The Saddam Factor.

After Saddam was taken prisoner by US soldiers, Ahmad Al Jarallah, the editor-in-chief of Al Seyassah newspaper in Kuwait, wrote a front-page editorial on Dec. 16 entitled "Lessons to the likes of Saddam". The editorial said the capture of the deposed Iraqi leader provided a shock "to all the evil regimes that until now follow the example of Saddam, use his methods of tyranny and despotism". Such regimes "know they are like him", Al Jarallah wrote, adding: "They are the prisoners of the slogans they used to lie to their people". He continued: "Saddam has fallen because of what his wooden mind produced, and similarly, what their minds produce will lead to their fall". Playing it safe, he did not name any names in his editorial.

The capture of Saddam Hussein by US forces, the way in which he was apprehended, and the manner in which he was first shown as a captive on Western media networks, will have an historic impact on the Middle East. Most observers assess that that Saddam's capture is perhaps the most dramatic finale to any regime after the Nazis, because of the scale of his crimes and the long timeframe over which they were committed (see News Service of this week). A man regarded as a hero by the majority of the Arab population, because of his defiance of the US and his ability to survive whatever external pressures were applied, Saddam is now in custody and is to be put on trial.

Arab rulers watching the turn of events are bound to be deeply concerned about its implications for their own vulnerability. To avoid a similar fate, they will all try to get closer to the US. This may or may not succeed, because the American response to such efforts will take into account factors such the ruler's co-operation in the war against terror, his record on democratisation, his posture on the Middle East peace process, etc.

Few countries in the Arab World, even among allies of the US, are likely to satisfy American expectations on all these criteria. The rulers have become painfully aware of the tough new US attitude, cultivated by the neo-conservatives but adopted by virtually all American politicians across the ideological spectrum, over the past two years. Thus, the official Arab reaction to Saddam's capture was marked by caution. No one took a clear-cut position on the issue.

Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa referred to the arrest as an "important event", noting that "it was only a matter of time before Saddam was captured". He also said that "it is the Iraqi people who must decide the fate of the old regime..." there is a general perception throughout the Arab World that regime change will not end with Iraq, and the manner in which Saddam was taken captive and displayed on television has reinforced that perception.

The irony for Arab leaders is that a large number of their peoples, perhaps the majority, had viewed Saddam as an example of a true Arab leader, a man who defied the odds and still remained proudly defiant. An even greater irony is that, now that Saddam has surrendered without putting up a fight, the perception is spreading that he was a coward and not worthy of support. But this does not mean that the image of the rulers have improved among their peoples. According to Khaled Batarfi, managing editor of Al Madinah newspaper, quoted by Reuters, many Saudis believed Syria and Iran were the next countries in the sights of the Bush administration, followed by Saudi Arabia.