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Tell us what we want to hear: why we ignore the bears. (Commentary).


ONE of the striking things about the financial press during a bear market is what isn't in it: bona fide [Latin, In good faith.] Honest; genuine; actual; authentic; acting without the intention of defrauding.

A bona fide purchaser is one who purchases property for a valuable consideration that is inducement for entering into a contract and without suspicion of being
 financial celebrities.

A bull market gives rise to lots of big-time bull gurus (Abby Joseph Cohen Abby Joseph Cohen (CFA) (born 1952 in Queens, New York) is an American economist and financial analyst on Wall Street. She is a partner and chief U.S. investment strategist at Goldman Sachs. , Mary Meeker Mary G. Meeker (born September ??, 1959 in rural Portland, Indiana, USA) is an influential[1] Wall Street securities analyst and investment banker primarily associated with dot coms and the 1990s internet bubble. , Henry Blodget Henry Blodget (born 1966) is a former securities analyst who was senior Internet analyst for Merrill Lynch during the dot-com bubble.

Blodget received a Bachelor of Arts degree from Yale University and began his career as a freelance journalist and was a proofreader for
) who then become almost household names History
Formation (1998-2000)
Household Names have been together since 1998, with various members rotating throughout the line-up with singer, Jason Garcia, until it was solidified in the summer of 2000 with bassist/keyboardist, Chris Peters, and drummer, C. J.
. There is no real equivalent to these characters in bear markets.

There are bearish authorities, of course, and they get a bit of attention, but they excite nothing like the passion and interest of the bulls. Just the reverse: they excite skepticism.

Even now, when Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., or simply Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is one of the world's largest global investment banks. Goldman Sachs was founded in 1869, and is headquartered in the Lower Manhattan area of New York City at 85 Broad Street.  Group Inc. predicts to newspaper reporters that the stock market will rise 40 percent in a year, no one writes that she stands to make a lot of money if the market rises. When David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund tells reporters the stock market will fall 40 percent next year, he is invariably in·var·i·a·ble  
adj.
Not changing or subject to change; constant.



in·vari·a·bil
 described as a man who bets money on the market falling.

One obvious reason for this double standard is that the average investor is longing the market. Faith or optimism is built into our financial system. Skepticism or pessimism is systematically discouraged.

The people who are right about the market when stocks are rising receive a lot more uncritical flattery and attention than the people who are right about the market when stocks are falling.

As a result, for anyone who sets out on a career of financial punditry, there is a very clear incentive to become a bull.

Louis Rukeyser, for instance. The host of "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street" has made a fantastically good living for going on 30 years by ridiculing bearishness in all its forms, and celebrating bullishness in most of its forms.

Even in this darkest of stock market moments, Rukeyser has defied public television's attempts to kill him off. As the Dow plunges, he continues to be watched and taken seriously, if not on Wall Street then at least in West Palm Beach.

No doubt Rukeyser would argue that he has been watched because he's been right about long-run trends: the market is higher now than it was 30 years ago. And that is no doubt a part of the secret of his success. The other part is that the television audience is long.

But here is the point: Even with the Dow falling fast, it is impossible to imagine a bearish version of Rukeyser's gaudy worldly success. Just as we grossly exaggerate the importance of people who argue that that the market is going up, even when those people are dimwits, we grossly diminish the importance of those who say the stock market is going down - even when those people are first-rate thinkers.

James Grant, for instance. The editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer is one of the most interesting market analysts alive. Even in a bull market his views are far more stimulating and original than those of most bullish pundits. For going on 15 years he has argued, with wit and clarity, that the U.S. stock market is a house of cards house of cards
n. pl. houses of cards
A flimsy structure, arrangement, or situation that is in danger of collapsing or failing: "The collapse of the rupiah . . .
. If there were any justice in the world, James Grant would be a household name, feted for his prescience pre·science  
n.
Knowledge of actions or events before they occur; foresight.


prescience
Noun

Formal knowledge of events before they happen [Latin praescire to know beforehand]
, offered huge sums for his public speeches, even recognized by New York New York, state, United States
New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of
 taxi drivers.

But because James Grant is instinctively bearish and constitutionally incapable of optimism, he. has only a small cult following.

Why do we have this weirdly corrupting asymmetry in the market for financial opinion? It's hardly the bears' fault. In their gloomy way, they try just as hard as the bulls to attract attention to themselves.

It's no easier to blame the balls. Indeed, in their treatment of the bears the bulls exhibit a certain largeness of spirit about them. (Rukeyser invites Grant onto his TV show, for example.)

The media might take the blame, but the media is usually just frantically trying to give its audience what it wants. They think they want the truth, but the truth about what they want isn't as simple as that. On the one hand they'd like the truth; on the other, they have these stock portfolios. They have, in other words Adv. 1. in other words - otherwise stated; "in other words, we are broke"
put differently
, a conflict of interest.

Michael Lewis, whose books include "Next: The Future Just Happened" and "Liar's Poker," is a columnist for Bloomberg News.
COPYRIGHT 2002 CBJ, L.P.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2002, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Title Annotation:people who forecast rise in stock market receive more financial press
Author:Lewis, Michael
Publication:Los Angeles Business Journal
Article Type:Column
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Nov 4, 2002
Words:717
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