The Changing Muslim Parties - A New Survey.

Editor's Note: This new survey will examine the changes affecting Islamic parties throughout the Middle East, and the factors causing them to reassess their role in society for the coming decades. It will look at the way in which these groups are trying to adjust to rapidly shifting geo-political realities, amid operational and other constraints being imposed on them, as well as the manner in which they are trying to address the question of declining public support for extremist positions.

Starting with a regional overview, the survey will be carried out on a country-by-country basis, from Algeria to Yemen, and will end with an issue which will review the conclusions. Beginning with Vol. 39, the survey will last through Vol. 40 this year and carry on through Vol. 41 in 2001.

The survey comes at a time when the Middle East is facing the coming century with some optimism. Tensions and conflicts are receding, with the Arab-Israeli peace process gradually beginning to deliver what it promised at the first peace conference in Madrid in October 1991. With the oil price at high levels, economies across the region are performing well. This performance also has to do with a trend towards economic liberalisation and reform that is sweeping across the Middle East, and which will begin to yield results in the coming decade.

It is a time when most radical Islamic groups, especially the traditional ones like the Muslim Brotherhood and its earlier offshoots, are on the defensive in key countries like Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, etc. They are facing challenges to their existence, not only from the security services in the region, but also from their own lack of dynamism in terms of ideas and their inability to come fully to terms with the world order that has emerged since the end of the cold war (see following).

Indeed, the options facing Islamic groups in the region are bleak. Either they would have to abandon their radical politico-religious objectives - including the creation of Islamic states wherever they are operating - or they will have to face the wrath of the security services, which are getting better at targeting them after an initial period of difficulty in the early 1990s.

The option of abandoning objectives is the one that seems to appear attractive to the militant groups that are bigger and more politically astute - namely the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hizbollah, the Front Islamique du Salut of Algeria, etc. Others appear more determined to fight to the finish - i.e. groups like Gamaa Islamiyya of Egypt and the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) of Algeria - although the former too has been sending signals for some time indicating that it would be willing to abandon violence.

Yet there is a strong current of thought among regimes in the area are that all this amounts to little more than a charade, even by the bigger groups. Government security officials across the region are convinced that, if the regime shows the slightest sign of weakening or public opinion turns negative over economic issues, these groups would be quick to revert to their old slogans and radical objectives. For the foreseeable future, therefore, even if there is an effort by Islamic groups to merge with mainstream politics, they will be regarded with a high degree of suspicion by the regimes in the area.