The Persian Gulf at the Millenium: Essays in Politics, Economy, Security, and Religion.

Reviewed by Gawdat Bahgat

This book is an important contribution to a growing body of literature on the future of the Gulf region. The contributors are from the United States, Europe, and the Middle East. In their twelve chapters, the authors cover a variety of topics such as border disputes, oil, privatization, political reform, and Islamic revival. Throughout the book, there is an attempt to focus less on individual states and to concentrate more on a broad approach to the region as one unit. No one formula was followed by all contributors in dealing with these significant issues. Rather, each one of them tackled his or her topic from a different perspective. Thus, there is no consensus among the contributors on either the diagnosis or the cure for the current situation in the region. Throughout the twelve essays, the fundamental agreement is that the current patterns of economic and political development, and the low level of regional cooperation, might lead to a bleak future if not treated properly.

Since the war to liberate Kuwait in 1991, Western powers (particularly the United States) have taken the responsibility of defending the Gulf states from any intra-region military conflict. This relative security from external aggression highlights the threats posed by the internal socio-economic and sectarian cleavages within each Gulf society. Accordingly, with the exception of Anthony Cordesman's essay on Iranian military capabilities, most of the other chapters deal with domestic challenges, particularly the distortions in the economic structures.

The reasons for this imbalance in the Gulf regimes can be identified as follows: 1) budgetary uncertainties due to a heavy dependence on oil as the main, and almost sole, source of national revenues; 2) dominance of the public sector and lack of genuine efforts to introduce and implement economic reform; 3) distortion of the labor force with heavy reliance on expatriates, accompanied by high rate of unemployment among the indigenous labor force; and 4) absence of popular participation as demonstrated by the absence of autonomous civil society. These themes have been examined in specific case studies such as Iran (Gary Sick, pp. 22-24), Saudi Arabia (Karim Pakravan, pp. 119-126), and Bahrain (Munira Fakhro, pp. 168-188).

In addition to examining the internal structural imbalances in different settings, some regional issues and their implications have been thoroughly analyzed. Paul Steven's essay on oil provides a comprehensive discussion of oil policy. The author discusses both the supply and demand sides, production and marketing, prices, and the hydrocarbon industry. Like the International Energy Agency and the United States Department of Energy, Stevens predicts that oil prices are not expected to experience any substantial rise in the near future. This is likely to put more pressure on the Gulf states to engage in serious efforts to privatize their economies. Another important contribution of this volume is Schofield's essay on border disputes. Over the last decade, intensive efforts have been made to settle territorial disputes among the six Gulf monarchies (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and between them and their two powerful neighbors (Iran and Iraq). The reasons for these renewed efforts can be found in the flat oil market. Given the stagnation of oil prices at low levels in the last several years, all the Gulf states have embarked on an attempt to maximize production capabilities which includes exploration of fields close to their borders. Several of these territorial disputes have been settled but others require more efforts and negotiations by the parties involved. These include the one between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and between the latter and Bahrain over the Hawar Islands. The United Nations forced a settlement in the Kuwaiti-Iraqi border dispute in 1994 but a change in the power configuration in the region could reactivate this dispute. The Iranian conflict with the United Arab Emirates over Abu Musa and the Tunbs remains unresolved.

In conclusion, this volume provides significant insights into the understanding and prediction of the current and future dynamics of the internal and external policies of the Gulf states. However, at least three important issues have not been discussed. First, with the exception of Iran, the other several Gulf states do not have clear rules of passing power from one leader to another. The succession question is likely to have an important impact on the future of the region. Second, the lack of fresh water resources in most of the Gulf states imposes severe restraints on economic development. Water policy should be an essential factor in any attempt to draw a scenario for the future of the Gulf. Third, there is very little discussion of Iraq. The editors explain this by pointing out that Baghdad's fate could be determined by the actions and decisions of one man (p. 5). This is true, but this can be applied, more or less, to the other Gulf states. Moreover, the political culture and geography of Iraq, among other attributes, can provide some leads to understanding and predicting its future.

Gawdat Bahgat is in the Department of Political Science, Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Indiana, PA.