The 2012 world machine-tool output & consumption survey.About the SurveyThis is the 47th edition of an independent annual survey that collects statistics from machine-tool-producing countries and compares them in U.S. dollars. It is conducted by Joe Jablonowski, editor of this newsletter, and Nancy Eigel-Miller, research manager at Gardner Publications, Inc. Methodology remains constant. Data comes from official sources including trade associations and government ministries. Local currencies are converted to U.S. dollars at average interbank rates for the entire year, not at end-of-year rates. For the complete methodology, revisions throughout the year, plus links to other sources, please visit www.gardnerweb. com/consum/survey.html. For detailed statistics, we recommend the Economic Handbook of the Manufacturing Technology Industry, published on CD-ROM by AMT (www.amtonline.org). THE WORLD SURVEY AT A GLANCE [paragraph] Dollar-volume production of machine tools around the world during 2011 grew at 35%. Output by the 28 principal producing countries was $92.7-billion. That represents a gain from 2010's $68.8-billion, which in turn had been an increase of one-quarter from 2009. The hole caused by the deep worldwide recession in 2009 was being filled. [GRAPHIC OMITTED] [paragraph] Biggest percentage increases in production came from Japan, Germany, France, China, the United States, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, when measured in their own currencies. Many showed even steeper year-to-year percentage increases when their output is converted to U.S. dollars. [paragraph] China's 32% boost in shipments cements its place as number-one producer. At $27.7-billion in estimated output in 2011, China is more than $9.3-billion ahead of second-place Japan. Germany ranks third among producing countries. Output from those top three account for 64% of 2011's total world output measured in this survey. [paragraph] The United States had a solid 25% gain in production, which increased to $4.1-billion in 2011. Consumption grew at an even faster pace, up 53%, as imports also zoomed. [paragraph] Largest consuming country in the world continues to be China, which installed an almost-unbelievable $38.4-billion worth of machine tools, one-third of it in imports. Looking at consumption on a per-capita basis China, with its huge population, in the past had ranked low. Now, with burgeoning local production and a continued low export pace, its expenditure per capita of $29/person/year puts it in the middle of the pack, with the likes of Canada and Belgium. Rebound Complete Taken as a whole, the global machine-tool-producing industry finished making its comeback from the precipitous decline of 2009, in which some countries saw production fall by half. In 2011, total shipments by the national industries that participate in this World Machine Tool Output & Consumption Survey amounted to $92.7-billion, an increase of 35% over the $68.8-billion for 2010 (table, left). Moreover, that 2010 figure in turn represented a 26% gain over the dismal sum of $54.7-billion for 2009. So, last year's output just surpassed the total for 2008 when the downward slide started. But what may be true for producers at large doesn't necessarily apply evenly across the board. Calamitous drops and subsequent rebounds never treat all participants equally. Some weren't hit by the recess ion as hard as others. China is the classic case in point: between 2008 and 2009, when every other country in the survey saw output decline, China's increased 10%, and its market share thus climbed (graph, below). Another aspect has been the rate of recovery--call it the "bounce-back" factor. In the 2008-to-2009 comparison, six countries suffered production crashes of 50% or more. Of those, Japan and Taiwan subsequently have been able to post substantial increases (see last columns in Production table); France and the Czech Republic have showed only moderate resilience; and Finland and Denmark continued to have slumps and only in the past year have been able to post increases. [GRAPHIC OMITTED] United States production in that '08 '09 crash dropped almost as precipitously--down 44%--but it's managed a 50% comeback in 2010 and another 25% gain last year. Other countries in the Americas haven't been able to regain production rates as quickly however. [GRAPHIC OMITTED] One result of this uneven response to global market turmoil is a geographical shift in where most cutting and forming machine tools are made. During the recessionary 2009 and for several years prior, Asian countries produced around 48% of total world output while the 15 Western European countries in the CECIMO consortium built around 46%. In 2010 those Asia/Europe production shares shifted to 61% and 32%, respectively, and in 2011 the same percentages were seen (bar chart, above). The China Factor The 13th-century travelogue of Marco Polo's experiences in China gained avid attention in Europe. But after the first transcription its publisher quickly renamed it II Milione ("The Million"), in a nod to his audience. European readers, it seems, couldn't grasp the size and scope of the culture Polo described, so the title reflected the notion it was full of a 'million' lies. Westerners today sometimes raise eyebrows at the pace of Chinese machine-tool expansion. Statistics