The Costs.

The various costs of the Iraq war to the US has been projected to reach $1.8 trillion in the near future, according to calculations in a new documentary on the Bush administration's policies, "No End in Sight", directed by Charles Ferguson. These may exclude the costs of the US-led cold war against the Iran-led axis including Syria.

There has been much talk of "Iran's intentions". Tehran says that, apart from its need of nuclear energy for civilian purposes, its intentions are to contain interventionist US power in the region, to form an alliance with the Shi'ite-led Iraqi regime to promote the idea of collective security in the Persian Gulf and to neutralise the national-security risks posed by the encircling US military, which plans to build a base near the Iranian border. The latter undertaking is ostensibly to disrupt the flow of Iranian arms into Iraq, but from Iran's standpoint, the plan is a convenient excuse for a long-term US presence and continued military occupation of Iraq.

Mosul Tribal Pact Against Neo-Salafis: The heads of the Shammar confederation of tribes, one of the largest in the Middle East, the Juburi tribes and other tribal groups in the province of Ninewa, whose capital in Mosul, on Sept. 16 announced an alliance for their US-backed fight against the Neo-Salafi groups including al-Qaeda. Theirs is similar to the tribal alliance in Anbar, which has driven most Neo-Salafis out of their province, and the one in Diyala province. Soon, US officials on Sept. 22 said, there will be such alliances in Salahuddin and other provinces where Neo-Salafis are active.

A curfew imposed on Mosul from late Sept. 14 because of potential threats from al-Qaeda to attack targets in the Sunni-dominated city was lifted on Sept. 17. Mosul Governor Duraid Kashmolah had announced on Sept. 14 that "because of threats from al-Qaeda, and to preserve the security of the city, a curfew was decided starting from late...[Sept. 14 to the morning of Sept. 17]". Mosul has about 3m inhabitants, mostly Sunni Arabs and Kurds, Christians, Yazidis and Sabe'ans. Ninewa is facing disputes between Arabs and Kurds yet to be resolved under article 140 of the permanent Iraqi constitution with a referendum on the territory set to be held before end-2007.

Deteriorating security had turned Mosul into a city of panic. Citizens erected barricades to the entrance of each neighbourhood after the recent attacks in the Sinjar area which claimed the lives of more than 500 Yezidi Kurds. Arab-Kurdish tension continues in Mosul.

In 2005, a violent conflict started between al-bu Mahal and al-Karabila, two major Sunni tribes populating the area around Qa'em in Anbar. One of these tribes backed al-Qaeda. Both tribes were hostile to the US and the Iraqi government. Only a few months later, al-Qaeda assassinated tribal leaders in Anbar and Kirkuk provinces because they called on their followers to join the Iraqi security forces. In a letter from a local al-Qaeda leader to Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi, he described those murders as having the anticipated intimidating effect. Al-Qaeda went further by carrying out a suicide attack against a police recruiting station, killing dozens of recruits. At that point the Americans made up their minds to support the tribes against al-Qaeda. The Iraqi government followed up on this effort.

It was only in 2006 that a group of tribal leaders, backed by the Americans and the Iraqi government, publicly challenged al-Qaeda. They announced the formation of a salvation council with the primary objective of liberating Anbar from al-Qaeda.

However, Sunni parties and groups such as the Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS), a hardline clerical organisation formed of people used to be allied to Saddam's Sunni/Ba'thist dictatorship, have sharply criticised such alliances and think they will fail. But peace and stability were brought back to Anbar in almost no time.

The success in Anbar has had many reasons. First, Iraqi culture and Islamic practice do not tolerate Neo-Salafi or Ja'fari Shi'ite extremism. Al-Qaeda's strategy has been to incite sectarian violence. The aftermath of the Samarra' Golden Mosque blast in February 2006 succeeded in provoking the Shi'ite militia Jaysh al-Mahdi (JaM) to establish death squads killing Sunni Arab civilians.

JaM attacks proved to the Sunnis that, although al-Qaeda could attack Shi'ites, it would not protect the Sunnis from Shi'ite retaliation. The sectarian violence caused the Sunni areas to become isolated from Shi'ite zones, thereby damaging the Sunni economy. Military operations in Qaeda-controlled areas caused huge losses in property and nearly brought daily life to a halt. That was apart from al-Qaeda's Talibanisation of those areas, including forced marriages, rape, armed robberies, etc (see fap3-IraqUSdebateSep17-07).