The Killing Game.

Fighter production is transitioning from well-established aircraft to a new generation that offers major advances, in extreme cases combining short field performance, supercruise, thrust-vectoring and stealth. However, many air forces will be satisfied with upgrades and derivatives of established designs.

Illustrating the longevity of basically good fighter designs, Pakistan is purchasing a batch of up to 40 Chengdu F-7MGs, the latest Chinese development of the MiG-21.

The F-7MG is distinguished by spanwise wing extensions, producing a double-delta planform. Last November Chengdu showed a model of the proposed F-7MF with a ventral intake, allowing a larger nose antenna. Some thrust-vectoring Klimov RD-33N engines have been supplied for lightweight Chinese fighters.

A total of 125 Indian aircraft are being upgraded to Sokol's MiG-21-93 standard. The other such major contract is for Aerostar and Elbit to upgrade 110 MiG-21s to Lancer standard for the Romanian Air Force.

The staying-power of the MiG-21 may yet be surpassed by the Lockheed Martin F-16. Firm orders stand at 4285, with a current backlog of over 200.

The latest version ordered is the F-16C/D Block 60 for the United Arab Emirates, which required the development of conformal tanks. The other remarkable feature of the Block 60 is its General Electric F110-GE-132, providing a thrust of 144.6 kN. However, with a maximum weight of 22 680 kg, the F-16 Block 60 will have a high wing loading. Any future major development must surely be based on the 25 per cent larger composite wing of the F-16's Mitsubishi F-2 derivative.

Lockheed Martin is also to deliver 50 two-seat F-16Is to Israel (which has options on up to 60 more). The F-16I will have a 129.4 kN F100-PW-229 engine, Israeli avionics and the conformal tanks of the Block 60. Similar tanks and engines are to be fitted to the 50 Block 50+ aircraft for Greece.

Recent decisions for this series include that by Chile to buy up to twelve new-build F-16C/Ds (subject to AIM-120 availability), by Hungary to buy 24 ex-US Air Force F-16A/Bs and Italy to lease 34 ex-US Air Force F-16A/Bs.

Due to structural fatigue problems, the US Air Force is planning a Falcon Star life extension programme for 1187 F-16s, to take place between 2004 and 2014.

The Dassault Mirage 2000 flew five years after the F-16. Some 600 have so far been ordered. The maximum speed and ceiling of the Mirage 2000 are superior to those of the F-16.

The Mirage 2000-5 for Taiwan and Qatar is a multi-role version with a glass cockpit; French Air Force aircraft are being brought to a similar standard. The 2000-9 is a further development for the United Arab Emirates, with provisions for Alenia Marconi Systems PGM-500/2000 standoff attack weapons. The Mirage 2000-5 Mk II recently ordered by Greece has modular avionics and an improved weapon system.

The MiG-29 is Russia's closest equivalent of the F-16. It is admired for its low-speed handling characteristics and its helmet-mounted sight. On the other hand, for the basic MiG-29 the cockpit workload is excessive, internal fuel is totally inadequate and time-between-overhauls (TBO) is short for both engines and airframe.

The MiG Aircraft Product Support (Maps) company, jointly formed by MiG-MAPO, Dasa/Eads and Rosvoorouzhenie, is upgrading the 23 MiG-29s of the German Air Force. Aside from adding basic Western avionics, this is bringing the engine TBO toward 700 hours and that for the airframe toward 1600 hours. Similar upgrades are offered to Central European operators, in cooperation with Romania's Aerostar and Hungary's Danubian.

The Russian Air Force hopes to have 150 to 180 of its aircraft upgraded to MiG-29SMT or two-seat MiG-29UBT standard. This involves the addition of a dorsal tank with 2030 litres of fuel, a glass cockpit, a flight-refueling probe, the Phazotron N019M1 Zhuk-M radar and clearance for a wide range of air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons.

The naval-version MiG-29SMTK has folding wings and an arrester hook. A batch of 46 (presumably including some two-seat MiG-29UBKs) has been ordered by India, to operate from the former Admiral Gorshkov carrier. Possible developments include the introduction of the thrust-vectoring Klimov RD-43 engine in place of the standard RD-33.

Middleweights

The Boeing F/A-18 Hornet provided the international datum for a credible multi-role middleweight combat aircraft. It also set the modern standard for cockpit design. The F/A-18A/B/C/D as operated by nations such as Australia, Canada, Finland, Switzerland and the United States will remain viable for some years, given structural upgrades for early models. However, the line closed in August 2000.

The succeeding F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is a 25 per cent larger aircraft with more powerful General Electric F414 engines, improved warload-radius performance, and enhanced survivability, largely due to reduced radar cross section. The first operational squadron is scheduled to deploy aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln CVN-72 in 2002.

