The Syrian Angle & Peace Talks With Israel.

It is said that the 'Alawite/Ba'thist regime of Bashar al-Assad  in Syria has grown wary of Iran's attempts to control it - one reason why he has had indirect peace talks with Israel being mediated by Turkey. The 'Alawites are a distant branch of Shi'ism, which are only tolerated by Ja'faris because of the latter's differences with the Sunnis dating back to the early days of Islam.

The 'Alawites in Syria only account for 8-10% of the country's predominantly Sunni population. Although Assad is Sunni, in Syria and the rest of the Sunni Arab world he is regarded as a "political convert", as he still belongs to one of the 'Alawite clans. His father, Gen Hafez, only converted to Sunnism in 1970 in order to become president, shortly after his coup against the civilians of the Ba'th Arab Socialist Party.

The fourth round of indirect Syrian-Israeli talks in Turkey was held on July 29-30. Israeli PM Ehud Olmert had sent two top aides to Turkey on July 29 for the talks, which had begun in May. During the fourth round, the delegates of Syria and Israel were to decide whether to move to direct talks from August.

US National Security Adviser Steven Hadley was in Turkey on July 29-30 to watch the talks, while in Damascus officials stressed that Assad's regime was counting on an active American role in the peace process between Syria and Israel. But Assad was jolted by Olmert's July 29 ultimatum, saying Damascus must choose between peace or international isolation as the two states were still technically at war.

In an address to students at Hebrew University in Occupied Jerusalem, Olmert said: Syria must opt "between the Iranian grip, partnership in the axis of evil and international isolation, or peace, economic prosperity and a place among the family of nations... The time will come when signals, as positive as they may be, are not enough", addressing Damascus.

Two advisers to Olmert - Shalom Turjeman and Yoram Turbowitz - were in Turkey for the fourth round. AFP on July 30 quoted an Israeli official as saying: "Israel's desire for peace is very serious. That is why we expect that the process...will soon evolve into direct bilateral negotiations with a view to achieving significant results". (Under the then format, Israeli and Syrian officials do not see each other and Turkish diplomats shuttle between the two sides).

On July 28, Syria's Ambassador to the US 'Imad Mustafa told a gathering of activists in Washington allied with Israel's Peace Now movement: "We desire to recognize each other and end the state of war. Here is then a grand thing on offer. Let us sit together, let us make peace, let us end once and for all the state of war". But Mustafa said any peace agreement would depend on an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, occupied in the June 1967 Arab-Israeli war and annexed to Israel in 1981 in a move not recognised by the international community.

Earlier in July, President Assad said Damascus would establish "normal" relations with Israel, including the opening of embassies, if the Turkish-mediated talks led to a peace deal. The resumption of talks came amid hints in the press that Damascus was adopting confidence-building measures but also a July 29 allegation by Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak that Syria was continuing to arm Hizbullah.

Barak, then in the US for talks with senior officials on a range of Middle East issues, made the claim in a meeting with hawkish Vice President Dick Cheney. Barak said: "To our great disappointment, we have observed over the past two years that the number of missiles held by Hizbullah has doubled, if not tripled, and their range expanded, all with the close and consistent help of Syria".

Ha'aretz on July 29 quoted Israeli officials as saying Damascus had adopted "tangible" measures intended to show it was serious about peace. Israel has demanded that Syria cut its ties to Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas, and other armed groups which resist the Jewish state's occupation of Arab land.

Assad, however, remains part of the Iran-led axis of anti-US/anti-Israel forces in the GME. But Assad on Aug. 2 went to Tehran, his third visit to Iran since becoming ruler of Syria in mid-2000, on a French-inspired mission to mediate between the theocracy and the Western powers over the nuclear issue. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mu'allem on Aug. 2 was quoted as saying Assad was seeking to help Iran prove to the West that its nuclear programme was merely for peaceful purposes.