TURKEY - The Political Leadership.

The political stability and economic prospects of Turkey have not been as good as they are now for about 22 years. Since it came to power in November 2002, the Islamist Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi - or Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has performed remarkably well on all fronts.

Turkey's economy has expanded rapidly since 2003. The government is promising great economic objectives in the period of its term through to 2007. Already Turkey is the fastest economy in the OECD region.

On May 7, 2004, the AKP government won strong backing in parliament for a package of amendments closely monitored by the EU, which it hopes to join. The measures removed references in the constitution to the death penalty, eased extradition and made the military more accountable for its assets and less influential in education. The package included abolition of the country's controversial system of state security courts, used to try dissidents and those accused of harming the republic. Ankara has pledged further changes to the military-guided constitution.

Vowing that it will remain in power until 2007 or beyond, the AKP on March 28, 2004, won a commanding victory in local elections across the country. It secured more than 43% of the vote, with its closest rival trailing on 13%, as Turks rewarded the ruling party for ushering in the first period of stability Turkey has enjoyed for many years (see Vol. 62, Gas Market Trends No. 19).

Erdogan was so determined to secure overwhelming endorsement for his constitutional amendments in parliament that MPs from AKP were ordered to stay in Ankara until voting ended on May 7. But he is finding it tougher to persuade the Turks, who are enthusiastic about his reforms, that the reward he has promised them - the join the EU before long - will be forthcoming.

According to some commentators, many Turks do not trust the EU to deliver on its side of the bargain. They may believe the reform process - involving significant political, constitutional, legal, social and economic changes - will grind to a halt, and perhaps be reversed, if entry to the EU is denied or delayed further.

When Turkey was denied the status of a formal candidate for EU membership in 1997, the government of the time responded by threatening to break off relations with the EU entirely (see background in Vol. 58, Gas Market Trends No. 23). Erdogan may come under pressure from hardliners in the armed forces, from the political opposition, and among an influential Eurosceptic strand of academic opinion to follow the same line (see background in Vol. 62, Gas Market Trends No. 19).

Visiting Ankara, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on April 25, 2006, assured Turkish leaders that the US would step up efforts to stop the infiltration of Kurdish insurgents from Iraq into Turkey, but she warned the government not to send troops into Iraq to do the job. Erdogan complied, already having encouraged many Turkish and foreign companies based in Turkey to invest in Iraqi Kurdistan (see this week's APS Diplomat - ood5-IraqTurkeyMay15-06).

Addressing what became a new irritant in ties with Turkey, Rice acknowledged that the problem of infiltration by Kurdish rebels into Turkey from Iraqi Kurdistan had been allowed to grow. Turkish Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said there had been a surge in such infiltration in recent weeks. The country's press has been filled with reports of thousands of Turkish troops massing on the border of Iraq, and there has been speculation that Turkey might intervene in Iraq.

Ms Rice, without speaking directly to that threat, sought to discourage the Turks from doing anything on their own. She said: "Of course we want anything that we do to contribute to stability in Iraq, not to threaten that stability or to make a difficult situation worse" - referring to the presence of Turkish troops. She added: "That is why a co-operative approach on this problem - co-operation between Iraqi and Turkey and the coalition forces - is very important".

Gul spoke of the Kurdish rebel situation in blunt terms, saying the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) had turned Iraq into "a training ground" and that "like every country, Turkey will take her own precautions" to deal with the problem. But he said Turkey had "no claim on anybody's soil or any neighbourly country's soil".

Rice spoke during her trip through the region, starting in the morning with meetings in Athens, where a few thousand anti-US protesters thronged the streets downtown. A couple of dozen protesters turned violent, throwing Molotov cocktails and burning storefronts and bus stops. In Greece, Rice sought to win Greek approval of a UN Security Council (UNSC) action increasing pressure on Iran.

Erdogan's government, as well as the military establishment which remain the strongest segment of Turkish society but is closer to the US than the AKP, will do whatever is required for the US to succeed in making sure Iran's nuclear programme is peaceful and remains under IAEA's watch (see ood5-IraqTurkeyMay15-06). Both the AKP and the Turkish military have far more confidence in the US than in Iran's Shi'ite theocracy (see news19-IranWarCapablty-May8-06).

