The Number of Mobile Service Subscribers is Expected to Reach 39.4 Million in Korea by 2008.

DUBLIN, Ireland -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c31745) has announced the addition of Korean Mobile Market Forecast and Carrier Strategy 2003-2008 to their offering.

This report, as a regular report published twice in a year, provides mobile market forecasts of Korea, China, Japan and India, major strategic countries in Asia region, key players' strategies, business plans and future prospective. Followings are details of market data and market dynamics that are included in those reports.

Topics Covered

I. Market Forecast

II. Market Dynamics

III. Conclusions and Recommendations

List of Tables

List of Figures

Summary

The number of mobile service subscribers is expected to reach 38.25 million by the end of December 2005. Currently, Korean mobile market has reached the 'Peak Point' and has focused on replacement of the service provider in accordance with new service occurrence, rather than focusing on obtaining brand new customers. Forecasted CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) after 2005 is immaterially 1.49%. Considering this trend, the expected number of mobile service subscribers in Korea in 2008 is 39.4 million, which is 80.13% penetration rate of the total population in Korea.

Meanwhile, the market shares of three different mobile carriers (SKT 51%, KTF 32%, LGT 17%) are expected not to be changed much from the shares as of the end of 2004. Prepaid subscribers is expected to reach 532,000 in 2005 and will decrease to 171,000 by 2008, since mobile carriers are more likely to involve in gaining higher Data service ARPU than take care of prepaid subscribers in this saturated voice based market.

By maintaining low CAGR of 1.7%, starting from 2005, the number of CDMA1X/EV-DO and EV-DV subscribers will reach 37.19 million by 2007. In the event of commercialization of WCDMA service in 2005, the forecasted subscribers will increase from 250,000 in 2005 to 3.96 million in 2008. In the long-term perspective, due to the introduction of WCDMA (or HSDPA), there is a high possibility of shifting of current EV-DO subscribers to WCDMA (or HSDPA). For the current CDMA IS95A/B subscribers, all of them will move to other network and the number of subscribers will hit zero.

Since MNP (Mobile number portability) is fully opened to those mobile carriers in 2005, the average churn rate of three different mobile carriers is expected to be 1.96%, a little bit lower than 2004, and the forecasted churn rate for 2008 will drop to 1.5%.

Within 2005 overall ARPU of 42,160 KRW, forecasted data ARPU takes 7,833 KRW. If Korean mobile market keeps this trend, the expected overall ARPU of Korean mobile market by 2008 is 43,882KRW and data ARPU will take up 12,009 KRW from overall number. For data subscribers, the market grows at CAGR of 2.39% and every mobile service subscribers are expected to use data service in 2008. (As of first half of 2005, approximately 96.6% of all mobile service subscribers use data service.)

The forecasted total revenue of Korean mobile market in 2005 is 20 trillion 598.7 billion KRW and this market is expected to grow into as big as 25 trillion 880.8 billion KRW worth market with CAGR of 6.67%. Meanwhile, data revenue will grow from 3.1 trillion 851 billion KRW in 2005, with CAGR of 13.70%, to 5.3 trillion 510 billion KRW in 2008. In 2008 as data revenue takes approximately 19.5% of the total revenue, data revenue will take much bigger portion in total revenue.

Expected Capex (Capital Expenditure) of Korean mobile market is 2.882 trillion KRW in 2005 and 2.986 trillion KRW in 2008.

Companies Mentioned

--Samsung

--LG

--Pantech&Curitel

--Casio

--SKT

--SKTT

--KTF

--LGT

--Hyundai Motors

--Kia Motors

--Nokia

--Qualcomm

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c31745