The Arabs & Israelis Are Drifting Towards War.
*** The Bird Says Sharon Will End Unclean As Israeli Candidates For Prosecution Begin Hiring Top Lawyers
*** The Number Of Palestinian Human Bombers Will Rise As Despair Spreads
*** The Arab States That Cannot Join The War Physically And Militarily Will Be Forced By The Street To Fund What Will Inflict Heavy Toll On The Other Side
*** Oil Prices Will Remain High Until Alternative Fuels Become Viable
NICOSIA - With violence between Israelis and the Palestinians having entered what seems to be a vicious cycle Noun 1. vicious cycle - one trouble leads to another that aggravates the first
positive feedback, regeneration - feedback in phase with (augmenting) the input , APS sources say the prospects for a region-wide conflict are coming closer. They say the current government in Israel under hardline Likud Premier Ariel Sharon, and a Palestinian leadership under President Yasser Arafat surrounded by those who now are convinced that Israel will never return territory through negotiations, are incapable of moving out of this vicious cycle without external intervention. Such intervention is not likely, as the only power strong enough to do it, the US, has adopted an aloof posture - allowing the situation on the ground to drift gradually towards what might become the next Arab-Israeli war.
On the Arab side, Arafat is caught in a no-win situation Noun 1. no-win situation - a situation in which a favorable outcome is impossible; you are bound to lose whatever you do
situation - a complex or critical or unusual difficulty; "the dangerous situation developed suddenly"; "that's quite a situation"; "no human , the sources say. He is in no position to return to the negotiating table, as Sharon has made it clear that he will not be prepared to resume where his predecessor Ehud Barak left off. Thus he is left with no incentive whatsoever to make a deal. On the other hand, he is in no position to call for an open war against the Israelis, as that would remove what credibility he has left with the Western donors - including the US and Europe; he cannot afford to do that, particularly in the case of Europe, because Brussels has been increasingly taking a line favourable to the Palestinians in view of recent events.
Thus Arafat takes the only option he has, which is to allow the Palestinian street to take the war to the Israelis. It is the main leverage he has at the moment. On the street, the situation is desperate as the repressive measures put in place by the Israeli security apparatus have turned the Palestinian territories This article is about the Palestinian territories as a geopolitical phenomenon. For more on their geography, demographics and general history, see West Bank and Gaza Strip.
The Palestinian territories into a virtual prison - with hundreds of Palestinians having been killed since the Al Aqsa Intifada began in September 2000. Completely outclassed out·class
tr.v. out·classed, out·class·ing, out·class·es
To surpass decisively, so as to appear of a higher class.
Adj. 1. in terms of the modes and means of modern warfare Modern warfare involves the widespread use of highly advanced technology. As a term, it is normally taken as referring to conflicts involving one or more first world powers, within the modern electronic era. , the Palestinians are reverting to what can give them the advantage over the Israelis: the readiness to die, a readiness which the average Israeli on the street does not share. Hence, the suicide bomber Noun 1. suicide bomber - a terrorist who blows himself up in order to kill or injure other people
act of terrorism, terrorism, terrorist act - the calculated use of violence (or the threat of violence) against civilians in order to attain goals that are political has become most potent weapon in the hands of the Palestinians (see overleaf o·ver·leaf
On the other side of the page or leaf.
on the other side of the page
Adv. 1. ).
From the Israeli perspective, the situation is not much better, the sources point out. The peace camp has been silenced or rendered ineffective, with its main constituents having been integrated into the national unity government. The camp for confrontation is leading the political discourse. Even with the most hardline leader in Israel's history now entrenched en·trench also in·trench
v. en·trenched, en·trench·ing, en·trench·es
1. To provide with a trench, especially for the purpose of fortifying or defending.
2. as prime minister, there are claims that the government is going too soft on the Palestinians. Former premier Binyamin Netanyahu, a rival of Sharon in Likud, says the premier's national unity coalition is not doing enough to tackle the violence. The man regarded throughout the world as the face of Israeli moderation, Shimon Peres, has swayed between two extremes in recent months - sometimes calling for tougher measures against the Palestinians than Sharon was prepared to take, and sometimes sitting down with Arafat to negotiate an end to violence.
According to according to
1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians.
2. In keeping with: according to instructions.
3. the sources it is clear, however, that Sharon is getting cold feet. They say he is prepared to take the level of violence only up to a point and will not stomach a total war. They believe he gambled that his visit to the Haram For the municipality of Haram, see .
For the technical Islamic legal meaning, see .
