The Kyoto Protocol: universal concern for climate change.

Scientific climate change models predict that in the next hundred years there will be a dramatic rise in the global temperature by 3.6[degrees]C. However, due to the uncertainty surrounding the measures humanity will take to tackle the change in climate, the variation in prognosis is considerable. According to one worst-case scenario, the temperature would rise by 5.8[degrees]C, which could lead to irreversible changes in ecosystems, a negative impact on the global environment, and a significant sea-level rise causing floods and widespread damage to human society through destruction of human settlements and infrastructures, as well as economic instability and massive food insecurity.

Scientific evidence indicates that during its millions of years of geological history, the Earth has experienced climate change several times due to long-term natural processes. However, the rapid climate change we have been experiencing during the last decades is the result of human activity. The so-called greenhouse gases, the product of industrial emissions, prevent the thermal infrared energy emitted by the Earth from directly escaping into space. In the long term, the Earth's surface must return as much energy as it receives from the sun so as to maintain a global energy balance. But greenhouse gases "blanket" the atmosphere, causing temperature imbalance and heating the atmosphere more than it would naturally be.

The First World Climate Conference, held in Geneva in 1979, presented the first evidence of the negative effects of human interference with the climate, and public concern about environmental disasters associated with climate change began to emerge. In the following decade, governmental efforts towards elaboration of the programmes of action dealing with climate change increased. A result of these joint efforts was the 1988 United Nations General Assembly resolution 43/53 urging the "Protection of global climate for present and future generations of mankind", in which it recognized climate change as a common concern for mankind. That same year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created, and two years later the Panel issued its First Assessment Report.

At the beginning of the 1990s, climate change had become a concern worldwide, although it seemed that some regions--those whose economies depended on agriculture for instance--might profit from the rising temperature. However, no country in the long term could benefit from this process, as economic downfalls in one region would inevitably lead to destructive changes in other parts of the world. Thus, there was an evident need to create a global treaty, combining the efforts of all nations in tackling the climate change. Negotiations conducted by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) continued for almost fifteen months, resulting in the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in May 1992. Later that year, the convention was opened for signature during the UN Conference on Environment and Development, better known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro, and entered into force on 21 March 1994.

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The Conference of the Parties (COP) to the Convention was held annually with the purpose of monitoring its implementation and elaboration of further measures in preventing climate change. After the Convention's adoption, Governments realized that its provisions would not be sufficient in dealing effectively with climate change. The decision of the first Conference (COP 1), known as the Berlin Mandate, represented the willingness of the Parties to create firmer, more detailed commitments for the countries in the form of a supplementary protocol to the Convention. This was adopted at the COP 3, held in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997, and the Kyoto Protocol was born.

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In general, parties to the Protocol must reduce or limit their emissions relative to their 1990 levels, although countries whose economies are in transition (EITs) may choose another base year, but any party may choose 1995 as a base year for its emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (S[F.sub.6]). According to the protocol's binding regulations, developed countries must reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 5 per cent by the end of the first commitment period of 2008-2012. However, reduction targets vary greatly within the group: for example, the Russian Federation and Ukraine are required only to stabilize their emissions, while Australia, Iceland and Norway may even increase emissions; and most European States, Canada, Japan and the United States are required to cut their emissions in order to achieve their group's 5-per-cent goal.

The Protocol's implementation is possible through three mechanisms. The joint implementation mechanism allows the so-called "Annex I Parties" (mainly industrialized countries, members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as well as EITs), to implement cooperative projects; while the emissions trading mechanism brings flexibility into the reduction process, as it allows industrialized countries to buy and sell emission credits among themselves. It also gives the Parties the opportunity to implement their reduction goals through cheaper means, allowing them to achieve overall cost-effectiveness, as the cost of emissions reduction varies from country to country. The Parties may also enhance their carbon sinks, which are less expensive abroad than at home. The clean development mechanism aims to enhance the transfer of environmentally friendly technologies and in general promote sustainable development. Industrialized countries would be able to finance emissions reduction projects in developing countries and, in turn, receive credits for this action. It was assumed that the first "demonstrable progress" by the Parties would be made by 2005, and the first progress report submitted by 1 January 2006. Overall. Annex I Parties succeeded in reducing their emission levels to their assigned amounts.

EIT countries have reduced their emissions, even while "Annex II Parties" (the original OECD member countries plus the European Union) increased theirs, although not very significantly.

It has been seven years since the Kyoto Protocol was elaborated and presented for signature. Since it was opened in 1997, there has been uncertainty about when the Protocol would enter into force, as its major condition has still not been fulfilled. As of April 2004, 124 countries have ratified, accepted, approved or acceded to the Protocol, but their total carbon dioxide emissions equal only 44.2 per cent, while 55 per cent is required for ratification. The ratification rate slowed in 2000-2001 due to the political debates and discontent about the Protocol's implementation. However, this does not allow the Parties to abrogate their commitments to the UNFCCC. Nations must continue to fulfil their promises according to the Convention's regulations.

The two main contributors to climate change--the Russian Federation and the United States--have not yet ratified the agreement. The United States has been the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases and is responsible for 36.1 per cent of the emissions; however, it withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in March 2001. The United States argued that scientific evidence of the climate change issue was not convincing enough for his country to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 7 per cent below the 1990 level, as this would burden the entire United States economy.

The next largest major producer of greenhouse gases is the Russian Federation, with a 17.4-per-cent share of emissions. During the World Climate Change Conference in Moscow in October 2003, the international community anticipated Russia becoming a leader in the emission-reducing process by ratifying the Protocol. However, that has not yet happened. Kyoto supporters argue that Russia would benefit from ratifying the agreement both by selling its carbon credits in the international market and becoming an efficient energy-user. At the same time, their opponents claim that the country's overall agriculture and economy would benefit from the temperature rise, and if the world's dependence on fossil fuels were significantly reduced once the Protocol is ratified, Russia would lose its oil-exporting profits.

Despite the common belief that there is only a small chance Russia will ratify the Protocol, Executive Director Klaus Topfer of the United Nations Environment Programme strongly hopes that it will support the Protocol very soon, and the official announcement could take place as early as December 2004 during the annual meeting on climate change in Buenos Aires. If this happens, the 55-per-cent emission quota would be covered, and the Protocol would finally enter into force.

Convention Timeline

1979  First World Climate Conference (WCC)
1988  IPCC established
1990  * IPCC and second WCC call for global treaty on climate change
      * September, UN General Assembly negotiations on a framework
        convention
1991  First meeting of the INC
1992  * May, INC adopts UNFCCC text
      * June, Convention opened for signature at Earth Summit
1994  March, Convention enters into force
1995  * March and April, COP 1 (Berlin, Germany)
      * March and April, Berlin Mandate

Protocol Timeline

1997  * December, COP 3 (Kyoto, Japan)
      * Kyoto Protocol adopted
1998  * November, COP 4 (Buenos Aires, Argentina)
      * Buenos Aires Plan of Action
2000  * November, COP 6 (The Hague, the Netherlands)
      * Talks based on the Action Plan break down
2001  * April, IPCC Third Assesment Report
      * July, COP 6 resumes (Bonn, Germany)
      * July, Bonn Agreements
2001  * October and November, COP 7 (Marrakesh, Morocco)
      * Marrakesh Accords
2002  August and September, progress since 1992 reviewed at World Summit
      on Sustainable Development
2002  October and November, COP 8 (New Delhi, India) Delhi Declaration

By Oksana Kim, for the Chronicle