here are reported in U.S. dollars rather than yuan renminbi by the national builders' trade association, and they reflect a continuing expansion of an industry strained to meet voracious domestic demand. China has been the world's biggest consumer of machine tools since 2002; back then imports satisfied much of its requirements. Inevitably Chinese production of factory equipment grew as indigenous entities like Shenyang and Dalian MT Group integrated and expanded smaller factories and as builders in Taiwan, Japan and elsewhere opened Chinese facilities. For 2011, Chinese output of machine tools is estimated at $27.7-billion, or more than the combined shipments of Italy, Korea, Taiwan, the U.S., Switzerland, Spain, and Austria. A different view of the global machine-tool scene comes from looking at consumption. For the purposes of this survey, consumption is defined as a country's domestic production, less its exports, and plus its imports. It represents machines that have been installed. In 2011 the United States showed the fastest growth rate in equipment consumption among all major indusrtrialized countries, with a 53% increase in installations compared to 2010. It remains a solid fourth in the world in machine-tool consumption, after China, Japan, and Germany. It should be said, however, that the growth rates, both in production and in consumption, may be starting to retreat from their catch-up pace of the past two years. Recent reports from trade associations that measure orders for new machines show a slackening in the pace of bookings, as pent-up demand is starting to become satisfied. Trade Increases Whether output will continue at the current pace is unknown. What the WMTO&C Survey shows, however, is that imports and export activities in the past year have regained momentum. Japan and Germany continue as the leading exporters of machine tools, but their percentage gains in 2011 exports were matched by the French, Koreans, Spaniards, Taiwanese, and several others. American exports grew 20%. The top five countries on the Exports table all show a very high ratio of exports to production. That metric, the last column in the table, can provide an interesting perspective on a nation's reputation as a major supplier to outside countries. China, on the other hand, hardly exports at all; despite placing at sixth position with 2011 exports of nearly $2.4-billion, its shipments outside China are less than one-tenth of its production. The ratios must be viewed with caution, though. Some entrepot nations like Belgium, Denmark, and Holland traditionally have exports that are far in excess of their production as they ship out machines that had been taken in for re-export. Similarly, the last column in the Imports table, which tracks imports as a percent of local consumption, can in some cases reflect port activity as much as import penetration. Nevertheless, survey figures provide insight to each country's proclivity toward offshore sourcing. The United States with its very open market--showing an import penetration of 65%--ranks number two in dollar-volume imports behind China. American equipment consumption grew 53% last year, and its 71% change in imports suggests that much of that demand was filled from overseas. High import-penetration rates are also evident in Mexico, Russia, France, Turkey, and India during 2011. American dependence on foreign suppliers for its factory-equipment demand is also seen in its balance of trade in machine tools. The largest exporters typically top the trade-balance rankings, and the largest importers are at the bottom. At a minus-$2.5-billion for 2011, American trade balance worsened dramatically from a negative-$975-million in 2010. The U.S. has the second-poorest balance after China among countries that have domestic machine-tool-producing industries. Dollar-volume balance in machine-tool trade for 2011 is seen in the table below. Compared to 2010, the largest increases in positive trade balance were made by usual-leader Japan and by Germany, Switzerland, and Taiwan. Patterns of Consumption If machine tools are the basic building blocks of manufacturing-based societies, then the rate at which a country installs new ones ought to say something about its pace of industrialization. For the past decade China has led the world in acquisition. For 2011 the pattern continues, and as the pie chart above shows, more than two-fifths of the output by value of the world's machine-tool producers has been put in place on Chinese factory floors. Another, perhaps more subtle, pattern emerges: one of consolidation. In 2011 the top five consumer countries accounted for installing 70% of surveyed world output. By contrast, in 1995 the top five--namely the U.S., Germany, Japan, China, and Italy, in that order--purchased only 55% of total surveyed output. One more way of looking at consumption is the amount each country spends compared to its population (right). Switzerland, at $163/Swiss, tops the list and has led for decades. China, with 1.3-billion people, not long ago had ranked with India at the bottom and now is in the middle. The World Machine Tool Output & Consumption Survey presented in this newsletter also appears on the Internet at http://www.GardnerWeb.com/consump/survey.html. As data for the year just ended are revised, updates will be posted there.
