The Gulf: 5 million and counting.

It has been termed the "fastest growing refugee situation in modem history", and it does not take a historian to see that the present crisis in the Guff region has produced an unprecedented human exodus.

In terms of size, scope and speed of migration, as well as widespread death and suffering, the Gulf refugee crisis is unique. It has presented an enormous challenge to the world community to provide emergency money and supplies, as well as manpower, resources and, particularly, international commitment and cooperation to deliver relief across mountains, deserts and landmined terrains.

To date, the key role played by the UN and its relief agencies, working in concert with scores of Governments and private voluntary agencies, has saved tens of thousands of lives. Yet, even with such international cooperation, the present Gulf situation remains frighteningly grim.

"In human, economic and social terms, the devastation resulting from the war and the displacement of large numbers of people in the civil conflict which followed is incalculable", said Prince Sadruddin Aga Khan, the Secretary General's Executive Delegate to coordinate the UN Inter-Agency Humanitarian Programme for Iraq, Kuwait and Iraq's border areas, assessing the refugee crisis in mid-May.

Moreover, a grave shortage of funds exists for the thrice-updated UN Regional Humanitarian Plan of Action relating to the Crisis between Iraq and Kuwait, budgeted in mid-June 1991 at $448.9 million for four months of operations.

At that time, only a third of that amount had been pledged by donor nations, in spite of dire predictions of famine, disease and new migration. While new pledges of $80 million were made by donor nations on 12 June, the funding shortfall was still considered to be "alarming".

The overall picture

Since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait on 2 August 1990, some 5 million persons from 30 countries have been temporarily or permanently displaced. Hundreds of thousands more remain internally displaced inside Iraq and Kawait, their homes and cities destroyed and devastated during the Gulf war and its aftermath.

Following the 18 April Memorandum of Understanding between Iraq and the UN, a mass voluntary repatriation effort has begun, involving some 1.5 million refugees, mainly Iraqi Kurds, now living in temporary camps along the border with Turkey and in Iran. During that time, thousands of Kurds, mostly women and children, were reported to have died of starvation and exposure. In some areas, 800 fell victim daily to malnutrition and disease.

International relief officials in mid-June warned that health conditions there remained serious, making voluntary repatriation more difficult. Several epidemics, including cholera and measles, have broken out in Iraq and Kuwait due to the damage to the basic health and sanitation infrastructure.

Women and children, often comprising 80 per cent of some refugee populations, are especially vulnerable. Without massive immunization programmes, they may die from common but deadly diseases. Without immediate relief, UN officials fear for a further migration from the south of Iraq by mostly Shiite Moslems.

An environmental catastrophe in Kawait caused by massive numbers of burning oil wells and a gigantic oil spill into the Gulf waters also threaten the health of residents, as well as the country's ability to feed itself. The fires darken daytime skies, polluting the air and killing wildlife. This year's harvest in Iraq will most probably be lost.

Such severe problems are compounded by complicated political realities, which affect the mass repatriation plan for 1.5 million Kurds and 800,000 Shiites living near Iraq's Turkish and Iranian borders. Many Kurds are reported to be wary of returning to hunger, bombed-out villages and the spectre of civil unrest. "Refugees, including the Kurds, will not go back unless there is something to go back to", Sadruddin Aga Khan warned on 15 May.

The UN estimates that large numbers of refugees could remain in Iran and that between 20,000 to 50,000 could remain on the Iraq/turkey border, "To ensure the safety and well-being of refugees who are unwilling to repatriate, at least immediately, new sites must be established or existing camps significantly upgraded to provide better conditions for temporary asylum", Sadruddin Aga Khan further reported.

He added: "Given the rapidity of developments, and the over-riding preoccupation amongst refugees that their safety be assured upon return to Iraq, it is difficult to predict the overall pattern of repatriation of the Iraqi refugees. Although no such assurances of safety can be given at this point in time, it is evident that the hopes of many refugees have been raised."

Another thorny issue is the homeless status of thousands of Palestinians working in Kuwait prior to the invasion who are unable to re-enter the country. Without homes or the protection of a Government, this group now comes under the legal protection mandate of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). They must be considered as refugees under UNHCR's mandate if they are in need of international protection", High Commissioner Sadako Ogata declared in April.

"We're going to be in a state of emergency for a very long time," said Alfredo Witschi-Cestari, a senior UNHCR official in Geneva.

Early success

A logistical nightmare for relief workers in the Gulf area is the mixed identity and status of displaced persons. Before the war, there were 3 million foreign "guest workers" in Kawait and Iraq, including more than 1 million Yemenis, 700,000 Egyptians, 67,600 Pakistanis, 85,000 Bangladeshis, 85,000 Sri Lankans, 150,000 Indians and 30,000 Filipinos. Other workers were from the Sudan, Indo-China and, in smaller numbers, Europe and America. Many were forced to flee under attack, leaving behind possessions and identity papers.

The Gulf migration took place in three waves from August 1990 to May 1991. The first phase took place immediately following the 2 August invasion, causing a mass exodus of foreign nationals into Jordan.

Following a Jordanian request for help, UN Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar on 29 August designated the UN Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO) to coordinate UN relief efforts, in cooperation with UNHCR and other agencies, notably the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

By mid-September, 40 IOM flights were evacuating more than 8,000 people dally from Jordan to their countries of origin. In all, 700,000 nationals from 10 countries were repatriated in a logistical operation facilitated by Jordan. The operation's success was due in part to up-front cash funding from Jordan, which quickly established a centralized system and allowed host agencies like the Jordanian Red Crescent to work with UNHCR, UNDRO and the International Committee of the Red Cross, as well as with foreign Governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

By early October 1990, nine transit camps were established in Jordan, housing some 68,000 people every day. Meanwhile, other UN agencies such as the World Health Organization, the UN Children's Fund, the UN Development Programme, the UN Volunteers, the World Food Programme, and the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) were involved in the work, along with 37 NGOs.

