The China card. (Ferrous).

Ferrous markets have been relatively in balance for several months, but if domestic demand slows it will take ramped up Chinese buying to maintain that balance.

Speakers at the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) Fall Round-Table in Brussels noted the ever-increasing impact of China on the world's ferrous scrap markets.

John Neu of Hugo Neu Schnitzer Global Trade LLC, New York, referred to a "precariously perched" world scrap supply/demand balance that could be disturbed over the coming two months if China increases its overseas scrap purchases. Just before the late October BIR meeting in Brussels, Chinese buyers ordered upwards of 10 cargoes of scrap within a matter of days, according to Neu.

Meng Jianbin of the China Association of Metal Scrap Utilization told BIR attendees his country would need to melt 49 million metric tons of ferrous scrap by 2005, but would probably only generate 27 million metric tons within its own borders. Imports into China, which stood at slightly less than 10 million metric tons in 2001, could reach an annual value of more than $2.2 billion three years from now, he contended.

And BIR speaker Alberto Canevali of the European Union's Enterprise Directorate General hailed growth in China as "the real phenomenon."

Pricing

No. 1 Heavy Melt Composite Pricing

(Per gross ton, monthly average)

October 2001     $73.29
November         $64.97
December         $65.00
January 2002     $69.97
February         $76.58
March            $82.09
April            $92.03
May             $101.53
June            $101.60
July            $101.67
August          $101.67
September       $103.62
October         $103.12

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Source: American Metal Market