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The 2012 world machine-tool output & consumption survey.

About the Survey

This is the 47th edition of an independent annual survey that collects statistics from machine-tool-producing countries and compares them in U.S. dollars. It is conducted by Joe Jablonowski, editor of this newsletter, and Nancy Eigel-Miller, research manager at Gardner Publications, Inc.

Methodology remains constant. Data comes from official sources including trade associations and government ministries. Local currencies are converted to U.S. dollars at average interbank rates for the entire year, not at end-of-year rates. For the complete methodology, revisions throughout the year, plus links to other sources, please visit www.gardnerweb. com/consum/survey.html. For detailed statistics, we recommend the Economic Handbook of the Manufacturing Technology Industry, published on CD-ROM by AMT (www.amtonline.org).

THE WORLD SURVEY AT A GLANCE

[paragraph] Dollar-volume production of machine tools around the world during 2011 grew at 35%. Output by the 28 principal producing countries was $92.7-billion. That represents a gain from 2010's $68.8-billion, which in turn had been an increase of one-quarter from 2009. The hole caused by the deep worldwide recession in 2009 was being filled.

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

[paragraph] Biggest percentage increases in production came from Japan, Germany, France, China, the United States, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, when measured in their own currencies. Many showed even steeper year-to-year percentage increases when their output is converted to U.S. dollars.

[paragraph] China's 32% boost in shipments cements its place as number-one producer. At $27.7-billion in estimated output in 2011, China is more than $9.3-billion ahead of second-place Japan. Germany ranks third among producing countries. Output from those top three account for 64% of 2011's total world output measured in this survey.

[paragraph] The United States had a solid 25% gain in production, which increased to $4.1-billion in 2011. Consumption grew at an even faster pace, up 53%, as imports also zoomed.

[paragraph] Largest consuming country in the world continues to be China, which installed an almost-unbelievable $38.4-billion worth of machine tools, one-third of it in imports. Looking at consumption on a per-capita basis China, with its huge population, in the past had ranked low. Now, with burgeoning local production and a continued low export pace, its expenditure per capita of $29/person/year puts it in the middle of the pack, with the likes of Canada and Belgium.

Rebound Complete

Taken as a whole, the global machine-tool-producing industry finished making its comeback from the precipitous decline of 2009, in which some countries saw production fall by half.

In 2011, total shipments by the national industries that participate in this World Machine Tool Output & Consumption Survey amounted to $92.7-billion, an increase of 35% over the $68.8-billion for 2010 (table, left). Moreover, that 2010 figure in turn represented a 26% gain over the dismal sum of $54.7-billion for 2009. So, last year's output just surpassed the total for 2008 when the downward slide started.

But what may be true for producers at large doesn't necessarily apply evenly across the board. Calamitous drops and subsequent rebounds never treat all participants equally.

Some weren't hit by the recess ion as hard as others. China is the classic case in point: between 2008 and 2009, when every other country in the survey saw output decline, China's increased 10%, and its market share thus climbed (graph, below).

Another aspect has been the rate of recovery--call it the "bounce-back" factor. In the 2008-to-2009 comparison, six countries suffered production crashes of 50% or more. Of those, Japan and Taiwan subsequently have been able to post substantial increases (see last columns in Production table); France and the Czech Republic have showed only moderate resilience; and Finland and Denmark continued to have slumps and only in the past year have been able to post increases.

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

United States production in that '08 '09 crash dropped almost as precipitously--down 44%--but it's managed a 50% comeback in 2010 and another 25% gain last year.

Other countries in the Americas haven't been able to regain production rates as quickly however.

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

One result of this uneven response to global market turmoil is a geographical shift in where most cutting and forming machine tools are made. During the recessionary 2009 and for several years prior, Asian countries produced around 48% of total world output while the 15 Western European countries in the CECIMO consortium built around 46%. In 2010 those Asia/Europe production shares shifted to 61% and 32%, respectively, and in 2011 the same percentages were seen (bar chart, above).

The China Factor

The 13th-century travelogue of Marco Polo's experiences in China gained avid attention in Europe. But after the first transcription its publisher quickly renamed it II Milione ("The Million"), in a nod to his audience. European readers, it seems, couldn't grasp the size and scope of the culture Polo described, so the title reflected the notion it was full of a 'million' lies.

