The States Of Concern.

From the US perspective, the "states of concern" - a phrase chosen by former secretary of state Madeleine Albright to replace "rogue states" - include Iraq, Iran and Libya. Iran and Libya have become noticeably more flexible in their overall state conduct in recent years. Since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks Libya has strongly criticised terrorism and radical Islamists, although it has also blasted the bombardment of Afghanistan. Interestingly, the US has made relatively few comments suggesting that Libya could come under the target list, with some observers believing this to be the result of Libyan success in developing a close friendship with the EU states.

Tehran has been particularly successful in rehabilitating itself into the "international community", something which the EU has acknowledged. This, together with the fact that it co-operated behind the scenes with the US in the first phase of the war against terror, would make it unlikely that Iran would become a target in the war. Another factor in Iran's favour is that the US would need Iranian co-operation in the event of any action against Iraq.

There have been strong signals from Washington, lately increasing in intensity, that Iraq would be the next major target in the war against terror despite advance objections from the Arab World. The diplomatic groundwork is being laid carefully. Washington is demanding that Baghdad accept the return of UN inspectors or face the consequences. Iraq has refused. One scenario is that a related ultimatum could result in Iraq being attacked perhaps by the summer of 2002 (see News Service of this week).