Production
2011 (est.)
2010 (rev.)
Country $-Millions Cut-Form $-Millions
1. China 27,680.0 69-31% 20,910.0
2. Japan 18,353.1 89-11% 11,971.4
3. Germany 13,494.7 74-26% 9,488.8
4. Italy 6,232.6 49-51% 5,017.9
5. Korea, Rep. of 5,641.0 69-31% 4,498.0
6. Taiwan 5,000.0 80-20% 3,877.0
7. United States 4,161.1 73-27% 3,340.1
8. Switzerland 3,462.7 84-16% 2,395.2
9. Spain 1,053.3 64-36% 836.9
10. Austria 1,001.8 54-46% 844.0
11. France 930.7 61-39% 662.2
12. Brazil 873.4 81-19% 837.4
13. Turkey 668.0 25-75% 555.0
14. United Kingdom 658.0 72-28% 507.2
15. Canada c639.3 60-40% c546.8
16. India 576.0 87-13% 512.0
17. Czech Republic 446.0 80-20% 372.0
18. Netherlands 400.7 20-80% 317.8
19. Belgium 375.6 20-80% 298.0
20. Russia 263.0 41-59% 219.0
21. Sweden 218.4 38-62% 207.9
22. Finland 166.9 20-80% 135.1
23. Mexico c122.4 58-42% c165.5
24. Australia 100.9 86-14% 113.6
25. Denmark 76.5 40-60% 72.8
26. Portugal 73.7 21-79% 66.2
27. Romania u42.5 71-29% 42.5
28. Argentina 32.3 50-50% 29.0
Total $92,744.7 $68,839.3
Change Change
in local in U.S.
Country currency dollars
1. China $ 32%
2. Japan 39% 53%
3. Germany 35% 42%
4. Italy 18% 24%
5. Korea, Rep. of $ 25%
6. Taiwan 29% 29%
7. United States $ 25%
8. Switzerland 23% 45%
9. Spain 20% 26%
10. Austria 13% 19%
11. France 34% 41%
12. Brazil $ 4%
13. Turkey 20% 20%
14. United Kingdom 25% 30%
15. Canada 17% 17%
16. India 13% 13%
17. Czech Republic 20% 20%
18. Netherlands 20% 26%
19. Belgium 20% 26%
20. Russia 20% 20%
21. Sweden 0% 5%
22. Finland 18% 24%
23. Mexico $ -26%
24. Australia $ -11%
25. Denmark 0% 5%
26. Portugal 6% 11%
27. Romania $ 0%
28. Argentina $ 11%
Total 35%
u = unrevised from previous year but converted at current rates
c = circa; rough estimate from fragmentary reports.
$ = reported in U.S. dollars.
% = ratio of cutting/forming in some cases estimated from previous
reports
Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.
Consumption
Change Change
2011 (est.) 2010 (rev.) in local in U.S.
Country $-Millions $-Millions currency dollars
1. China 38,370.0 28,480.0 $ 35%
2. Japan 7,620.5 4,889.8 41% 56%
3. Germany 6,956.0 4,677.5 42% 49%
4. United States 6,611.9 4,313.4 $ 53%
5. Korea, Rep. of 5,131.0 4,264.0 $ 20%
6. Italy 2,963.3 2,672.5 6% 11%
7. India 2,352.0 1,775.0 $ 33%
8. Brazil 1,990.0 1,861.3 $ 7%
9. Taiwan 1,800.0 1,623.0 11% 11%
10. Mexico c1,360.9 c1,060.4 $ 28%
11. Russia 1,317.0 1,165.0 13% 13%
12. Turkey 1,285.0 864.9 $ 49%
13. Switzerland 1,240.7 850.5 24% 46%
14. France 1,182.5 850.2 32% 39%
15. Canada c1,143.6 c848.8 $ 35%
16. Austria 632.2 446.3 35% 42%
17. United Kingdom 561.7 422.1 28% 33%
18. Spain 451.5 473.4 -9% -5%
19. Sweden 372.8 259.6 37% 44%
20. Netherlands 328.3 256.9 22% 28%
21. Belgium 301.9 252.9 14% 19%
22. Czech Republic 291.0 130.0 $ 124%
23. Romania u243.0 243.0 0% 0%
24. Argentina 211.5 146.3 $ 45%
25. Australia 167.0 220.9 $ -24%
26. Finland 128.0 108.6 12% 18%
27. Portugal 104.3 115.2 -14% -9%
28. Denmark 43.1 41.1 0% 5%
Apparent Consumption = local Production, less Exports, plus Imports
u = unrevised from previous year but converted at current rates.
c = circa; rough estimate from fragmentary reports.
