The 2006 gay agenda: The White House remains closed to gays. So where can we look for political progress this year?

Midterm elections are a mere 10 months away, and Republicans in Congress--as well as lawmakers in various states--are fighting to keep their seats. Their legislative decisions and the cultural battles they pick throughout 2006 will have an enormous ripple effect on equality. It'll be up to LGBT groups and individuals to make sure their antigay agenda is stopped.

That's why it is especially important to hold politicians' feet to the fire--before and after the elections, says Matt Foreman, executive director of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force. Candidates who accept campaign contributions and votes from LGBT activists must prove that they will support our issues. And instead of always being on the defensive regarding gay issues, we need to go on the offensive, he says, "particularly on nondiscrimination and bullying and harassment in the public schools [because] these two issues poll off the charts."

What issues will antigay politicians try to exploit? In December the Supreme Court was to have heard arguments in Rumsfeld v. FAIR, a crucial case that will decide whether public universities can cite the military's antigay policies as a reason to refuse to allow military recruiters on campuses. A decision is expected in spring at the earliest.

As many as four state supreme courts could rule on marriage equality cases, says Jon Davidson, spokesman for Lambda Legal: "Massachusetts, for example, will decide if out-of-state couples can wed in the Bay State. Relationship protections outside of marriage are also set to come before the gavel."

Davidson was heartened by the success his group saw in state courts during 2005--and not just in reliably blue states. There were victories in Virginia, West Virginia, Washington, and Montana.

Meanwhile, the 11 states that passed constitutional amendments in 2004 defining marriage as a union between one man and one woman will continue to grapple with the legal fallout--for both same-sex and opposite-sex couples. In Ohio, for example, straight male defendants in domestic-violence cases have successfully argued that because they were not married to their victims, the assault cannot be called "domestic violence."

New anti-same-sex-marriage amendment battles are expected in Wisconsin, Arizona (where Republican U.S. senator John McCain has endorsed the tweaking of that state's constitution), Tennessee, Alabama, Illinois, South Carolina, South Dakota, Virginia, Florida, and California.

When it comes to the rights of gay parents, Davidson cites recent rulings in California and Pennsylvania as another reason to be optimistic. Those cases affirmed the rights of a lesbian who helps raise a child but is not the biological parent. Yet he is worried about restrictions on gay foster parents, especially in Arkansas. On New Years Eve 2004, circuit court judge Timothy Fox rejected the state's case that gay men and lesbians were unsuitable foster parents. The state appealed that decision, and the Arkansas appellate court will decide the case in 2006.

Whatever the short-term goals, "we need to be investing in places that will not show an immediate win, and that means investing proactively in key states for the long term," says Foreman.

"That also means, unfortunately, being very selective about how our community's very scarce resources are deployed." Still, he adds, "we have time on our side, and [antigay conservatives] don't because the core of their strength is older people, and the core of our strength is younger people."

Wildman is The Advocate's Washington correspondent.