The Arab Angle.

The Arab world is not seriously talking to Tehran, while Iran's growing regional power is worrisome to most of its regimes, especially those on the Arab side of the Gulf (GCC). Iran is no less suspicious of the attitude many Arab states have towards its interests.

With the potential for military confrontation increasing, the position of the Arabs is precarious. They would be caught in the crossfire, facing enormous pressure from the US to support measures against Iran. The Arabs of the GCC are avoiding even the hint of siding with the US and the West.

Iran is shaping a new regional reality, whereas most Arab regimes led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt want to preserve the status quo. Tehran holds strong cards in Shi'ite-led Iraq, while they side with the Sunni Arabs. Iran supports Syria increasingly, while most of them want to see Lebanon free of Iranian and Syrian influences. Iran supports Hizbullah in Lebanon against all odds; it publicly backs Hamas in Palestine; the Arabs want to see the Islamist group fail in Palestine.

Iran's emergence is the fruit of an astonishing paradox. This was expressed with unusual frankness by the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, at the Council on Foreign Relations in September 2005. He observed that Iran had reaped the benefits of the American war in Iraq, although it was and remained the main US enemy in the region.

Tehran knows now is the moment to increase its strategic leverage. The US, the UK and Israel seem to be a loss as to how to respond to Iranian ambitions. Anything they do might turn Iraq upside down should a confrontation with Iran develop violently. This could foil the US master plan, not only in Iraq, but throughout the region as well.

At the popular level in the region, Iran's radical discourse, unfolding against a background of increasingly hostile feelings towards American and Western policies in the region, is seen as an assertive response to American and Western arrogance. Given the accumulation of despair and anger, Arab and Islamic public opinion is unwilling to consider that extremist discourse or behaviour only leads to catastrophe, as was proven in the cases of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden.

As long as rage continues to control the public's mood, now that the US bias for Israel has become so obvious, populist discourse will be received with enthusiasm by the angry majority. What worries Arab states even more, is that Iran is not viewed in the region as an ordinary state.

Its aspirations and religious discourse are seen by neighbouring Arab regimes to be trespassing on their borders, and influencing Arab Shi'ites. Recently, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said Arab Shi'ites gave more allegiance to Iran than to their own countries. In this he spoke for many GCC and Lebanese politicians. They all fear that Iran is capable of mobilising local Shi'ites against their regimes.

There are many pending issues between Iran and the Arab states which must be settled. There is suspicion, even fear, hanging over the GCC states regarding Iran's military and strategic aspirations.

Arabs complain about Iranian interference in their internal affairs, from Iraq and Lebanon to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The issue of the three UAE islands which Iran still occupies stands out as a major dispute.

To Iranian eyes, on the other hand, the Arab outlook is seen as slipping towards favouritism for Western - especially US - policies. Arab interests are based on a totally different logic than these.

GCC states have been advised to open a dialogue with Tehran not only separately by each of the six Arab member-states but also collectively.