TV forecast casts clouds over PC games.

Just as it has done every year since 1987, New York-based communications investor Veronis Suhler Stevenson published what is now its 530-page industry forecast, which makes predictions up until 2009.

According to the report, U.S. broadcast TV networks, which in 2004 generated $17.6 billion, will, by 2009, reach $21.8 billion, with a compound annual growth of 4.4 percent.

Similarly, U.S. broadcast TV stations' revenue will increase from $25.6 billion in 2004, to $31.5 billion in 2009, at an average annual growth of 4.2 percent.

Now for the interesting part: Cable and satellite television subscription fees will grow at an average of 5.9 percent annually, reaching $74.8 billion in 2009 (revenue hit $56.3 billion in 2004). Advertising for cable and satellite will grow at 12 percent, to $33.4 billion, in 2009, thus surpassing the TV networks ad revenues.

As far as entertainment media as a whole goes, growth is predicted at seven percent each year, reaching $124.3 billion by 2009 (it was $88.6 billion in 2004). The greatest increases will come from interactive television and wireless content (28.4 percent annually), which will go from $3.2 billion in 2004 to $11.3 billion in 2009. This sector will see an yearly percentage decrease in revenue when it comes to recorded music (-2.1 percent) and PC games (-10 percent). Interestingly, the company plans to add IPTV services to its forecast in 2006, representing a major shift in the industry.

Year-to-Year Annual
Growth Rates (%)

INDUSTRY SEGMENT          2006         2007

Broadcast TV               7.4          2.1
  TV Networks              7.3          2.0
  TV Stations              7.5          2.2

Cable & Sat TV             7.7          7.2
  Subscription Fees        6.1          5.8
  Advertising             11.9         10.8
  License Fees             8.0          7.2

Ent. Media                 8.3          6.8
Filmed Ent.                9.8          7.5
  Box Office               2.6          3.2
  Home Video              10.3          7.8
  Interac./Wireless       37.0         24.3
  TV Programming           7.3          4.8
Recorded Music            -2.9          0.0
Interactive Ent.           9.9          9.8
  Video Games             11.9         10.6
  PC Games                -10.8        -8.9
  Video Game Adv.         50.0         50.6

Courtesy of Veronis Suhler Stevenson