TURKEY - The Middle East Non-OPEC Decision Makers - Part 5.

Unlike the vast majority of countries in the Middle East, Turkish decision-making on energy is in the hands of politicians who belong to well-established political parties. The objective of the parties and their leaders are to further their own political prospects and enhance the wealth and power of their members. As a result, the general public looks upon the politicians with suspicion. Private businesses, in the meantime, are becoming increasingly powerful and influential. This has been the case for much of the past two decades since the military handed over visible power to a civilian leadership.

The bureaucracy in the energy sector, which provides the technocrats who help the politicians, function merely as advisors and administrators. But they have the power to decide the way decisions are to be executed. When the top political decision makers are in conflict, civil servants become reluctant to take any initiative, fearing that an incoming government or minister will sack them or transfer them to less favourable positions for having served the purpose of the previous one.

In Turkey every new prime minister changes those technocrats who do not serve his or her purpose. As a result, boards of directors of state-controlled institutions in the energy sector keep changing. The list of changes since the military coup of 1980 is endless. The key to Turkey's market for oilmen, contractors or traders is personal contact. Individuals in charge are more important than the system. Kemalism is more of an ideology (even a religion to some) than a system. The military establishment, by far the most powerful segment of Turkish society, is the self-professed guardian of Kemalism.

There is "a deepening valley" between Ankara, capital of the politicians, and Istanbul, which is the capital of the business community. The business community is becoming more powerful and are more able to influence the political establishment as the state companies get privatised. Thus the country's business groups too have a key role in the background of decision makers.

Turkish decision making for the energy sector is also affected by strategic considerations. Ankara has been promoting a commercial aspect of pan-Turkism along the Silk Road, with oil and gas pipelines to pass through Turkey from Central Asia to Europe. This has been a geo-political motivation for every Turkish leader since the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991.

Five issues influence Ankara's strategic orientation: (1) strong energy demand, with Turkey being Europe's fastest growing market for oil and gas; (2) its need, with US support, to control politics in Central Asia and the Caucasus where Turkic ethnicity is dominant; (3) navigation along the Turkish straits, with the Bosphorus now dangerously congested; (4) oil and gas pipelines proposed to bypass the Black Sea; and (5) geo-strategic rivalries with Greece, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Serbia, Syria and other non-Turkic states.