Westerners today sometimes raise eyebrows at the pace of Chinese machine-tool expansion. Statistics here are reported in U.S. dollars rather than yuan renminbi by the national builders' trade association, and they reflect a continuing expansion of an industry strained to meet voracious domestic demand. China has been the world's biggest consumer of machine tools since 2002; back then imports satisfied much of its requirements.

Inevitably Chinese production of factory equipment grew as indigenous entities like Shenyang and Dalian MT Group integrated and expanded smaller factories and as builders in Taiwan, Japan and elsewhere opened Chinese facilities.

For 2011, Chinese output of machine tools is estimated at $27.7-billion, or more than the combined shipments of Italy, Korea, Taiwan, the U.S., Switzerland, Spain, and Austria.

A different view of the global machine-tool scene comes from looking at consumption. For the purposes of this survey, consumption is defined as a country's domestic production, less its exports, and plus its imports. It represents machines that have been installed.

In 2011 the United States showed the fastest growth rate in equipment consumption among all major indusrtrialized countries, with a 53% increase in installations compared to 2010. It remains a solid fourth in the world in machine-tool consumption, after China, Japan, and Germany.

It should be said, however, that the growth rates, both in production and in consumption, may be starting to retreat from their catch-up pace of the past two years. Recent reports from trade associations that measure orders for new machines show a slackening in the pace of bookings, as pent-up demand is starting to become satisfied.

Trade Increases

Whether output will continue at the current pace is unknown. What the WMTO&C Survey shows, however, is that imports and export activities in the past year have regained momentum.

Japan and Germany continue as the leading exporters of machine tools, but their percentage gains in 2011 exports were matched by the French, Koreans, Spaniards, Taiwanese, and several others. American exports grew 20%.

The top five countries on the Exports table all show a very high ratio of exports to production. That metric, the last column in the table, can provide an interesting perspective on a nation's reputation as a major supplier to outside countries. China, on the other hand, hardly exports at all; despite placing at sixth position with 2011 exports of nearly $2.4-billion, its shipments outside China are less than one-tenth of its production.

The ratios must be viewed with caution, though. Some entrepot nations like Belgium, Denmark, and Holland traditionally have exports that are far in excess of their production as they ship out machines that had been taken in for re-export. Similarly, the last column in the Imports table, which tracks imports as a percent of local consumption, can in some cases reflect port activity as much as import penetration. Nevertheless, survey figures provide insight to each country's proclivity toward offshore sourcing.

The United States with its very open market--showing an import penetration of 65%--ranks number two in dollar-volume imports behind China. American equipment consumption grew 53% last year, and its 71% change in imports suggests that much of that demand was filled from overseas.

High import-penetration rates are also evident in Mexico, Russia, France, Turkey, and India during 2011.

American dependence on foreign suppliers for its factory-equipment demand is also seen in its balance of trade in machine tools. The largest exporters typically top the trade-balance rankings, and the largest importers are at the bottom. At a minus-$2.5-billion for 2011, American trade balance worsened dramatically from a negative-$975-million in 2010. The U.S. has the second-poorest balance after China among countries that have domestic machine-tool-producing industries.

Dollar-volume balance in machine-tool trade for 2011 is seen in the table below. Compared to 2010, the largest increases in positive trade balance were made by usual-leader Japan and by Germany, Switzerland, and Taiwan.

Patterns of Consumption

If machine tools are the basic building blocks of manufacturing-based societies, then the rate at which a country installs new ones ought to say something about its pace of industrialization. For the past decade China has led the world in acquisition. For 2011 the pattern continues, and as the pie chart above shows, more than two-fifths of the output by value of the world's machine-tool producers has been put in place on Chinese factory floors.

Another, perhaps more subtle, pattern emerges: one of consolidation. In 2011 the top five consumer countries accounted for installing 70% of surveyed world output. By contrast, in 1995 the top five--namely the U.S., Germany, Japan, China, and Italy, in that order--purchased only 55% of total surveyed output.

One more way of looking at consumption is the amount each country spends compared to its population (right). Switzerland, at $163/Swiss, tops the list and has led for decades. China, with 1.3-billion people, not long ago had ranked with India at the bottom and now is in the middle.

