Target: Pakistan.

Target: Pakistan

PESHAWAR, PAKISTAN. On March 16, Abdul Wakil, foreign minister of the Soviets' puppet regime in Kabul, laid down the law to Pakistan's President Zia ul-Haq: If Pakistan refused to sign the current Geneva accords, the Afghan war would spill across the border into Pakistan. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a leader of the Afghan resistance, was unimpressed. He pointed out that, in addition to the cross-border air strikes and shelling that have been directed at Afghan refugee camps since the war began, for the past year Pakistani civilians have been the target of an intensive campaign of terrorist bombings. According to sources in Islamabad, perhaps as many as 650 Pakistanis have been killed in these attacks.

Pakistanis already see the Afghan refugees as visitors who have overstayed their welcome but can't politely be asked to leave, because they happen to be visitors equipped with assault rifles, machine guns, mines, grenades, and surface-to-air missiles, all courtesy of the United States of America. And now Pakistanis see them, too, as the indirect cause of random violent deaths in their land. This does nothing for Afghan popularity--nor (an added bonus for the men in the Kremlin) for American popularity. In addition to our support of the Afghan freedom-fighters, there is the fact that many of the terrorist bombers recruited by the Kabul secret police are out-of-work heroin traders. The reason the heroin traders are out of work is that the Pakistani government, with the support of the United States, has been systematically wiping out poppy fields and destroying heroin factories.

All of this has created some popular uneasiness with President Zia, who has taken a hard-line position in favor of the Afghan mujahedin, and who also, despite many disappointments, remains generally pro-American. And now Zia faces a new political threat from within his own government, in the person of Prime Minister Mohammed Khan Junejo.

A number of signals seem to suggest that Zia may be vulnerable. For example, ever since he came to power, there has been a standing order in the four government-controlled newspapers that his photograph be featured prominently, and that his name appear boldly in lead headlines. Then three months ago the word came down from the government's Department of Information: Henceforth the prime minister's name and photograph shall be given preference. In a recent issue of the Pakistan Times, there is a photograph of the two men meeting King Hussein. The caption reads: "King Hussein of Jordan being received by the Prime Minister, Mr. Mohammed Khan Junejo, on his arrival at Islamabad airport on Tuesday."

Four weeks ago, the editor-in-chief of the Pakistan Times, a close political associate of the president, was abruptly sacked after publishing an article in an Urdu weekly that criticized the prime minister and suggested that Zia take matters into his own hands. An informed Pakistani journalist told me the editor had published the story on Zia's instructions, and the president wasn't strong enough to protect him.

On the other hand, another Pakistani journalist says a fledgling newspaper was recently closed after publishing a story stating that Prime Minister Junejo and the joint chiefs of staff had asked President Zia to resign as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The action taken against the newspaper, and the fact that Zia still holds the post of commander-in-chief, indicate that, for now, he remains in control.

And Pakistan's commitment to the Afghan mujahedin also remains firm. But the energy Moscow is putting into its terrorist bombings suggests that the Kremlin, at least, considers a Pakistani sellout to be a real possibility. As we go to press, indeed, it is being remored that Zia may be preparing to sign some version of the Geneva accords. What precisely this would mean for the Afghans will depend upon the fine print. But in any case, one thing remains clear: while Gorbachev peddles glasnost to the West, he offers the Pakistanis, like the Afghans, only bloodshed and fear.