forces do not increase, I think it will be impossible to say what will happen".

In the previous week, clashes occurred in Uruzgan, Zabul and Helmand provinces, with the coalition and Afghan forces reporting successful engagements which killed several dozen Taliban fighters. But residents in Char Chine of Uruzgan said coalition forces had shelled civilians as they were packing to leave a nearby village of Pir Jawati - with 11 killed having included an old woman and four children. Two suicide bombs in Kandahar and Khost killed at least four civilians. A roadside bomb killed three men in a government convoy south of Kabul on June 10.

Coalition officials say the Taliban suffered a severe blow when US jets bombed the village of Tolokan, not far from Kandahar, on May 21, as part of a four-pronged operation by Afghan and coalition forces over several days. The bombing killed at least 35 civilians, and later much anger was directed at the US forces in Afghanistan, prompting President Karzai to visit the site. But local residents say the public mood quickly shifted against the Taliban, as the Tolokan bombing drove home the risk to villagers who, whether because of coercion or co-operation, allow the insurgents into their homes. It underscored the heavy civilian toll the fighting was taking. Many Afghans say they simply want security, brought by either side.

Southern Afghanistan is the birthplace of the Taliban and has remained a stronghold as the Taliban have staged a steady comeback since their fall from power in December 2001. For years, the Taliban could field only a few hundred men in scattered groups in mountainous areas. Now the Taliban claim to have 12,000 fighters, while the coalition estimates about half of that. The NYT quoted officials as saying: "Even though several hundred insurgents may have been killed in fighting this year, the Taliban are recruiting ever more local people". The paper added: "Many Afghans interviewed expressed frustration that the coalition, which showed such strength in [late] 2001, was now failing to stem the...Taliban and that people were dying".

The NYT quoted Col Ian Hope, "the Canadian commander of coalition forces in Kandahar Province", as saying his forces had been spread too thin to stem the surge in Taliban fighters. But that should change now that British and Dutch forces were getting into place. He said: "It will not occur again. It's dangerous for people to lose confidence in us".

Of the 16,000 NATO force from July, 6,000 will be deployed in southern Afghanistan, one of the most restive regions. But while these forces are being deployed, the US will reduce its troops by about 3,000 and keep 20,000 in the country under a separate US command.

Even though the Tolokan bombing may have hurt the insurgents, the Taliban remain strong and villagers dread the prospect of more violence. They complain they are caught in the middle of fighting which pits the Taliban against the government and their foreign allies.

The NYT quoted Hajji Agha Lalai, a tribal elder and provincial councilor from the Panjwai District in Kandahar Province, as having said at a recent meeting: "Everyone swore that we would cooperate with each other and not let the Taliban fight in our district. We are not going to pick up guns and fight the Taliban; we are going to go with bare hands, and come out of our houses and tell them: 'You have to kill us first before you can attack the government and the coalition from here'".