Turkish society is mainly Sunni and Kemalist (secular) and has no confidence in its Shi'ite minorities, which include Alawites as well as Twelver Ja'faris. Erdogan is also counting on American support in his drive for Turkey, a key member of NATO, to join the EU before long. Through US help and NATO connections, Erdogan and his top aides like Gul and Unakitan have gained the friendship of many leaders in the EU. The AKP government is also counting on the support of Turkey's rich and powerful Jewish community and Israel in its lobbying for EU membership.

Oguz Demiralp, a senior Turkish diplomat who heads the General Secretariat for the EU, the body co-ordinating Ankara's membership bid, on April 21 charged that some European states were seeking to impose tougher terms for Turkey in its membership talks, warning that bilateral ties would suffer. He complained that some EU states were trying to attach political conditions to would-be talks on educational issues.

Demiralp told Anatolia news agency: "You don't change the rules of the game once the game has started. Changing the rules depending on how the wind blows in member states is unacceptable and will have a negative impact on the entire process".

Turkey began accession talks with the EU on Oct. 3. But many in Ankara believe some EU states, wary about the admission of a populous and relatively poor Muslim country, are trying to hamper progress in the talks. EU diplomats in Brussels said several member-states, led by France - where public opinion is overwhelmingly hostile to Turkey's bid - want the education chapter to require Ankara to enhance minority rights despite opposition from the European Commission. "As far as we know, they have not yet reached an agreement on this issue", Demiralp said.

Normally, minority rights are taken up during talks on a chapter for fundamental rights. Ankara is uneasy that it may be asked to allow the use of the Kurdish language in schools, a highly sensitive matter for a country where separatist Kurdish fighters have recently stepped up violence.

On another thorny issue, an EU demand for Turkey to open its air and sea ports to Greek Cypriots, Demiralp said Ankara would refuse to comply as long as international restrictions imposed on the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state remain in place. Turkey does not officially recognise the internationally acknowledged Greek Cypriot government of the island, which has been divided along ethnic lines since Turkish troops seized the north in 1974.

For many Turks it is the fulfilment of long-held ambitions to be part of Europe. But the talks, expected to take at least 10 years, will raise some tough issues for both Ankara and Brussels alike.

It is difficult to imagine that less than five years ago Turkey was in the throes of economic meltdown. Today, large shopping malls in Istanbul are filled by global chains. The lobby of the huge mall Akmerkez hums with the sound of busy shoppers. As MEED put it in leading a survey of Turkey published on Sept. 30, 2005: "It is the sound of the country on the up. And while the mood of middle class shoppers in the upmarket malls of Istanbul or Ankara are by no means indicative of the atmosphere in the rest of the country, they do suggest a growing sense that, after years of drifting, Turkey is at last going somewhere. That somewhere is Europe. Or, to be more precise, the EU".

Turkey has always seen itself as a bridge between East and West. But Turks believe the bridge is about to be crossed.

The EU is the number one issue in Turkey. The front pages of the newspapers are filled with stories about Europe. Conversations invariably turn to some aspect of EU membership. MEED on Sept. 30 quoted a diplomat in Istanbul as saying: "You cannot turn on the television without being hit with another debate on Europe".

MEED added: "If knowledge of European issues were a requirement for EU membership, then Turkey would have joined years ago. Despite the hype, though, Turkey's accession to the EU is far from becoming a reality". Although Ankara and Brussels signed an association agreement 40 years ago, it was only in December 2005 that Ankara was invited to enter into discussions about becoming the first Muslim country to join. It will be 10 years at the earliest before final talks can take place.

Opposition to Turkish accession comes from some of the EU's most powerful nations, most notably Germany, France and Austria. As well as fearing a flood of Turkish migrants, the powers are nervous about the impact on the EU budget from the massive aid allocation Turkey would receive. EU bureaucrats are also concerned about the cultural difficulties raised by the EU's most populous state being Islamic. MEED quoted the diplomat as adding: "Prejudice, Cyprus and human rights are all factors that are blocking the way. But it is also a question of economics. If Turkey had per capita income of $15,000 a year, the EU would not be concerned. There is a broad commitment to the EU from Turkish society but we need more concession building in Ankara and Brussels. The challenge for Europe and Ankara is managing public opinion and undoing prejudice".