The World Machine Tool Output & Consumption Survey presented in this newsletter also appears on the Internet at http://www.GardnerWeb.com/consump/survey.html. As data for the year just ended are revised, updates will be posted there.
Production

                         2011 (est.)
                                             2010 (rev.)
    Country          $-Millions   Cut-Form   $-Millions

1.  China              27,680.0    69-31%     20,910.0
2.  Japan              18,353.1    89-11%     11,971.4
3.  Germany            13,494.7    74-26%      9,488.8
4.  Italy               6,232.6    49-51%      5,017.9
5.  Korea, Rep. of      5,641.0    69-31%      4,498.0

6.  Taiwan              5,000.0    80-20%      3,877.0
7.  United States       4,161.1    73-27%      3,340.1
8.  Switzerland         3,462.7    84-16%      2,395.2
9.  Spain               1,053.3    64-36%        836.9
10. Austria             1,001.8    54-46%        844.0

11. France                930.7    61-39%        662.2
12. Brazil                873.4    81-19%        837.4
13. Turkey                668.0    25-75%        555.0
14. United Kingdom        658.0    72-28%        507.2
15. Canada               c639.3    60-40%       c546.8

16. India                 576.0    87-13%        512.0
17. Czech Republic        446.0    80-20%        372.0
18. Netherlands           400.7    20-80%        317.8
19. Belgium               375.6    20-80%        298.0
20. Russia                263.0    41-59%        219.0

21. Sweden                218.4    38-62%        207.9
22. Finland               166.9    20-80%        135.1
23. Mexico               c122.4    58-42%       c165.5
24. Australia             100.9    86-14%        113.6

25. Denmark                76.5    40-60%         72.8
26. Portugal               73.7    21-79%         66.2
27. Romania               u42.5    71-29%         42.5
28. Argentina              32.3    50-50%         29.0

    Total             $92,744.7              $68,839.3

                      Change    Change
                     in local   in U.S.
    Country          currency   dollars

1.  China               $         32%
2.  Japan              39%        53%
3.  Germany            35%        42%
4.  Italy              18%        24%
5.  Korea, Rep. of      $         25%

6.  Taiwan             29%        29%
7.  United States       $         25%
8.  Switzerland        23%        45%
9.  Spain              20%        26%
10. Austria            13%        19%

11. France             34%        41%
12. Brazil              $          4%
13. Turkey             20%        20%
14. United Kingdom     25%        30%
15. Canada             17%        17%

16. India              13%        13%
17. Czech Republic     20%        20%
18. Netherlands        20%        26%
19. Belgium            20%        26%
20. Russia             20%        20%

21. Sweden              0%         5%
22. Finland            18%        24%
23. Mexico              $        -26%
24. Australia           $        -11%

25. Denmark             0%         5%
26. Portugal            6%        11%
27. Romania             $          0%
28. Argentina           $         11%

    Total                         35%

u = unrevised from previous year but converted at current rates

c = circa; rough estimate from fragmentary reports.

$ = reported in U.S. dollars.

% = ratio of cutting/forming in some cases estimated from previous
reports

Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.

Consumption

                                                    Change    Change
                     2011 (est.)    2010 (rev.)    in local   in U.S.
    Country           $-Millions     $-Millions    currency   dollars

1.  China              38,370.0       28,480.0        $         35%
2.  Japan               7,620.5        4,889.8       41%        56%
3.  Germany             6,956.0        4,677.5       42%        49%
4.  United States       6,611.9        4,313.4        $         53%
5.  Korea, Rep. of      5,131.0        4,264.0        $         20%

6.  Italy               2,963.3        2,672.5        6%        11%
7.  India               2,352.0        1,775.0        $         33%
8.  Brazil              1,990.0        1,861.3        $          7%
9.  Taiwan              1,800.0        1,623.0       11%        11%
10. Mexico             c1,360.9       c1,060.4        $         28%

11. Russia              1,317.0        1,165.0       13%        13%
12. Turkey              1,285.0          864.9        $         49%
13. Switzerland         1,240.7          850.5       24%        46%
14. France              1,182.5          850.2       32%        39%
15. Canada             c1,143.6         c848.8        $         35%

16. Austria               632.2          446.3       35%        42%
17. United Kingdom        561.7          422.1       28%        33%
18. Spain                 451.5          473.4       -9%        -5%
19. Sweden                372.8          259.6       37%        44%
20. Netherlands           328.3          256.9       22%        28%

21. Belgium               301.9          252.9       14%        19%
22. Czech Republic        291.0          130.0        $        124%
23. Romania              u243.0          243.0        0%         0%
24. Argentina             211.5          146.3        $         45%
25. Australia             167.0          220.9        $        -24%

26. Finland               128.0          108.6       12%        18%
27. Portugal              104.3          115.2      -14%        -9%
28. Denmark                43.1           41.1        0%         5%

Apparent Consumption = local Production, less Exports, plus Imports

u = unrevised from previous year but converted at current rates.

c = circa; rough estimate from fragmentary reports.