$ = reported in U.S. dollars.
Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.
Exports
Change
2011 (est.) 2010 (rev.) in local
Country $-Millions $-Millions currency
1. Japan 11,380.6 7,517.2 37%
2. Germany 9,460.2 6,721.0 34%
3. Italy 4,451.9 3,260.5 30%
4. Taiwan 4,000.0 2,960.0 35%
5. Switzerland 2,955.1 2,058.7 22%
6. China, Peoples Rep. 2,380.0 1,850.0 $
7. Korea, Rep. of 2,301.0 1,678.0 $
8. United States 1,874.0 1,559.6 $
9. Spain 918.9 641.2 36%
10. Belgium 870.9 642.3 29%
11. Austria 820.3 743.6 5%
12. United Kingdom 818.5 629.7 25%
13. France 747.1 513.8 38%
14. Netherlands 484.1 401.3 15%
15. Czech Republic 473.0 441.0 7%
16. Turkey 413.0 380.8 8%
17. Canada c266.2 c264.6 $
18. Sweden 179.5 213.2 -20%
19. Finland 139.1 112.6 18%
20. Brazil 107.8 100.4 $
21. Denmark 96.0 91.4 0%
22. Romania u85.2 85.2 $
23. Australia 78.0 87.7 $
24. Russia 64.0 60.0 $
25. Portugal 50.1 43.7 9%
26. Mexico c30.6 c41.4 $
27. India 28.0 22.0 27%
28. Argentina 10.4 11.0 $
Change Exports *
in U.S. as % of
Country dollars 2011 Pdtn
1. Japan 51% 62%
2. Germany 41% 70%
3. Italy 37% 71%
4. Taiwan 35% 80%
5. Switzerland 44% 85%
6. China, Peoples Rep. 29% 9%
7. Korea, Rep. of 37% 41%
8. United States 20% 45%
9. Spain 43% 87%
10. Belgium 36% 232%
11. Austria 10% 82%
12. United Kingdom 30% 124%
13. France 45% 80%
14. Netherlands 21% 121%
15. Czech Republic 7% 106%
16. Turkey 8% 62%
17. Canada 1% 42%
18. Sweden -16% 82%
19. Finland 24% 83%
20. Brazil 7% 12%
21. Denmark 5% 125%
22. Romania 0% 200%
23. Australia -11% 77%
24. Russia 7% 4%
25. Portugal 15% 68%
26. Mexico -26% 25%
27. India 27% 5%
28. Argentina -5% 32%
* = includes re-exported machines
u = unrevised from previous year but converted at current rates.
c = circa; rough estimate from fragmentary reports.
$ = reported in U.S. dollars.
Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.