Yet the prospect of a decade of protracted talks upsets few people in Turkey. Many believe the country will benefit almost as much from the process of working towards EU accession as it will from actual membership. For them the process of delivering the political and economic reforms demanded is the crucial point.

MEED on Sept. 30 said popular support for EU accession in Turkey then stood at about 70-75%, adding: "Many believe this will fall sharply once negotiations begin on some of the most sensitive issues, such as the status of northern Cyprus and the treatment of Turkey's estimated 12 million Kurds. Cyprus remains the biggest stumbling block and it is an issue on which few can envisage a solution. As recently as July, with talks just weeks away, Ankara announced that its extension of a customs union with the EU to all new member states did not imply recognition of the Greek Cypriot government, which is an EU member".

In late September, Brussels responded sharply reiterating its position that Turkey would not be able to join unless it recognised Cyprus. The spat threatened to derail the negotiations before they start.

Although a number of political reforms demanded by Brussels remain unfulfilled, such as guaranteeing freedom of expression, PM Erdogan has succeeded where others in the past have failed, including lifting long-standing taboos such as restrictions on Kurdish cultural identity, and discussion on the role of the military.

The Nov. 2, 2002, general elections saw Turks dump Turkey's mainstream parties and elect the untried AKP, which was formed only a year earlier and which has its roots in a banned Islamist movement, as the country's first single-party government in 15 years. Only one other party, the left leaning Republican People's Party (CHP), crossed the 10% threshold required to enter parliament.

MEED quoted an Istanbul-based analyst as saying: "The important point in the country today is that we have a single-party government. All through the 1990s it was a coalition government, which spent more time fighting itself than working out the country's problems". But even though Erdogan's victory came on the back of a promise to boost Turkey's flagging EU bid, many in Turkey and Europe remain suspicious of his true intentions, some believing that he remains an Islamist disguised in Western clothing.

Erdogan had previously been barred from standing in elections because of a criminal conviction for reading an Islamist poem at a political rally, an act deemed to amount to Islamist sedition. Analysts point to the government's attempts in 2004 to lift a ban on headscarves in state offices and schools, and to lift the curbs on the teaching of the Qur'an. This has led to confrontations with the country's Kemalist secular establishment, led by President Sezer and supported by the military, which sees itself as the guardian of Turkey's Kemalism, and which blocked attempts to lift the headscarf ban. Plans in late 2004 to criminalise adultery almost derailed EU accession talks.

Turkey has a long history of tensions between Islamist politicians and the Kemalist establishment - created in the 1920s by Mustafa Kemal (Atatuk, meaning the father of the Turks - including the military. The army has staged three coups since 1960 and forced Turkey's first Islamist government to step down in 1997.

While AKP remains the best supported party in Turkey, Erdogan's popularity which stems from his image as a man of the people, has been tarnished by a tough austerity programme being implemented by the government as part of the IMF economic stabilisation programme put together after the 2000/01 crash. But this has begun to yield good longer-term stabilisers: The biggest winners from structural reforms have been the middle classes: those with savings because asset prices have soared; those who had foreign currency before the crash; those who have invested in the Turkish boom; and importers who have gained from the improved exchange rate, as have the country's bankers.

By contrast, the people with the least have been hit hardest. The rural population has suffered from subsidy cuts, while the urban working classes have had to accept wage capping since 2003. And although it is falling, unemployment is still high at about 11%. Many fear there could be a political cost for the government.

MEED quoted Ahmet Akarli, chief economist at HSBC Turkey, as saying: "There is a risk of reform fatigue. The biggest losers are all in the base that voted for the government. This is a constraint of the stabilisation programme and there could be a political cost. Many of these voters are turning...[to Kemalism]". Many believe Kemalist parties will gain from the fall in support for AKP. This will make issues such as Cyprus more difficult. But the key issue for most Turks is stability. As long as Erdogan is able to sustain the impression he is making progress, in terms of GDP growth or towards EU accession, he will retain his popularity.