$ = reported in U.S. dollars.

Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.

Exports

                                                        Change
                          2011 (est.)    2010 (rev.)   in local
    Country                $-Millions    $-Millions    currency

1.  Japan                   11,380.6       7,517.2       37%
2.  Germany                  9,460.2       6,721.0       34%
3.  Italy                    4,451.9       3,260.5       30%
4.  Taiwan                   4,000.0       2,960.0       35%
5.  Switzerland              2,955.1       2,058.7       22%

6.  China, Peoples Rep.      2,380.0       1,850.0        $
7.  Korea, Rep. of           2,301.0       1,678.0        $
8.  United States            1,874.0       1,559.6        $
9.  Spain                      918.9         641.2       36%
10. Belgium                    870.9         642.3       29%

11. Austria                    820.3         743.6        5%
12. United Kingdom             818.5         629.7       25%
13. France                     747.1         513.8       38%
14. Netherlands                484.1         401.3       15%
15. Czech Republic             473.0         441.0        7%

16. Turkey                     413.0         380.8        8%
17. Canada                    c266.2        c264.6        $
18. Sweden                     179.5         213.2      -20%
19. Finland                    139.1         112.6       18%
20. Brazil                     107.8         100.4        $

21. Denmark                     96.0          91.4        0%
22. Romania                    u85.2          85.2        $
23. Australia                   78.0          87.7        $
24. Russia                      64.0          60.0        $
25. Portugal                    50.1          43.7        9%

26. Mexico                     c30.6         c41.4        $
27. India                       28.0          22.0       27%
28. Argentina                   10.4          11.0        $

                          Change    Exports *
                          in U.S.    as % of
    Country               dollars   2011 Pdtn

1.  Japan                   51%        62%
2.  Germany                 41%        70%
3.  Italy                   37%        71%
4.  Taiwan                  35%        80%
5.  Switzerland             44%        85%

6.  China, Peoples Rep.     29%         9%
7.  Korea, Rep. of          37%        41%
8.  United States           20%        45%
9.  Spain                   43%        87%
10. Belgium                 36%       232%

11. Austria                 10%        82%
12. United Kingdom          30%       124%
13. France                  45%        80%
14. Netherlands             21%       121%
15. Czech Republic           7%       106%

16. Turkey                   8%        62%
17. Canada                   1%        42%
18. Sweden                 -16%        82%
19. Finland                 24%        83%
20. Brazil                   7%        12%

21. Denmark                  5%       125%
22. Romania                  0%       200%
23. Australia              -11%        77%
24. Russia                   7%         4%
25. Portugal                15%        68%

26. Mexico                 -26%        25%
27. India                   27%         5%
28. Argentina               -5%        32%

* = includes re-exported machines

u = unrevised from previous year but converted at current rates.

c = circa; rough estimate from fragmentary reports.

$ = reported in U.S. dollars.

Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.

Imports

                                                        Change
                          2011 (est.)    2010 (rev.)   in local
    Country                $-Millions    $-Millions    currency

1.  China, Peoples Rep.     13,070.0       9,420.0        $
2.  United States            4,324.8       2,532.9        $
3.  Germany                  2,921.5       1,909.7       46%
4.  India                    1,804.0       1,285.0       40%
5.  Korea, Rep. of           1,791.0       1,444.0        $

6.  Mexico                  c1,269.1        c936.3        $
7.  Brazil                   1,224.4       1,124.3        $
8.  Italy                    1,182.5         915.1       23%
9.  Russia                   1,118.0       1,006.0       11%
10. Turkey                   1,030.0         690.7       49%

11. France                     998.9         701.9       35%
12. Taiwan                     800.0         706.0       13%
13. Belgium                    797.2         597.3       27%
14. Canada                    c770.5        c566.5        $
15. Switzerland                733.1         514.0       21%

16. United Kingdom             722.2         544.6       28%
17. Japan                      648.0         435.6       35%
18. Austria                    450.6         345.9       24%
19. Netherlands                411.8         340.4       15%
20. Sweden                     333.9         264.9       20%

21. Czech Republic             318.0         199.0       60%
22. Spain                      317.2         277.7        9%
23. Romania                   u285.7         285.7        $
24. Argentina                  189.6         128.3        $
25. Australia                  144.0         195.1        $