The second wave

Relief officials were prepared when a second migration from Iraq began on 17 January, the day hostilities were launched. Revamping their regional plan, UNDRO made an appeal on 11 January for $38 million to feed and shelter 400,000 refugees in temporary camps in Syria, Turkey, Iran and Jordan, and then repatriate them.

The world responded and, within days, several camps with three months' supplies were in place. More significantly, a far smaller number of people-only 65,000left Iraq over the next three months, including 35,000 Iraqis who crossed the border into Iran.

"At first sight, the situation looks reasonably positive", UNHCR Refugees magazine editor Annick Roulet stated, summing up the optimistic forecast of relief officials at that time. Given the fragile nature of the situation, she noted cautiously: "Even the best-laid plans are apt to prove inadequate in such exceptional circumstances, as everyone involved in this vast humanitarian operation is all too well aware".

The Kurdish exodus

What no one anticipated was the Kurdish civil strife, which took place just after the end of the war.

On 5 April, UNDRO launched an emergency appeal for $137 million to help Iraqi Kurds fleeing towards the mountainous Turkish border, unreachable by car. As temperatures dropped, their numbers tripled within days, swamping relief efforts and resulting in many casualties.

In New York, the Security Council, in adopting resolution 688 (1991), demanded that Iraq immediately end the repression of civilians, particularly in Kurdish-populated areas, and insisted that Iraq allow international humanitarian organizations immediate access to all in need of assistance.

By 9 April, UNDRO had updated its plan and budget, requesting a total of $400.2 million to assist 1.5 million refugees. Of this, $238.5 million were needed by UNHCR to cover their most urgent needs.

The plan now outlined a bleak future for the Kurds: "In view of the presence of 1.1 million Iraqi nationals in Iran and on the Turkish border region, donors are requested to give urgent priority to immediate contributions for at least 75 per cent of the total appeal." The situation had become a "refugee emergency, it was reported. The needs are extremely urgent and demand immediate action".

Following a tour of the area, High Commissioner Ogata, visibly moved by what she saw, told reporters that the challenge was to respond in equal measure to this humanitarian crisis".

UNHCR officials in Iran expressed grave concern about their ability to help, stating: "Relief efforts lack nearly all essentials and it is difficult to keep pace with the need, though help is on its way."

A surprise move

On 16 April, the United States announced that it would send 10,000 American troops to build and protect refugee camps for the Kurds in northern Iraq.

Iraq rejected the United States move as an "unfounded attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq". The United States responded that only it and its coalition partners had the logistical capability to establish the camps.

On 18 April, Iraq and the UN signed an agreement to set up humanitarian centres" in both north and south.

The Memorandum of Understanding, signed in Baghdad by Executive Delegate Sadruddin Aga Khan and Iraqi Foreign Minister Ahmed Hussein, committed Iraq to "facilitate the safe passage of emergency relief commodities throughout the country". Iraq also agreed to a UN humanitarian presence on its soil, "wherever such presence may be needed". A subsequent agreement was reached on 25 May regarding deployment of a 500-strong UN guard contingent in Iraq.

The unarmed UN guards would act as "moral witnesses" to inspire confidence to the refugees, said Sadruddin Aga Khan.

UNHCR took control of the refugee camp set up by allied forces in Zakho, northern Iraq, on 13 May.

By mid-June, the UN repatriation effort showed signs of working. Thousands of Kurds were returning home to Iraq, although many expressed doubts about their safety.

On 26 June, High Commissioner Ogata reached an agreement with the United States to enable American troops to remain temporarily in northern Iraq to guarantee security to the Kurds "until the situation becomes less fragile".

The repatriation of the Kurds is only one part of the complex political picture that marks the Gulf refugee crisis. The plight of the Palestinians who formerly lived in Kuwait appears even harder to resolve quickly. Mrs. Ogata has said that their situation "is now very worrying. As a result of events during the war, we have seen a hardening of attitudes against the Palestinians in some quarters".

Dire predictions

There can be no disputing the alarming prognosis for the millions displaced by the Gulf War and its aftermath.

A mission to Iraq led by Sadruddin Aga Khan in July found "widespread and severe malnutrition among children there and an increase in cholera and typhoid". Most hospitals were partially dependent on generators. Two thirds of the generators in hospitals visited by the mission were out of order.

A Harvard University report on public health conditions inside postwar Iraq issued on 22 May projected that some 170,000 Iraqi children under five years of age "will die in the coming year from the delayed effects of the Gulf crisis". That figure represented a 100 per cent increase in infant and child mortality in Iraq.

The report also predicted a public health catastrophe", with a high possibility of famine. Epidemics of cholera, typhoid and gastroenteritis were considered likely to increase during the summer.

Destruction of electrical power supplies in Iraq was linked to lack of public health and sanitation. "Without electricity, water cannot be purified, sewage cannot be treated, water-borne diseases flourish and hospitals cannot cure treatable 111ness", the Harvard report stated.

"Iraq must embark on its reconstruction on a stable basis, or else the world community will be responsible for the fate of 18 million people, and it will be unable to do this on a long-term basis", Mr. Perez de Cuellar said on 12 June. The Security Council sanctions imposed on Iraq must be reconciled with the necessary humanitarian assistance, he added.

"As we can see, the situation inside Iraq is very serious", said Phillippe Boulle, head of the UNDRO office in New York. "There has been some improvement, with the Kurds especially. But we are in a critical phase and the money, is not coming quickly enough. The situation remains quite overwhelming."