TURKEY - Ties With The US - Future Co-operation In War On Terror.

On both sides, i.e. in both Ankara and Washington, there is a realisation that the split over Iraq could mark the beginning of a new era on US-Turkish relations. Speaking on CNN-Turk on May 7, in landmark comments (recorded on May 5 in Washington), US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was very blunt about what Washington thought about Turkey's role during the US-led operation to oust Saddam, and how it expected Ankara to behave in future on matters related to the war against terrorism and Bush's vision for the Middle East.

Wolfowitz said he was particularly disappointed with the Turkish military. He added: ''I think for whatever reason, they did not play the strong leadership role . . . that we would have expected... But if we are going to have a new page, let's have a Turkey that instead ... of saying `Well, we don't care what the Americans' problems are with Iran and Syria, they are our neighbours', let's have a Turkey that steps up and says: `We made a mistake. We should have known how bad things were in Iraq, but we know now. Let's figure out how we can be as helpful as possible to the Americans' ''.

Wolfowitz pointed out: "'I'd like to see a different sort of attitude than I have yet detected. Maybe it's there; I haven't been to Turkey in a while''. He suggested the two countries could rebuild their damaged relations by co-operating in the reconstruction of Iraq, noting: ''We have an opportunity in cooperating on maybe the most important project of this century, which is to build a free, democratic Arab country to the south of your country and frankly, if we can work together to achieve that in Iraq, it will more than repair whatever damage has been done''.

Responding to Wolfowitz, Prime Minister Erdogan said on May 8: "Turkey, from the very beginning, never made any mistakes, and has taken all the necessary steps in all sincerity". But the US has also been concerned by Turkish moves to improve relations with Iran and Syria, both of whom are worried about the Kurdish factor (see below). Wolfowitz comments, in particular the references to Syria and Iran, were seen as being in response to recent diplomatic overtures, including a trip to Syria by Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul and a visit to Turkey by Iran's first vice president, Mohammed Reza Aref.

The US has been showing its displeasure in many ways. Ankara was not invited to a recent international peacekeeping force conference in London and is being shut out of projects for Iraq's reconstruction, according to noted Turkish columnist Sami Kohen in an article on May 7 in Milliyet newspaper. During US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld recent "victory tour" of Middle East countries, he visited the huge Incirlik Airbase near Adana, a symbol of US-Turkish relations, but during his stay there he did not even shake hands with Turkish officials. He flew straight to London after Incirlik, and did not meet any Turkish leaders.

From the Turkish perspective, this tough US attitude signals several things from a strategic perspective. The most important is that they would have to find a way whereby they no longer are over-dependent on one country in strategic matters. This would mean, in practice, that an improvement of relationships with EU states (like France and Germany) and with Russia will become essential in the years ahead. While that, in turn, would mean a dilution to some extent of links to the US, Ankara will at the same time have to ensure that ties with Washington are not damaged to the extent that it becomes hostile. Whether the government of Erdogan can achieve this balance remains to be seen, but the signals so far are not positive. It will depend to a great extent on whether Erdogan can develop a working relationship with the military establishment, and that would mean ideological compromises that may be politically unsustainable for his AKP party.

From the US perspective, observers believe much of the tough posturing on the part of Wolfowitz and others has to do with Washington's future plans in the campaign against terrorism. It is certain that Syria and Iran would become targets of pressure, perhaps sanctions, and - in a worst-case scenario - maybe even a military strike. In such a situation, the US does not want to face any further problems from a Turkey reluctant to get involved. The observers feel that Washington is sending the strongest possible message at present in order to make sure that things are much smoother when the Syria or Iran becomes the target of the anti-terror campaign. To some extent the Syrian and Iranian phases of the campaign have already begun, with Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to Damascus intended to sound out the positions of the Syrian leadership and tough comments by various US officials like Secretary of Defence Rumsfeld against Iran.

The observers assess that relations between the US and Turkey would get back to a stable balance, but ties may never return to how they used to be - simply because there are now crucial points of difference and diverging interest between the regional policies of the two countries. Yet despite the souring of relations between Turkey and the US, there are efforts by both sides to improve the atmosphere. Turkish justice minister, Cemil Cicek, said on May 7 that Ankara's relationship with the Washington ought to be viewed over the last 50 years and not just in relation to one disagreement. He pointed out that "many Turkish citizens died due to the importance we attributed to the relations and to the friendship with the U.S", noting that 400 Turks died in the Korean War while fighting beside the US. Turkish officials have repeatedly pointed out that Ankara eventually did allow the US to use its airspace after the war to oust Saddam began.