TV ad sales disappoint as tumult rules democratic field.

An anticipated boost in local advertising in advance of the March 2 primary election has yet to materialize, but media planners and broadcast executives say the political deluge could begin at any time--or not at all.

Whether local television and radio outlets are to realize a bump in first-quarter revenues from political ads depends on how the topsy-turvy contest for the Democratic presidential nomination unfolds over the next two or three weeks.

"It could be a slugfest," said Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum. "But if it's all but decided before California there won't be very much money spent."

Joining the Democratic hopefuls on the March 2 ballot are four state initiatives and the race for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by Democrat Barbara Boxer.

Backers of Propositions 57, providing for a one-time $15 billion economic recovery bond, and 58, calling for a balanced-budget requirement, have vowed to spend between $8 million and $12 million to support the initiatives.

The amount expected to be spent on Propositions 55 and 56--a $12.3 billion school-bond measure and a drive to change the requirement for passage of a state budget from two-thirds to 55 percent of the Legislature--is less clear, though it is expected to be far less than on Propositions 57 and 58.

Even with the Senate contest and state propositions, the volume of activity necessary to drive up the cost of spot advertising on local airwaves--and station profits--is unlikely to be met unless two or three Democratic presidential candidates are required to invest in media campaigns here.

"The big question is the primary," said John Reardon, general manager of KTLA (Channel 5). "We have to see what develops as we move forward, but California could be a big state if it comes down to that."

Slow start

Jean Brooks, executive vice president of Palisades Media Group Inc., which purchases media time for political campaigns, said few campaigns have tipped their hands about spending plans so far.

"It's very last-minute this year. Things seem to be getting off to a slow start," Brooks said.

Managers at several local television and radio stations said last week they had yet to hear from media buyers representing political campaigns for the March 2 primary.

That has caused some concern, because in past elections many organizations have jumped in early to make deals--even if they waited until three or four weeks before the election to start running ads.

"It's been real quiet so far. Usually by this time we have seen more inquiries," said Matt Mallon, general sales manager for ABC Radio's KABC-AM (790) and KDIS-AM (1110). "We're prepared, but so far the phones haven't started ringing. I think that's going to change very soon."

The prospect of political campaigns in the spring and fall that would reduce inventory and push up rates was one explanation for a strong upfront buying season for local radio and television stations this year.

But Debbie Lieberman-Martucci, senior vice president and director of spot broadcast for advertising agency Deutsch Inc., said the crunch that broadcasters hoped for has yet to develop.

"We were expecting it to be tight on the buying side. We were expecting it to be difficult to be on the air," she said. "January and February has been pretty open and March is just starting to tighten up a bit."

In a flat market, political advertising can be a wash, or worse. That's because any extra revenues don't necessarily come directly from the political campaigns themselves, but from the impact the buying has on the rest of the market.

Broadcasters are required to sell time at the lowest competitive rate to political candidates (ballot measures are not subject to the rule), so to get top dollar from other spot buyers and boost profits during campaign season, inventory must be tight.

And there is no guarantee that even if the Democratic race spills over into California that spending will be at high levels.

Veteran Democratic political consultant Darry Sragow of Public Strategies Inc. said the amount would depend on how much the candidates have left in their war chests when they reach California. He predicted the remaining Democratic candidates would spend about a $1 million per week each on advertising in the state, starting a few weeks before the election.

That's not much considering the size of California and the high cost of buying ad time in much of the state.

"It's very expensive to advertise in California. It's not like Iowa or New Hampshire where you can easily blanket the state," said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, a media research firm specializing in politics.

Campaign Media Analysis Group estimates that $1 billion will be spent nationally on political advertising in 2004, up from about $700 million in 2000. Despite the slow start in California, the state could get a big chunk of that spending if the Democratic race stays tight, he said.