Tajikistan time to reflect.

It has been just over five years since a peace accord in 1997 put an end to the bloody civil war in Tajikistan and during that time, positive, albeit halting, steps have been taken in the country's transition to civil order and democracy. And the transition remains vulnerable.

While a fifth anniversary of peace is something to cheer, it is also a time to reflect on the terrible price the war exacted and to redouble efforts to establish a firm rule of law and a culture of pluralism. In a visit to Dushanbe on 21 October, Secretary-General Kofi Annan told the 63 members of the new Tajik Parliament that they should continue to work for the establishment of the rule of law. "Popular trust in the judiciary", he said, "and the fairness of the authorities is the best safeguard against extremism and renewed violence." For a society to deal with fundamental questions, such as the rule of law and pluralism, it has to pay heed to the voices of all of its members and engage all of them, including women, in formulating solutions, he stressed.

In an earlier message to the international conference in commemoration of the anniversary, held in Tajikistan in June 2002, Mr. Annan said that the most important factor in ending the conflict had been the political commitment of the parties to stop the devastation and to begin a process of national reconciliation. That commitment was tested through more than three years of complex negotiations, ultimately producing the politically difficult but necessary compromises that made possible the signing of the General Peace Agreement in Moscow on 27 June 1997.

Tajikistan's independence in September 1991 began relatively peacefully but was all too quickly followed by a civil war and armed insurgency. By mid-1993, in a country of less than 6 million, an estimated 50,000 people had been killed, 600,000 displaced internally and an additional 60,000 made refugees in northern Afghanistan. Still more had fled to the neighbouring Central Asian republics and other countries of the former Soviet Union.

The United Nations first active response to the situation in Tajikistan was in the fall of 1992, with the dispatch of a fact-finding mission led by the Secretary-General's envoy Raymond Sommereyns--Director in the Department of Political Affairs. Mr. Sommereyns told the Chronicle that the mission's report had recommended that the Secretary-General continue his goodwill efforts and "be supportive of local and regional efforts". The newly independent States, he said, had been "looking to the United Nations for help", but also hoping for more to come out of the "peace dividend" that was widely expected at the time.

On the basis of the mission's recommendations, a peace-keeping operation--the United Nations Mission of Observers in Tajikistan (UNMOT)--had been set up by the end of the year in Dushanbe. Information from UNMOT led in April 1993 to the appointment of a Special Envoy of the Secretary-General. The efforts of Ambassador Ismat Kittani of Iraq and subsequently of Ambassador Ramiro Piriz-Ballon of Uruguay began to bear fruit, with the first inter-Tajik talks being held in Moscow in April 1994, followed in September by the signing of a temporary ceasefire. Over the next several years, the Special Envoy and later Special Representatives of the Secretary-General continued the work to strengthen the negotiating process and integrate the efforts of other countries and organizations.

The parties themselves, as well as Tajikistan's neighbours and other concerned countries, recognized that the United Nations should be the leading international body facilitating the peace process and coordinating efforts to keep the conflict from spreading. Eight observer countries--Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russian Federation, Thrkmenistan and Uzbekistan--hosted several rounds of talks and provided invaluable assistance to the parties in overcoming their differences. The peace process also led to a "contact group" of guarantor countries and international organizations, including the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE)--now known as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)--and the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC).

For more than a year after the signing of a ceasefire agreement in 1994, there was no serious, sustained fighting between the opposing forces. However, fighting again escalated in the summer of 1995. Strong international efforts led to another ceasefire agreement in late 1996 and the General Peace Agreement in June 1997. In November, the UNMOT mandate was expanded to assist in the implementation of the peace agreement and the monitoring of the election for the lower house of a new two-chamber Parliament. That was held as scheduled in early 2000 without serious incident.

The United Nations, in cooperation with OCSE, had actively participated in preparing for international monitoring of the electoral process. UNMOT successfully completed its mission mandate on 1 5 May 2000. The United Nations Tajikistan Office of Peace-building (UNTOP) took its place.

Reforms are moving forward, and the economy grew by about 10 per cent last year. However, deteriorated infrastructure and social services, and a largely subsistence--and criminalized--economy limit the pace. The economy as a whole remains overly dependent on its two main exports--cotton and aluminium--and earnings are controlled by politically connected elites. The Government has not been able to attract the domestic and foreign investment needed to spur economic growth. Its perceived inability to prevent either Islamic extremists or drug traffickers from transiting prompted Uzbekistan to severely restrict movements across their common border, effectively shutting off much of Tajikistan's international trade and migratory labour. The World Bank estimates that Tajikistan's total external debt is slightly over $1.2 billion, 129 per cent of gross domestic product, mostly to the Russian Federation and Uzbekistan. Debt servicing is expected to require 50 per cent of government revenues in 2002. Two successive yea rs of drought have added to the drag on the country's economic recovery.

Mr. Sommereyns, who returned to Dushanbe to participate in the fifth year anniversary conference, said: "We went through this whole process: shuttle diplomacy; talks; peacekeeping; enlarging the UNMOT mandate; peace-building; and now UNTOP. This may continue for another year or two until the new general elections. Then it will probably be time to say 'enough. They will have to make it on their own'." He feels hopeful, noting that there seemed to be a new respect among the parties--and a will to peace.