Sales prospects include Australia and (if the STOVL-JSF folds) Britain. The F/A-18E/F is offered with Eurojet EJ200 engines in place of F414s to meet the British Future Carrier-Borne Aircraft (FCBA) requirement. Although the Super Hornet must have a good chance in Australia, to replace the F/A-18A/B and later the F-111, elsewhere it has problems in price (currently $ 48 million) and fighter performance. The new aircraft is a retrograde step in terms of maximum speed, acceleration and some manoeuvrability parameters.

However, the US Navy (which can complement the F/A-18E/F with the Northrop Grumman F-14D until at least 2008) is firmly behind the programme, with 548 currently planned (including 288 two-seaters). Additional aircraft may be ordered for the tanker and electronic warfare roles, to replace the S-3B and EA-6B.

Like the F/A-18E/F, the Eurofighter EF2000 (`Typhoon' if sold outside Europe) features some degree of stealth. Combined with advances in sensors, armament and performance, this is claimed to make it second only to the F-22 as an air combat fighter.

The first of seven development aircraft (DA1) flew in 1994. A batch of five instrumented production aircraft (IPA) is now being built. It is planned that 620 EF2000s will be built in three tranches, the total consisting of 232 for Britain, 180 for Germany, 121 for Italy and 87 for Spain. The first tranche of 148 is under contract.

The initial EF2000 built to a basic air defence standard (BT002) is scheduled to fly in August 2001 and to be delivered in June 2002, followed by the first to full air defence standard (BS004) in December 2003. The first swing-role EF2000 (GS020) will be delivered in April 2005.

The EF2000 has been selected by Greece, which intends to order 60 aircraft with an option on 30 more. Future options include thrust-vectoring for its Eurojet 90 kN EJ200 engines. The nozzle is being developed by Spain's ITP and is to be flight tested on the X-31.

The Dassault Rafale was designed to be somewhat smaller and lighter than the EF2000, not only to reduce cost, but also to enable the same basic airframe design to land on carriers. The domestic version with 75 kN SNECMA M88-2 engines appears underpowered in comparison, but 90 kN M88-3s will redress the balance for exports. Like the EF2000, it is being cleared for service in three phases, F1 representing the initial air defence standard, F2 adding some air-to-ground capability (essential for exports) and F3 providing full multirole capability.

The launch market for Rafale is 212 for the French Air Force and 60 for the Navy. Roughly two-thirds will be twoseaters. The rear cockpit will have full flight controls (as in the Mirage 2000D), to allow the aircraft to be recovered if the pilot is incapacitated. Four prototypes were followed by a batch of 13, and in 1999 an order was placed for 28 aircraft, with 20 on option. The first two production Rafale Ms were delivered to the French Navy last December, and six more are scheduled for this year. The Rafale F2 for the French Air Force is due for service by the end of 2005.

Heavyweights

The Boeing F-15A/B Eagle long-range air superiority fighter entered service in 1974 and was superseded by the F-15C/D from 1979. The dual-role, two-seat F-15E followed in 1989. The F-15 has so far been exported only to Israel, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

The United States would like to keep the F-15E production line open. Congress ordered the procurement of five in FY 2000, and two more are to follow in FY 2001, with the last due for delivery in 2004. It is noteworthy that the US Air Force has yet to identify an F-15E replacement.

Saudi Arabia may order an attrition batch, but the only real alternative is South Korea, which needs 40 to 80 fighters. Boeing is proposing the F-15K, an improved F-15E with Raytheon APG-63(V1) radar, a Lockheed Martin Lantirn 2000 attack pod and the VSI JHMCS (Joint Helmet-Mounted Cueing System). Various engines are offered, including the Fl10-GE-132.

Boeing has also proposed to new Nato nations the F-15R, a refurbished F-15A/B taken out of desert storage and equipped with F100-PW-220 engines and Raytheon APG-70 radar.

The F-15's only rival is the Sukhoi Su-27, which is larger, has fly-by-wire controls and entered service later, at the end of 1984. The Su-27SK and two-seat Su-27UBK have been sold to China (48 referred to as J-11s, pending licence-production of up to 200), Vietnam (12) and Ethiopia (10).

The Su-30MK is an improved Su27SK with flight refuelling probe and advanced avionics. It is believed that 40 Su-30MKKs have been ordered by China. India has ordered 50 Su-30MKIs and is licensed to build 140 more. The Indian aircraft, which have Western avionics, are progressively being equipped with canards and thrust-vectoring.