26. Finland                    100.2          86.1       11%
27. Portugal                    80.7          92.7      -17%
28. Denmark                     62.6          59.6        0%

                          Change     Imports *
                          in U.S.   as % of '11
    Country               dollars     cnsmptn

1.  China, Peoples Rep.     39%         34%
2.  United States           71%         65%
3.  Germany                 53%         42%
4.  India                   40%         77%
5.  Korea, Rep. of          24%         35%

6.  Mexico                  36%         93%
7.  Brazil                  9%          62%
8.  Italy                   29%         40%
9.  Russia                  11%         85%
10. Turkey                  49%         80%

11. France                  42%         84%
12. Taiwan                  13%         44%
13. Belgium                 33%        264%
14. Canada                  36%         67%
15. Switzerland             43%         59%

16. United Kingdom          33%        129%
17. Japan                   49%          9%
18. Austria                 30%         71%
19. Netherlands             21%        125%
20. Sweden                  26%         90%

21. Czech Republic          60%        109%
22. Spain                   14%         70%
23. Romania                  0%        118%
24. Argentina               48%         90%
25. Australia              -26%         86%

26. Finland                 16%         78%
27. Portugal               -13%         77%
28. Denmark                  5%        145%

* = includes machines imported for re-export

u = unrevised from previous year but converted at current rates.

c = circa; rough estimate from fragmentary reports.

$= reported in U.S. dollars.

Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.

Trade Balance

in Millions of U.S. dollars *

      Country                 2011

1.    Japan                  10,732.6
2.    Germany                 6,538.7
3.    Italy                   3,269.3
4.    Taiwan                  3,200.0
5.    Switzerland             2,222.0
6.    Spain                     601.8
7.    Korea, Rep. of            510.0
8.    Austria                   369.6
9.    Czech Republic            155.0
10.   United Kingdom             96.3
11.   Belgium                    73.7
12.   Netherlands                72.3
13.   Finland                    39.0
14.   Denmark                    33.4
15.   Portugal                  -30.6
16.   Australia                 -66.1
17.   Sweden                   -154.4
18.   Argentina                -179.2
19.   Romania (u)              -200.5
20.   France                   -251.8
21.   Canada                   -504.4
22.   Turkey                   -617.0
23.   Russia                 -1,054.0
24.   Brazil                 -1,116.6
25.   Mexico                 -1,238.5
26.   India                  -1,776.0
27.   United States          -2,450.8
28.   China, Peoples Rep.   -10,690.0

* = Exports Minus Imports

u = unrevised from 2010

Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.

Per-Capita Consumption

                          2011
                       Consumption   Population    Spent
      Country          $-Millions       000s      $/capita

1.    Switzerland        1,240.7         7,604    $163.16
2.    Korea, Rep. of     5,131.0        48,508    $105.78
3.    Germany            6,956.0        82,329     $84.49
4.    Taiwan             1,800.0        22,974     $78.35
5.    Austria              632.2         8,215     $76.95

6.    Japan              7,620.5       127,078     $59.97
7.    Italy              2,963.3        58,126     $50.98
8.    Sweden               372.8         9,059     $41.16
9.    Canada             1,143.6        33,487     $34.15
10.   China             38,370.0     1,323,591     $28.99

11.   Belgium              301.9        10,414     $28.99
12.   Czech Republic       291.0        10,211     $28.50
13.   Finland              128.0         5,250     $24.38
14.   United States      6,611.9       307,212     $21.52
15.   Netherlands          328.3        16,715     $19.64

16.   France             1,182.5        64,420     $18.36
17.   Turkey             1,285.0        76,805     $16.73
18.   Mexico             1,360.9       111,211     $12.24
19.   Spain                451.5        40,525     $11.14
20.   Romania              243.0        22,215     $10.94

21.   Brazil             1,990.0       198,739     $10.01
22.   Portugal             104.3        10,707      $9.75
23.   Russia             1,317.0       140,041      $9.40
24.   United Kingdom       561.7        61,113      $9.19
25.   Australia            167.0        21,262      $7.85

26.   Denmark               43.1         5,500      $7.84
27.   Argentina            211.5        40,913      $5.17
28.   India              2,352.0     1,156,897      $2.03

Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.

Five Countries Consume 70% of World Output

China       41%
Germany      8%
U.S.         7%
Japan        8%
Korea        6%
All Other   30%

Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.

Note: Table made from pie chart.
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Copyright 2012 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

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