The Arabic term ḥaram has a meaning of "sanctuary" or "holy site" in Islam. Al Sharif last year, which led to the renewal of the intifada, would end the slow moves towards territorial concessions. But now, the sources say, he may be realising that he went too far. Some reports have suggested that Sharon's visit was only an excuse for the violence to resume, not the spark which set it off. Others point out that Arafat had pleaded with then premier Barak to prevent Sharon from going to the holy site, but Barak said he could not prevent that as it was an internal political matter. Consequently, more than 100 Israelis have been killed (over 26 of them children) and over 550 Palestinians have died (including more than 170 children).
Arab Public Opinion Will Choose Between Total War & 'Suicide War': The sources believe the result of Sharon's actions and those of his government has caused a situation where both sides are drifting towards a full-fledged war between the Arabs and Israel. According to them, public opinion on both sides have been radicalised to an extent that it is no longer possible for the peace camp - at least in the short to medium-term - to have a meaningful impact. They say public opinion could be the determinant between total war and a "suicide war" in the region, with the option of total peace now no longer on the horizon.
A recent survey of Arab public opinion carried out by Zogby International Zogby International is a polling firm which was founded by John Zogby in 1984. References
1. ^ About us. Zogby. Retrieved on 2007-10-11. in Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia (sä`dē ərā`bēə, sou`–, sô–), officially Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, kingdom (2005 est. pop. , Kuwait, the UAE (Uninterruptible Application Error) The name given to a crash in Windows 3.0. In subsequent versions of Windows, a crash was called a "General Protection Fault," "Application Error" or "Illegal Operation." See crash in Windows and abend. , Egypt and Lebanon shows that Arab leaders may be underestimating public opinion on this issue, according to Shibley Telhami Shibley Telhami is a Professor of political science at the University of Maryland, College Park. He holds the Anwar Sadat chair for Peace. He is a specialist in the politics of the Middle East, especially the Israeli-Arab conflict. , professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland University of Maryland can refer to:
Given that Egypt was the first Arab state to make peace with Israel, it shows to some extent the level of disillusionment Disillusionment
loses innocence through WWI experience. [Am. Lit.: “The Killers”]
Angry Young Men
disillusioned postwar writers of Britain, such as Osborne and Amis. [Br. Lit. among Arabs. Telhami points out that the high ranking See Google bomb. of the Palestinian issue is not solely the result, as some speculate, of access to new satellite media, such as Qatar's 'Al Jazeera TV', because the results were robust even among people who don't watch such media, as in Egypt, where satellite receivers are scarce.
The sources acknowledge that the Arab regimes do not want war, for a number of reasons ranging from their strategic and economic vulnerabilities to the realistic assessment that the prospects of victory are remote. But the leaderships may have no choice but to opt for war, if it becomes clear that their own survival is being threatened by the likely upsurge of public opinion against them if they do nothing against the Jewish state.
Israel cannot afford a war either. This is because the strategic equation in the Middle East is not what it was during the 1960s or the early 1980s. It is no longer likely that pre-1967 Israel will be able to fight a war solely on Arab territory. A number of Arab states have access to ballistic missiles that can reach Israel; even if they are crude Scuds, they can still terrorise Verb 1. terrorise - coerce by violence or with threats
coerce, force, hale, pressure, squeeze - to cause to do through pressure or necessity, by physical, moral or intellectual means :"She forced him to take a job in the city"; "He squeezed her for the Israeli public - and there is no real defence against them, especially if used in large numbers. Taking a wider pan-Islamic rather than pan-Arab view, both Iran and Pakistan have advanced missile systems capable of reaching Israel, with the latter capable of mounting nuclear warheads on them. In the event of an all out war, Israel's capability to threaten with its nuclear arsenal may no longer have the impact that it once had.
On the other hand, the sources note, even if the key Arab regimes do not actively join a war, and even if only the Palestinians fight - the Arabs will be willing to provide money and other forms of assistance to allow the Palestinians to continue their "suicide war". In other words Adv. 1. in other words - otherwise stated; "in other words, we are broke"
put differently , they will be ready to facilitate the willingness of the Palestinians to sacrifice themselves against Israel. And the numbers of Palestinians ready to sacrifice themselves are on the rise, partly as a direct result of Sharon's policy of escalation which involves targeted attacks against leading figures having links with Hamas, Islamic Jihad, etc. Israel, for its part, has no real answer to the suicide bombs other than a further escalation through disproportionate retaliation (see this week's SBME SBME School of Biomedical Engineering (University of Tennessee, Memphis)
SBME State Board of Medical Examiners
SBME Society for Business and Management in Engineering
SBME Simulation-Based Medical Education
SBME Subic Bay Marine Exploratorium ).