The East & South - Pakistan & China.

The impact of Talibanisation is clearest in Pakistan. However, the "Taliban" ideology was initially created in the madrassas of Pakistan and then exported to Afghanistan. In that sense, the Talibanisation of Pakistan (i.e. mainly its provinces bordering Afghanistan) in the ideological sense occurred before that of Afghanistan. What is now happening is that the practical day-to-day realities of Talibanisation - in terms of implementation of Islamic strictures - are increasingly being demanded by the radical Islamists in Pakistan as well. And calls for its implementation are being spread rapidly because the Taliban, comprising mainly Pashtuns, have their ethnic counterparts in large numbers within Pakistan.

The implementation of the Taliban's policies in Afghanistan had an impact on Pakistan, which worsened social conditions accumulated since the 1980s, during the anti-Soviet jihad. Thus, while Pakistan has reaped some of the benefits of having its proxy militia control Afghanistan, there have been many disastrous side effects. Pakistan's "gun culture", which always existed in the Baluchistan and North West Frontier Provinces bordering Afghanistan, has metamorphosed into a "gun-religion-drug culture" a synergistic and far more devastating combination for Pakistani society. Easier movement of goods has allowed for the easier movement of drugs from Afghanistan, thus while smuggling of consumer items undermine Pakistan's economy, the trafficking of drugs undermines its society.

(The Afghan Transit Trade - ATT - carried out across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is the largest goods smuggling operation in the world. Its effects are felt across Pakistan. A wide range of goods, from electronics to food and fuel, are smuggled via Afghanistan to Pakistan from sources as wide ranging as Japan and the US. Because Afghanistan is land-locked, Pakistan is obliged by international law not to impose a tax on imports via its territory into Afghanistan or exports via its territory. The problem is that most of the time, both imports and exports stay in Pakistan. The ATT decreases government tax revenues at a time when Pakistan depends on loans from international organisations and its debt continues to rise. Additionally, it is devastating Pakistan's economy by destroying local industry and increasing unemployment).

Drug mafias along the border region, who are involved in the ATT as well, have become wealthier and gained political influence by donating funds to major political parties. Drug mafias also play a role in the increasing violence by funding and arming religious extremist organizations. Increasing violence between armed gangs in western Pakistan especially in Quetta and Peshawar is now spreading eastward into major cities like Karachi and Lahore. The number of drug addicts in Pakistani cities has risen dramatically from just a few hundred thousand ten years ago to a currently estimated 5 million, and these numbers are expected to increase dramatically. The increase in lawlessness and related corruption has also had a negative impact on Pakistan's economy.

Meanwhile, a nexus has developed between the religious extremist groups and the military establishment. The military used these groups to carry out its policy in Afghanistan and Kashmir, but the radicals wanted payback in terms of an increasing Islamisation of Pakistan. This nexus too began with the anti-Soviet jihad, when then military dictator Zia Ul Haq co-opted the radical groups to generate recruits to fight the Communists. The gradual Islamisation affected the military itself, where at present a significant chunk of lower and middle ranking officers and a bigger slice of the rank and file are thought to be ideologically aligned with the Islamist groups.

The top officers have also been divided into "mullah generals" and "liberal generals". There is, for instance, said to be a significant rift among the corps commanders about President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's decision to fall in line with the US in its confrontation with the Taliban. This rift is likely to widen when the Taliban is overthrown, when they are replaced by a regime which is less pro-Pakistani, and when Bush's "war against terrorism" turns its focus on the madrassas which created the Taliban.

If the war does not focus on the madrassas and other radical groups within Pakistan, in order to prevent a split between the generals and civil war in Pakistan, most observers believe it would only be a matter of time before there is another attack on the US. Either way, Pakistan is heading for a period of instability, compounded by the fact that it is a nuclear-armed state. Washington recognises the underlying implications, which is why one of the main subjects of discussion with Islamabad has been the security of the country's nuclear weapons.

China has been facing an intensified separatist by the Uighurs in its massive Xinjiang province, bordering Afghanistan. The Uighur resistance is motivated by lack of religious freedoms, close links to the recently independent Central Asian states and by Han Chinese encroachment into the region. China has dealt in a very tough manner with the Uighur separatists, executing everyone thought of acting on separatist beliefs.

Beijing hopes to construct a pipeline from Central Asia through Western China to further fuel the economic boom in the coastal regions of China and decrease dependence on sea routes for its energy needs. A separatist movement in western China could dampen plans for the pipeline. But China is still cautious about the ongoing build-up against the Taliban. It has not yet supported the Northern Alliance and has remained ambivalent over the UN sponsored resolutions against the Taliban. Instead China has chosen a different route by communicating it wishes to Pakistan, a close ally. It hopes that some degree of dialogue will prevent the Taliban's support and training of the separatists.