The Syrian Predicament.

The Syrian regime must choose between fighting a war and curbing its support for Palestinian Islamist groups and Hizbollah of Lebanon. Damascus has warned that another Israeli strike on Syrian soil will face a tough response, but this will mean military action. The Baathist regime of President Bashar Al Assad will merely step up its support for cross-border attacks by Hizbollah from South Lebanon. This, however, will not satisfy Syrian public opinion, especially if Israel keeps hitting targets within Syria. The US has indicated it will not intervene to restrain Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon, but instead it is suggesting that Syria may well become a target in the war against terror.

On Oct. 8, a US House committee voted in favour of legislation to impose a range of sanctions against Syria, accusing it of supporting terrorism and pursuing WMD. The move came following decision by the White House to drop its opposition to the sanctions move. Partly, this has to do with the way in which Syria has manoeuvred itself in the post-9/11 era, especially in its opposition to the military operation to oust Saddam's Baathist regime and its current criticism of the US occupation of Iraq. There is growing suspicion in the US that the incidence of attacks in Iraq is being actively backed by Damascus, where the Baathist regime wants to avoid a repeat of what happened to its Iraqi rival-turned ally since 2000.

The young Syrians are fed up with the fact that, for decades, their Baathist rulers have been spending more on defence to protect the regime than on raising their appallingly-low standard of living. The young are no longer convinced by the regime's rhetorics against Israel or the US, or by its reliance on proxies such as Hizbollah; they want what Sharon or Bush's radicals say should be done: direct military action, not just words.