Imports
Change
2011 (est.) 2010 (rev.) in local
Country $-Millions $-Millions currency
1. China, Peoples Rep. 13,070.0 9,420.0 $
2. United States 4,324.8 2,532.9 $
3. Germany 2,921.5 1,909.7 46%
4. India 1,804.0 1,285.0 40%
5. Korea, Rep. of 1,791.0 1,444.0 $
6. Mexico c1,269.1 c936.3 $
7. Brazil 1,224.4 1,124.3 $
8. Italy 1,182.5 915.1 23%
9. Russia 1,118.0 1,006.0 11%
10. Turkey 1,030.0 690.7 49%
11. France 998.9 701.9 35%
12. Taiwan 800.0 706.0 13%
13. Belgium 797.2 597.3 27%
14. Canada c770.5 c566.5 $
15. Switzerland 733.1 514.0 21%
16. United Kingdom 722.2 544.6 28%
17. Japan 648.0 435.6 35%
18. Austria 450.6 345.9 24%
19. Netherlands 411.8 340.4 15%
20. Sweden 333.9 264.9 20%
21. Czech Republic 318.0 199.0 60%
22. Spain 317.2 277.7 9%
23. Romania u285.7 285.7 $
24. Argentina 189.6 128.3 $
25. Australia 144.0 195.1 $
26. Finland 100.2 86.1 11%
27. Portugal 80.7 92.7 -17%
28. Denmark 62.6 59.6 0%
Change Imports *
in U.S. as % of '11
Country dollars cnsmptn
1. China, Peoples Rep. 39% 34%
2. United States 71% 65%
3. Germany 53% 42%
4. India 40% 77%
5. Korea, Rep. of 24% 35%
6. Mexico 36% 93%
7. Brazil 9% 62%
8. Italy 29% 40%
9. Russia 11% 85%
10. Turkey 49% 80%
11. France 42% 84%
12. Taiwan 13% 44%
13. Belgium 33% 264%
14. Canada 36% 67%
15. Switzerland 43% 59%
16. United Kingdom 33% 129%
17. Japan 49% 9%
18. Austria 30% 71%
19. Netherlands 21% 125%
20. Sweden 26% 90%
21. Czech Republic 60% 109%
22. Spain 14% 70%
23. Romania 0% 118%
24. Argentina 48% 90%
25. Australia -26% 86%
26. Finland 16% 78%
27. Portugal -13% 77%
28. Denmark 5% 145%
* = includes machines imported for re-export
u = unrevised from previous year but converted at current rates.
c = circa; rough estimate from fragmentary reports.
$= reported in U.S. dollars.
Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.
Trade Balance
in Millions of U.S. dollars *
Country 2011
1. Japan 10,732.6
2. Germany 6,538.7
3. Italy 3,269.3
4. Taiwan 3,200.0
5. Switzerland 2,222.0
6. Spain 601.8
7. Korea, Rep. of 510.0
8. Austria 369.6
9. Czech Republic 155.0
10. United Kingdom 96.3
11. Belgium 73.7
12. Netherlands 72.3
13. Finland 39.0
14. Denmark 33.4
15. Portugal -30.6
16. Australia -66.1
17. Sweden -154.4
18. Argentina -179.2
19. Romania (u) -200.5
20. France -251.8
21. Canada -504.4
22. Turkey -617.0
23. Russia -1,054.0
24. Brazil -1,116.6
25. Mexico -1,238.5
26. India -1,776.0
27. United States -2,450.8
28. China, Peoples Rep. -10,690.0
* = Exports Minus Imports
u = unrevised from 2010
Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.
Per-Capita Consumption
2011
Consumption Population Spent
Country $-Millions 000s $/capita
1. Switzerland 1,240.7 7,604 $163.16
2. Korea, Rep. of 5,131.0 48,508 $105.78
3. Germany 6,956.0 82,329 $84.49
4. Taiwan 1,800.0 22,974 $78.35
5. Austria 632.2 8,215 $76.95
6. Japan 7,620.5 127,078 $59.97
7. Italy 2,963.3 58,126 $50.98
8. Sweden 372.8 9,059 $41.16
9. Canada 1,143.6 33,487 $34.15
10. China 38,370.0 1,323,591 $28.99
11. Belgium 301.9 10,414 $28.99
12. Czech Republic 291.0 10,211 $28.50
13. Finland 128.0 5,250 $24.38
14. United States 6,611.9 307,212 $21.52
15. Netherlands 328.3 16,715 $19.64
16. France 1,182.5 64,420 $18.36
17. Turkey 1,285.0 76,805 $16.73
18. Mexico 1,360.9 111,211 $12.24
19. Spain 451.5 40,525 $11.14
20. Romania 243.0 22,215 $10.94
21. Brazil 1,990.0 198,739 $10.01
22. Portugal 104.3 10,707 $9.75
23. Russia 1,317.0 140,041 $9.40
24. United Kingdom 561.7 61,113 $9.19
25. Australia 167.0 21,262 $7.85
26. Denmark 43.1 5,500 $7.84
27. Argentina 211.5 40,913 $5.17
28. India 2,352.0 1,156,897 $2.03
Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.
Five Countries Consume 70% of World Output
China 41%
Germany 8%
U.S. 7%
Japan 8%
Korea 6%
All Other 30%
Source: Gardner Publications, Inc.
Note: Table made from pie chart.
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