The Challenges Of Terrorism - Iraq, Part 26 - Turkey.

Two obsessions in Ankara - a surge in Kurdish militant attacks and the killing of 1.5m Armenians in 1915-17 - have fused as a tipping point in US-Turkish relations affecting Iraq. After the killing of many Turkish soldiers and civilians since early October by the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - and failure of US and Iraqi forces to curb PKK attacks from bases in northern Iraq - the Turkish military has the green light to attack the rebels in Iraqi Kurdistan and thus destabilise the country's north.

Underlining trans-Atlantic unease over Iraq, UK forces last month completed withdrawal from their last position in Basra city. The pullout left UK troops based at one site, Basra airport, in an "over-watch" rather than a "combat" role. With the UK preparing to withdraw from the oil-rich south, the Shi'ite theocracy of Iran is being tempted to fill a resultant power vacuum there (see Part 25 in sbme3-Iraq-US-UKSep10-07).

The Tehran strategy, meanwhile, is to deter the US from attacking Iran. One of its moves is to form in Hizbullah's new enclave north of the Litani River in Lebanon and the Hamas ruled Gaza Strip two arms of a lethal pincer which can be used against Israel in the event of attack. Another is a restructuring of Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which the Bush administration is designating as a terrorist organisation (see news11-IranIRGC-Sep10-07). This is apart from the Shi'ite front in Iraq. But Iran is facing the challenge of an Arab-Persian conflict, with the US playing a role in the background (see news17-IranInArabPersianConfrntnOct22-07).

Turkey's parliament on Oct. 17 gave overwhelming approval to a military incursion into northern Iraq, as Baghdad and international calls for Ankara to show restraint grew louder. MPs voted 507 to 19 in favour of the military operation. The vote coincided with the strongest US appeal yet for Turkey not to send troops into Iraq, a move which could undermine the country's most stable region.

US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Oct. 17 backtracked on her support for a Congressional resolution on the Armenian genocide which has infuriated Ankara, amid increasing doubts over whether the measure would ever be approved. The Turkish parliamentary vote came in spite of a last-minute fall in support in Washington for the congressional bill which has infuriated the US allies of Turkey over the previous week. At least 10 US congressmen have withdrawn support for the genocide bill. By Oct. 17, the number of sponsors and co-sponsors for the non-binding bill had fallen to 215 - not enough to guarantee passage in the 435-member House of Representatives.

The Turkish army high command has been pushing for months for political backing to cross into northern Iraq. The vote raises the prospect of a large-scale Turkish invasion, though analysts say a big cross-border offensive is unlikely at present. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under intense public pressure to crush the PKK.

President George W. Bush on Oct. 17 warned Ankara against a military incursion, saying: "We are making it very clear to Turkey that we don't think it is in their interests to send troops into Iraq". Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer of NATO - of which Turkey is a key member with the alliance's second-largest armed forces - on Oct. 17 called Turkish President Abdullah Gul to express his concern about the impact of a cross-border operation.

Erdogan has said approval for a military incursion did not mean one would immediately follow the parliamentary vote. But the public mood in Turkey was such that the government had to appear determined to insist it would do whatever it took to halt the PKK attacks, even if it meant defying international opinion. Erdogan is due to meet with Bush at the White House in November.

A sign of the strength of feeling among the public about an upsurge in PKK attacks in Turkey was sharply illustrated by the response to an appeal for funds for the families of 13 soldiers killed in an encounter with the PKK on Oct. 7. The organisers of the appeal, known as "Support for the Heroes of the Counter-Terrorism Struggle", said they had raised more than YTL50m ($40m) by the afternoon of Oct. 17. Melih Meric, broadcasting director of Haberturk, which devoted most of its airtime to the appeal since it got under way, said: "We were expecting a big response, but not this much".

Parliament's vote gave the government a year for the offensive against the PKK, which wants to establish an autonomous Kurdish region in eastern Turkey. But officials in Baghdad, Washington and several other states were working strenuously to avert military action - while Ankara accuses Iraqi Kurds, who strongly support US policy, of turning a blind eye to Kurdish militancy.

