The China & Russia Dimensions.

Asia Times Online (ATO) recently said: "China will continue its similar maneuvers by using Pakistan to put pressure on India, its growing trade ties with Delhi notwithstanding. US-Russia relations have recently become visibly competitive in Central Asia. So Moscow would be receptive to making its own deals with Pakistan to create undercurrents within its neighborhood that would place it in a more competitive position vis-a-vis Washington. If all else fails, Pakistan will hope that the US-India nuclear deal faces a major hurdle either in the US Congress or with the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Chances are US legislators will be critical of the deal".

The Communist Party of India, which is a coalition partner with the Congress party-led government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, "will be watching the US Congress with rapt attention, and will be ready to pounce on the Indian government if it gives any further concessions to the Bush administration. The Communists are not too happy with the fact that the government has already placed 18 of India's 22 nuclear reactors under civilian control, thereby opening them for periodic inspections by the...[IAEA]. Whether the remaining eight reactors will be sufficient for the requirement of India's dynamic nuclear deterrence against China and Pakistan is likely to be a source of constant debate in India.

Pakistan knows that it just lost one round on the nuclear deal, but its long-standing battle to reach military parity with India will continue. ATO added: "Islamabad...might slow the pace of its co-operation in the 'war on terrorism' to put pressure on the US for a nuclear deal of its own". That option is risky, however, in view of hostility to such a deal in the US Congress - though the uncertainties related to the US anti-terror war favour Pakistan, especially as the battle in Iraq is putting constant pressure on Bush.

The US-India nuclear deal is viewed in Islamabad as a major setback for its vital interests. Through its strategic partnership with India, however, the Bush administration is focused on containing China, though containment through India is not enough. Hence the importance of the US getting Iran. A US air/missile attack on Iran will weaken the Shi'ite theocracy to an extent that the latter may eventually collapse. A permanent US military presence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Central Asia and potentially in Iran will get it closer to China. But there is no viable alternative to the theocracy in Iran, no opposition of consequence in the near future on which the US can depend. So the "regime change" project for Iran is a long-term objective, with the air/missile attack to be part of a war of attrition in the meantime.

Back to Islamabad, ATO said: "Pakistan envisages that [long-term] partnership [between the US and India] as just another maneuver of India to ensure that Pakistan does not achieve parity in the realm of nuclear as well as conventional military power. Musharraf definitely feels that the US-India...deal has weakened his own position vis-a-vis the super-hawks and ...[Islamists] in the Pakistani army. He might even feel betrayed by his friend George Bush".

"The most logical steps it must take", ATO said, "are toward democratization and to allow US national-security personnel to interview Khan directly. However, both these steps are not likely to be taken any time soon. Even if he were to decide to democratize Pakistan, Musharraf's credibility is so low in that regard that few in the United States would believe he was serious. The issue of allowing Khan to be interviewed by US officials is so explosive that Musharraf might not want to start a firestorm of protests by merely agreeing to it".

Pakistan will continue to expand its long-standing nuclear co-operation with China, or even broaden its nuclear horizons by approaching Russia. China is fully aware that the US is using its nuclear deal with India to put pressure on Beijing.

The US-India deal remains a hot topic in South Asia. And for once, Bush's three-day visit to India before his March 4 visit to Pakistan was not overshadowed by events in the US. While Bush emphasised his "great friendship" with Gen Musharraf, in his three-day visit to India he talked broadly about deepening strategic ties between the two great democracies, from trade to technology partnerships. The civilian nuclear deal offered the most potent example. Asked directly whether the US would offer Pakistan a civil nuclear deal, Bush said: "I explained that Pakistan and India are different countries with different needs and different histories".

While India was embraced as the world's biggest democracy, Bush pressed Musharraf to stand by elections next year, saying: "The president understands these elections need to be open and honest".

Faced with criticism of his recent arrests of opposition leaders, Musharraf defended his record and the fact he still wore his military uniform. Gen Musharraf said: "I am following constitutional norms where I have been allowed to wear this uniform until 2007... Sustainable democracy has been introduced in Pakistan and will prevail in Pakistan, especially beyond 2007". Even the way Bush arrived in the two countries was different. In India, Prime Miniser Singh broke protocol to greet Bush openly at the airport. In Pakistan, security concerns overshadowed the visit. On landing there was a complex subterfuge to mask Bush's movements. Islamabad was closed off and, outside the Marriott Hotel, flowerbeds of newly planted pansies were enclosed by barbed wire.

In Hyderabad Bush was startled when a water buffalo licked his finger but gamely agreed to pet him. He posed for photographs with a mango - an allusion to the opening of the US market to mangoes. National Security Adviser Steven Hadley quickly noted: "there's not a domestic mango industry of any size in the United States".