The Allies Of Convenience.

These are the countries that straddle the middle ground between friendship with the US and deep sympathy, either among factions of the political leadership or the public, for the radical Islamist cause. Prominent among countries that fall into this group include Sudan, Somalia and Yemen. But the classification of countries in this group can also evolve, with members moving either into the preferred allies camp or the rogue states camp.

For the moment, all indications are that Sudan and Yemen in particular are keen to move into the allied camp, or at least to demonstrate their friendship with the US by co-operating as fully as possible - at least in terms of their actions if not their words - in the war against terror. The regime of President Omar Hassan Al Bashir in Khartoum has provided extensive intelligence to the US on the Al Qaida network, gathered when Sudan was a haven for Osama Bin Ladin in the early-to-mid 1990s. It is also rolling up Islamist networks in the country with information support from the US. Politically, these moves converge well with Bashir's goal of marginalising the Islamists who were aligned with Shaikh Hassan Al Turabi, the former parliament speaker who is now politically sidelined. Sudan could move into the preferred ally category.

In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh has moved strongly against radical elements (see News Service No. 2). Provided his government follows through exactly as the US wishes, Yemen too could move into the preferred ally category. The situation in Somalia is different, with central control being limited and there are parallels with Afghanistan. There have been reports of US Special Forces already being sent on reconnaissance missions into the country. But the transition central government is willing to co-operate with the US. Chances are that any strikes against Somalia could be limited to specific small-scale operations by the Special Forces.