Ankara says diplomatic efforts in the recent past have not succeeded. Turkey signed a security agreement with Iraq in September, but PKK attacks have since increased. The September agreement does not give Turkey the permission to strike at the PKK across the border. Iraqi PM Nuri Maliki on Oct. 17 called Erdogan and asked for more time and to express Baghdad's determination to take action against the PKK. An Iraqi government team went to Ankara on Oct. 18 to seek a diplomatic solution.

Maliki told Erdogan: "Let's do whatever necessary together". Erdogan met the delegation on Oct. 18 and said Ankara had no tolerance for more loss of time. That tone stood in contrast to remarks by Iraq's Sunni VP Tareq al-Hashemi, who before leaving Ankara on Oct. 17 told reporters: "There is a new atmosphere to stop the current crisis. The Iraqi government should be given a chance to prevent cross-border terror activities".

Turkey's Chief of Staff Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, speaking to reporters in Rome where he was on an official visit, on Oct. 17 said: "Hashemi says he got what he wanted, but I don't know what he got. Has he gone shopping? What has he done, or bought?"

Backing for Turkish military action came even from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was in Turkey on a three-day official visit and said: "It is important to note that the powers which have invaded Iraq are those primarily responsible for the terror activities and attacks because they control the country. We certainly support and back the decisions by the Turkish government in combat against terror and terror activities".

Along Turkey's border with Iraq, Gen. Ilker Basbug, commander of the Turkish Army, visited Besagac, a village in Sirnak Province where 12 civilians were killed by PKK rebels in late September. Basbug told villagers: "This is a crime against humanity. We share your grief and we would do whatever we can as the Turkish Armed Forces to heal your wounds. This is our duty".

Erdogan on Oct. 16 told a meeting of his Justice and Development Party (AKP): "I sincerely wish that this [parliamentary] motion will never be applied..., but we will act at the right time and under the right conditions. The sole target of a possible incursion is the terrorist organisation". The Oct. 17 move left Erdogan facing the most difficult foreign policy test of his career as he juggled military action with the need to avoid a breakdown in Turkey's relations with the US.

Erdogan's dilemma is further complicated by a mood of distrust between his government and the military. The general staff under Buyukanit clashed with the government this year over Turkey's political and social trajectory, prompting a snap July 22 election which saw Erdogan and his AKP returned with a huge mandate. The generals are demanding more freedom of manoeuvre in their battle with the PKK, in particular the ability to send forces into northern Iraq - a move to which the US is strongly opposed.

Erdogan's challenge is to appease military hawks in Ankara bent on pursuing the PKK, without reigniting a full-scale Turkish-Kurdish conflict, such as occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. He has to assuage public opinion; but he must achieve both without causing an irretrievable rift in US-Turkish relations as a result of retaliatory measures which could worsen the situation inside Iraq or restrict US access to Turkey's vital military infrastructure.

The FT on Oct. 17 quoted Ahmet Evin of Sabanci University as saying the confluence of an incursion into Iraq with the Armenian resolution posed a policy challenge which required flexibility and sophistication, adding: "Erdogan has to find a response that combines maximum efficiency with minimum damage".

Relations with the US have not been at such a point since early 2003, when Turkey refused to allow the invasion of Iraq from its territory. There were some signs they were improving. But Gen. Buyukanit has said military ties between Turkey and the US - the foundation on which their 50-year-old strategic partnership was built - would "never be the same again" if the Armenian resolution was adopted by Congress.

Erdogan is not a trigger-happy PM. He has said in the past that defeating the PKK would require more than a military response. His AKP did well in Kurdish areas in the July 22 election. In theory, this should give him leeway to temper the military response to terrorism with a political response to counter continuing separatist sentiment among Turkey's Kurds.

Omer Taspinar, a scholar at the Brookings Institution, argues that Erdogan needs to avoid playing into the hands of the PKK and the "deep state", a network of xenophobes, Kamalists and armchair generals who despise the Kurds and the government and would probably welcome a foreign policy fiasco. In a column, Taspinar wrote: "To succumb to populist and nationalist anger is the tempting and easy thing to do. Statesmanship, however, requires what is strategically sound rather than what is popular".