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The Asia Pacific Fund's Manager Medium-Term Outlook for the Region; Cautious Optimism - Defensive Growth and Value Cyclicals Investments Preferred.


Business Editors

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 14, 2003

Portfolio Manager of The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. (NYSE NYSE

See: New York Stock Exchange
, PCX (1) A bitmapped graphics file format that handles monochrome, 2-bit, 4-bit, 8-bit and 24-bit color and uses RLE to achieve compression ratios of approximately 1.1:1 to 1.5:1. Images with large blocks of solid colors compress best under the RLE method. See PC Paintbrush. : APB APB

See Accounting Principles Board (APB).
), James Squire James Squire (1754 - 16 May 1822), a convict transported to Australia, is credited with the first successful cultivation of hops in Australia at the turn of the 19th century, and is also considered to have founded Australia's first commercial brewery in 1798, though John Boston  is optimistic op·ti·mist  
n.
1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome.

2. A believer in philosophical optimism.



op
 about the medium-term outlook for Asia ex-Japan Asia Ex-Japan

The region of countries located in Southeast Asia, not including Japan. These countries are generally considered emerging markets and are of interest to investors looking for high-growth investment opportunities.
 equities and believes a defensive stock-picking strategy can capture attractive equity valuations and insulate investors from the worst ravages rav·age  
v. rav·aged, rav·ag·ing, rav·ages

v.tr.
1. To bring heavy destruction on; devastate: A tornado ravaged the town.

2.
 of market volatility.

"Higher returns and stronger balance sheets among Asia ex-Japan companies have yet to be rewarded by the markets," says James Squire, Portfolio Manager of The Asia Pacific Fund. "While Asian markets have shown less volatility to swings caused by external risk factors, such as the war in Iraq, compared to the developed markets of Europe and the U.S., the sustainability of a rally in Asia will be influenced largely by external factors.

"Event risk is high, at present, and the full impact of the SARS outbreak in the region, and indeed the rest of the world, has yet to be seen. Fear of catching this potentially fatal virus is significantly affecting the Hong Kong Hong Kong (hŏng kŏng), Mandarin Xianggang, special administrative region of China, formerly a British crown colony (2005 est. pop. 6,899,000), land area 422 sq mi (1,092 sq km), adjacent to Guangdong prov.  economy and the broader Asian tourist industry: airlines, hotels, fast-food and retail outlets have been hit the hardest," says Mr. Squire. "However, the Asia ex-Japan equity risk premium is more likely to fall from its current high of 9.9% than it is to rise further since so much bad news is already being discounted by the markets."

Following are Mr. Squire's main investment views on Asia ex-Japan equity markets:

Investment strategy: Sector and country rotation are dominating investing at the moment, and Squire recommends defensive stock selection as opposed to taking significant positions based on sector or country. He favors stocks in economically dominated themes, such as lowest cost producers and domestic consumption plays, market-dominated picks, such as restructuring and special situations, and selective higher beta (oversold Oversold

In technical analysis, it is a market in which the volume of selling that has occurred is greater than the fundamentals justify.

Notes:
It is the opposite of overbought.
) stocks.

Medium term - Favors South Korea over Taiwan: Taiwan valuations, if stock options are fully expensed, appear challenging. The banking system is weak with non-performing loans understated at most banks. Finally, the dominance of technology (60% of the market) is unhealthily high. Despite other concerns in Korea, the market has a broader base of stocks to choose from, and their valuations are significantly lower.

Asian valuations are attractive on a relative basis against the other major equity regions: Looking at Asian equity P/E P/E

See: Price/earnings ratio
 as a percent of US market forward P/E forward P/E

The price-earnings ratio of a firm's common stock calculated as the current stock price divided by estimated earnings per share for the coming year. Compare trailing P/E.
, the relative discount to is close to record lows, despite Asian equities having outperformed on a three-year basis. The region's forward P/Es appear more realistic than those of the developed markets in comparison to trailing P/Es - suggesting less aggressive earnings rebound.

Realistic economic growth and market earnings' expectations for 2003: Mr. Squire expects Asia ex-Japan regional earnings growth in the high single-digit range, annual economic growth of 6% for Asia and 4.8% for Asia (ex-China & India).

Local liquidity is extremely high: Thus far in 2003, approximately two-thirds of companies in Asia have been increasing their payout ratios and dividends. Local investors are contemplating taking advantage of a positive yield gap between Asian equity dividend yield (3.1%) and interest rates (interbank in·ter·bank  
adj.
Relating to, involving, or connecting two or more banks: interbank borrowing; an interbank network of automated teller machines. 
 2.8%). Asian stock market capitalization-to-deposits is close to record lows.

Asian equities trade at a low market implied growth rate (the MIGR). At 2.9%, the MIGR is less than nominal economic growth of the region (circa 8%) - the post-January 1998 average was 10.9% MIGR.

Medium-term, the S&P 500 is the most likely determinant for the Asian markets: There is a close correlation between Asian & US equity markets currently. This correlation does varying significantly over time. However, it is unlikely to "decouple" in the immediate future and the S&P500 is likely to continue to lead Asia over the near term:


Top Stock Picks

Cyclicals:              Singapore Exchange
Low Cost Producers:     Kingboard Chemicals
Large-Cap:              Korea Telecom
Restructuring:          Petrochina
Consumption:            Singapore Press
Defensives:             Ratchaburi Electricity
Best of Breed:          Samsung Electronic
Special Situations:     Guoco

Asset Allocations By Country as of 12 May, 2003
(benchmarked against the MSCI AC FE Free ex-Japan Index)

Hong Kong 30.4%         Neutral
Korea 28.6%             Neutral     Reduced recently
Taiwan 15.4%            Underweight
Singapore 11.6%         Overweight
Malaysia 6.4%           Underweight
India 2.3%              Overweight
Thailand 2.1%           Underweight
Indonesia 1.2%          Underweight
Cash 2.0%


About The Asia Pacific Fund

The Asia Pacific Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company, listed on the New York Stock Exchange New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

World's largest marketplace for securities. The exchange began as an informal meeting of 24 men in 1792 on what is now Wall Street in New York City.
 under the symbol "APB." The investment objective of the Fund is to achieve long-term capital appreciation through investment primarily in equity securities in the Asia Pacific countries (excluding Japan). The Fund is managed by Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited. For further information on The Asia Pacific Fund, please call our toll free line at 1-888-4-ASIA-PAC or visit www.asiapacificfund.com.
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Publication:Business Wire
Geographic Code:90ASI
Date:May 14, 2003
Words:786
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