The Pakistani/Afghan Background.

Asia Times Online on March 3 said al-Qaeda was preparing to establish a new base in Iraq. It said this was to position al-Qaeda to attack Europe and force Western powers to cut their strategic alliances with the US, and to serve as a nerve centre to bring new al-Qaeda groups into action in the Arab world. It said bin Laden's deputy and the group's ideologue, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, saw potential for the group to capitalise on a possible US war over Iran. It added: "Relocating the al-Qaeda leadership from the Afghan-Pakistani border areas would put it closer to this new epicenter. In addition, the relationship between al-Qaeda and the Taliban has cooled after the Taliban's decision to strike a deal with Pakistan over support for the insurgency in south-western Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda refuses to deal with any state, including Islamabad.

AToL said al-Qaeda's leadership was biding its time, "banking on sufficient chaos in Iran and Iraq for it to move to the Middle East... Wars devastate people, but they are a blessing for organizations like al-Qaeda. When the Pakistan Army led operations in the tribal areas to root out Taliban and al-Qaeda elements, all it did was alienate the people and make them actively support these groups. Radical clerics across Pakistan issued edicts in favor of al-Qaeda and against the army".

"As a result", AToL said, "many thousands of members of banned jihadi organizations who had been sitting idle joined hands with militants in North and South Waziristan. Likewise, the US invasion of Iraq served to mobilize jihadis to join either the Iraqi resistance or militant outfits in their country".

A manual called "Muswatul Jihad al-Afghani" (The Encyclopedia of Jihad) has 11 volumes and is authored by Abdul Hadi al-Iraqi. It is a reflection of al-Qaeda's tactical ideas and deals with chemical weapons and explosives and their application, such as planting them on bridges and at strategic installations to get optimum results. It is intended to equip international operations with clear tactical ideas on how upcoming battles should be fought. The encyclopedia is available in jihadi circles in book form as well as on compact discs. It was written in Arabic and translated into Pashto, Urdu and English.

Al-Qaeda envisages that groups will mushroom and then link in Egypt, Algeria, Palestine, Lebanon and Somalia, among other countries. They will then be oriented locally, rather than sent to Afghanistan or Iraq.

Al-Qaeda has shown the white American face of "Adam" in its videos. This Muslim convert sits next to Zawahiri and threatens "American devastation". This is a scare tactic, but such converts as Adam - many keep their change in faith a secret - are extremely difficult to track down in their own countries as they do not fit any standard "terror" profile. They will be some of al-Qaeda's new foot soldiers in the heart of Europe and the US.