The navalised Su-33 which entered service aboard Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov in 1994 may later be given a folding tail-plane and double-fold wing. The Su-33UB two-seat naval trainer has side-by-side seating, as developed for the Su-32FN maritime strike aircraft.

South Korea is being offered the Su-35 (formerly Su-27M) with canards, Phazotron NO-11M radar and Lyulka/Saturn AL-31FP engines with pitch/yaw thrust-vectoring. These represent a further development of the AL-31Fs of the Su-37 demonstrator, which had vectoring in pitch only.

New Lightweights

As noted earlier, Western Europe has embarked on a series of canard-delta fighters, the principal examples of which are the Eurofighter EF2000/Typhoon and Dassault Rafale.

The first operational aircraft of this configuration was the lightweight Saab/BAE Systems Gripen. However, the first prototype in this category was the IAI Lavi. This flew on the last day of 1986, but the programme was terminated under US pressure in 1988. The project is nonetheless worthy of note, as it may well have "inspired" China's Chengdu J-10, which has been flying covertly since March 1998.

The JAS39 Gripen became operational with the Swedish Air Force in 1997, and 204 (of the 300 approved by Sweden's Parliament) are now on order. A Nato-compatible export version with a flight refuelling probe is being marketed jointly with BAE Systems. Deliveries can begin from 2004. The Gripen has been selected by South Africa, with 9 two-seaters under contract and 19 single-seaters on option. If all 28 are purchased the line will remain open until at least 2012.

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The Gripen is being promoted in Central Europe and must be the political favourite in Austria, but the new Nato countries are under pressure to adopt US fighters. Due to its small size, the Gripen is relatively inexpensive, with a unit price of around $ 30 million. The Swedish Air Force has quoted an hourly cost of $ 2500 for fuel, servicing, maintenance and spares.

Since 1992 Sukhoi has been exhibiting models of a lightweight fighter project, currently designated S-56. This is effectively a miniature Su-35 with a single thrust-vectoring Lyulka AL-31FP engine. If the profits from the Su-27, Su30 and Su-35 exports can be used to develop this aircraft, the world will have a New Millennium (albeit non-stealthy) F-16. The US Air Force will then have to consider whether the Joint Strike Fighter (penalised by inter-service commonality demands) can compete.

Stealth Fighters

At time of writing, flight testing of the Boeing X-32 and Lockheed Martin X35 JSF concept demonstrator aircraft is continuing, with the aim of selecting the winner and starting the engineering and manufacturing development phase in September. A few months of STOVL testing can determine if either power-plant system is fundamentally unworkable, but whether it can demonstrate the dependability essential for front-line STOVL operation is questionable.

On current plans, there will be three basic JSF versions: conventional, carrier-capable and STOVL. All will be stealthy, with internal weapon bays. The US Air Force will buy 1763 to replace the F-16 and A-10, the Navy 480 to replace the F-14D and F/A-18C/D, and the Marine Corps will have 609 to replace the AV-8B and F/A-18C/D. Britain will probably have 150 to replace the Harrier GR7 and Sea Harrier FA2.

The Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor is an air superiority fighter with a secondary air-to-ground role. It combines a new generation of stealth, supercruise and thrust-vectoring. The F-22 is to replace the US Air Force F-15C/D, starting at the end of 2005. The first of two YF-22s flew in 1990, followed by the first of nine EMD aircraft in 1997. In 1999 the US Air Force ordered two production-representative test vehicles (PRTVs), but plans for six LRIP (low-rate initial production) F-22s were halted by Congress. These are now being built as PRTV-IIs.

An initial lot of ten production aircraft is planned, but the decision to proceed with LRIP is currently on hold. The US Air Force hopes to buy 339 F-22s (no two-seaters), but would like to add two more wings (presumably 144 aircraft plus attrition reserves), citing potential use in the SEAD (suppression of enemy air defences) role. At the end of 1999, Congress set limits of $18.88 billion for the EMD phase and $ 39.76 billion for US Air Force production.

Russia has so far responded to new US fighter developments only with two heavyweight demonstrators. The Sukhoi S-37 Golden Eagle has a forward-swept wing and may have potential as a carrier-based fighter, replacing the Su-33.The MiG 1.44 employs the canard-delta configuration that is currently popular in Western Europe, and might be described as a bigger EF2000. Whether either design will play a major role in the resurgence of Russian air power that is expected from 2008 onwards is unlikely to be known for some years.

In short

* "Most current fighter types offer little scope for development, but can be sustained by upgrades"

* "Some designs now entering service may only be an interim step, pending availability o stealth fighters"

* "Stealth fighters can be introduced in the latter half of this decade, but their future is not yet assured."