The Afghan Game Absorbs Many Players, Including Local Powers Who Doubt US Might:.

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NICOSIA - In the shifting sands of the game over Afghanistan and the global war on terrorism, there are now Middle Eastern powers which are entering this game motivated by doubts about the strength of the US or by the notion that the Afghan war is heralding the fall of the American empire. APS sources warn that those states and regimes with such notions are themselves apparently falling into a trap from which they may not have the capacity to come out. The following review of factional rivalries among the Afghan groups give subtle indications of mirages of opportunity which could turn out to be traps.

The Rome Group. To begin with, none of the Afghan factions other than that of Rome-based former Afghan King Mohammed Zahir Shah has perceived the reality about the Americans, the rare and youthful combination of American resilience and resolve - never mind the ignorance, people learn in the process. Of all the factions, this is the one whose leader has predicted that the US will not only win the global war on terrorism but will also become far stronger. However, some of the powerful members of his entourage are behaving in a way that alarms American strategists. US officials have noted that some members of Zahir Shah's entourage are more interested in securing choice seats at concerts by the Italian tenor Luciano Pavarotti than in what is going on in their country.

The Rome group has acquired some political credibility in the West, because those at its head are Westernised sophisticates, and also because the former king still holds a degree of legitimacy and credibility among the Pashtuns. The US has found it difficult to build bridges to the Pashtun mainstream, which still backs the Taliban, so for the time being at least Zahir Shah is the most viable alternative. Attempts to soften the Pashtuns through former warlords Abdul Haq and Hamid Karzai have failed, with Haq being assassinated and the latter harassed by Taliban forces.

The Mecca Group. This diplomatic initiative is being spearheaded by Lakhdar Brahimi, the experienced Algerian diplomat who is the UN's envoy for Afghanistan. During a visit to Pakistan in late October, Brahimi had suggested a meeting of Afghan leaders in Mecca. It has been reported that Pakistan and Iran may agree to the idea of talks in Mecca, and that the warring parties would find it difficult to reject or break a peace agreement once it is reached in the holy city. However, this is not the first time that a peace agreement has been reached in Mecca. A previous such accord, in the 1990s, floundered within weeks after it was negotiated. There will be opposition to a Mecca initiative from the opposition Northern Alliance (NA), which has strong sentiments against both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, seen as the countries that created and sustained the Taliban.

The Peshawar Group. Proposed by the Islamabad government, a meeting of Afghan leaders in the capital of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province is an attempt by President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to have

some influence over the make up of the regime that will replace the Taliban. But Pakistan's credibility is at an all time low among virtually all Afghans - with Islamabad having betrayed ever ethnic and sectarian community in that country over the past decade. Most importantly, the Pashtun dominated Taliban are upset with the Musharraf regime for its switch to the US. The thinking behind the Peshawar Group is strongly opposed by the NA, as well as by Iran, Russia and India - all of which are determined to minimise Pakistani input on the shape of the future Afghan regime.

The Cyprus Group. One of the oldest initiatives, the Cyprus Group represented an effort by Iran in the mid-1990s to bridge gaps between the Pashtuns and the other ethnic communities through Pashtun leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who was then living in exile in Tehran. This group used to have some credibility, and had engineered meetings between the factions. Nothing of lasting impact came out of such meetings. A revival of this group, perhaps under UN auspices if the Mecca initiative fails, is conceivable. But most observers believe that the Cyprus Group's validity has declined since Hekmatyar came out in support of the Taliban in recent weeks after the start of the US assault, distancing himself somewhat from his hosts in Iran in the process.

The Tehran Group. This is a result of the declining importance of the Hekmatyar option. It is important to note that the Tehran group has gained some credibility since the US indicated that it did not oppose such an initiative. This is happening on the margins of moves to improve relations between the US and Iran - with a meeting between US Secretary of State Colin Powell and Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi expected in the second week of November. But Iranian domestic politics may complicate issues. On Nov. 2, in what appeared to be a signal from the traditionalist faction opposed to rapprochement with America, the former US embassy in Tehran was opened as an exhibition with the remains of US helicopters that crashed on a failed mission to rescue hostages. On Nov. 3, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamen'i blasted Washington and said reformist theologians should revert to the true revolution. Yet the US has issued a new list of terror groups, including among the Mujahedin e-Khalq - a significant development, in view of the fact that the group is one which has violently opposed the theocracy since the 1980s.

The Ankara Group. Turkey has emerged as a key player in the Afghan scene after Sept. 11. It has offered to host a reconciliation meeting between the various Afghan factions, and has also pledged to support the US with ground forces if necessary. Washington regards Turkey as being a crucial component of any UN-mandated Islamic force that may need to be deployed in Afghan territory after the Taliban is overthrown. Turkey has long supported the Uzbeks of northern Afghanistan, who are of ethnic Turkic stock. Their leader Abdul Rashid Dostum had been in exile in Turkey until his recent return to the centre of the action at the head of Uzbek forces within the NA. The first major city likely to fall is Mazar-i-Sharif, the "capital" of the Uzbeks of Afghanistan.

The Beirut Group. This group reflects the "Arab Afghan" angle, i.e. the linkages between the Middle East and the Taliban via Osama Bin Ladin. It also reflects the way governments in the regions have adjusted their position since Sept. 11. Initially, amid uncertainty over Washington's reaction, there was blanket support for the US. But more recently, having reassessed the relative strengths of the US, the Taliban resistance and public opinion, some positions have been modified. Syria for instance is now strongly critical of the bombing of Afghanistan, focusing on the civilian deaths. But this may backfire, especially if Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon plays his cards right. The US, meanwhile, has linked a Palestinian radical group operating in Lebanon, namely the Asbat Al Ansar, to the Al Qaida of Bin Ladin.

The Baghdad Group. Various indirect connections between Baghdad and what happened on Sept. 11, the anthrax scare in the US, and the current bombing of Afghanistan have been suggested by the US media. Direct contacts between Iraqi intelligence agents and the lead hijacker Mohammed Atta as well as members of the Al Qaida network have been reported. Soon after the WTC/Pentagon attacks, US officials began suggesting that Iraq may be the next target for bombing after Afghanistan. In a significant statement on Nov. 7, US Secretary of State Colin Powell confirmed: "We must end Osama bin Ladin's terrorist threat to the world, and deal with the Taliban regime, who has given them haven... And nations such as Iraq, which have tried to pursue weapons of mass destruction, should not think that we will not be concerned about these activities, and will not turn our attention to them" (see this week's RIM).