The Taliban's Role & Implications For Afghanistan.

The Pakistani army had prevented the Taliban from launching their post-Ramadan offensive into Afghanistan by invading North and South Waziristans on Oct. 7. They managed to set up a counter engagement by stirring their network in the Swat Valley, which took the pressure off the Waziristans. Musharraf's Nov. 3 move had distracted the army. As a result, several villages and towns in the Swat Valley, only a drive of four hours from Islamabad, later fell to the Taliban without a single bullet being fired. The Taliban have since secured similar successes in the north-western Afghan province of Farah and the south-western provinces of Uruzgan and Kandahar, where districts have fallen without much resistance.

A new wave of attacks during the week was expanding the Taliban's grip in Afghanistan's south-eastern provinces of Khost and Kunar. And on Nov. 6, it was later said, the Taliban were responsible for the massive suicide attack in northern Baghlan province in which scores of people died, including a number of MPs. Most notable among the MPs was Sayed Mustafa Kazimi, the Hazara Shi'ite leader.

The Taliban in the spring of 2006 had surprised many with their offensive, when the West had already anticipated their demise. They occupied several key districts in the south-west and then as the winter snows closed in they struck ceasefire deals with coalition troops. The aim was that, once the weather improved, they would launch a mass uprising and force the surrender of major cities. However, NATO forces sprang a surprise of their own with military operations - one after the other - from December 2006 onwards against the Taliban. That forced the Taliban's abrupt retreat from important arteries and effectively ended the dream of a mass uprising in the spring of 2007.

Instead, the Taliban turned more to the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) - said to be supplied by Iran - and suicide attacks to irritate the NATO forces rather than cause serious damage. NATO was relaxed during the month of Ramadan as Afghans generally do not fight in this period; and, with the winter setting in, it was believed that the next Taliban action would only take place in the spring of 2008. But the Taliban have since taken advantage of Pakistan's political troubles to keep on fighting in what is probably their first real winter offensive.

The fate of the Taliban's offensives in Afghanistan and Pakistan are closely linked with the fate of Musharraf's second coup. He will have to restore the country to normalcy very quickly. If not, the Taliban will go from strength to strength and a vital US-led war on terror theater will be closed.

King Abdullah Meets The Pope: Pope Benedict XVI and King Abdullah ibn Abdul-Aziz of Saudi Arabia on Nov. 6 clasped hands at the Vatican in a cordial meeting, the first meeting ever between a pope and a Saudi/Wahhabi monarch who is entrusted to protect Mecca (the birthplace of the Prophet Muhammad and centre of the Islamic world). The pair met for half an hour, speaking through interpreters, in a conversation which a Vatican press release later said covered such themes as the "value of collaboration between Christians, Muslims and Jews for promoting peace" and "the necessity of finding a just solution" of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Marco Politi, Vatican correspondent for La Repubblica and a biographer of Pope John Paul II, said: "I think it is extraordinarily important that an official communique from the Vatican and an important Islamic state like Saudi Arabia mentions 'co-operation' between Christians, Muslims and Jews - not dialogue but co-operation".

The meeting, presaged by an upbeat front-page story in L'Osservatore Romano, the Vatican's official newspaper, was a clear attempt by the Vatican to repair damage done by the pope's earlier statement on Islam, which had been seen as insensitive if not incendiary in the Arab world.

In a speech in Regensburg, Germany, a little over a year ago, Benedict quoted a 14th-century Byzantine emperor who called Islam "evil and inhuman". The comment led to protests in the Muslim world and prompted some Islamic states to recall their ambassadors to the Vatican. Fire bombers attacked churches in the West Bank and Gaza, gunmen killed an Italian nun in Somalia and the pope himself was threatened. The Vatican expressed "deepest regrets" but said the remark had been misinterpreted in a way which "absolutely did not correspond" to the pope's intentions.

The article in the Vatican newspaper seemed to open the door for a new diplomatic initiative towards Islam and the Middle East. It said the meeting with King Abdullah was "of great importance", noting: "In a world where the boundaries have become day by day more open, dialogue is not a choice but a necessity". It acknowledged that some weeks earlier Benedict had received a letter from 138 Islamic religious leaders from 43 countries, appealing for more dialogue between Christians and Muslims. As the weeks went by with no response, some scholars in the Vatican complained that the pope seemed slow to address an important appeal. The Vatican on Nov. 6 allayed those fears.

The Nov. 6 meeting represented a triumph of sorts for the Vatican secretary of state, Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone and especially for Cardinal Jean-Louis Tauran, president of the Pontifical Council for Inter-Religious Dialogue. Tauran, who previously served the church in Lebanon and Syria, is familiar with the Middle East and has promoted greater contact with Islamic states. But official statements issued on Nov. 6 made no mention of establishing diplomatic relations between the Vatican and Saudi Arabia, and it was not clear if that topic had even been discussed.

In May, the UAE became the latest Muslim state to establish diplomatic relations with the Vatican.

Kingdom-Italy In Anti-Terror Pact: King Abdullah on Nov. 5 was given a red carpet welcome at Rome airport by PM Romano Prodi and senior Italian officials as he arrived there on a two-day visit on the second leg of his landmark European tour. During the royal visit, Saudi Arabia and Italy signed a series of bilateral agreements including one on fighting terrorism and organised crimes.

Arab News on Nov. 6 reported Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef as describing the anti-terror pact with Italy as a comprehensive security agreement covering anti-terrorism measures and a joint drive to fight drugs smuggling and money laundering as well as repatriating criminals and the exchange of security information.

King Abdullah, who arrived from Geneva, was accompanied by a high-level delegation which included Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, intelligence chief Prince Muqrin, Labour Minister Ghazi al-Gosaibi, Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf and Culture and Information Minister Iyad al-Madani.

Arab News on Nov. 6 quoted Mario Scajola, head of the Italian branch of the Saudi-based World Muslim League, as saying "the meeting between a pope and a Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques is important for its symbolism". He said the meeting, which came at the behest of King Abdullah, was an example of his "illuminated reign". Scajola, a former Italian ambassador to Saudi Arabia who converted to Islam in 1987, said King Abdullah had introduced reforms including elevating women to important positions in the business and diplomatic fields.