TURKEY - Part 3 - Oil Imports Keep Rising Despite Price Deregulation.

Turkish imports of crude oil and petroleum products during the first four months of 2000 averaged about 700,000 b/d, a new peak in the country's history, according to a highly placed APS source in Ankara. To compare, imports of crude oil and products during the same periods in 1999 and 1998 amounted to about 670,000 b/d and 562,000 b/d, respectively. The source expects imports during the rest of 2000 to be as high.

The rise in imports was despite the oil price deregulation measures which the three-party government of Bulent Ecevit applied after it came to power in June 1999 as part of its IMF-backed economic reforms. But imports fell sharply after the killer earthquake, which hit Turkey in August, led to a brief recession. The economy began to recover in mid-October (see domestic energy developments in DT Nos. 16 & 17).

Exports during the first four months of 2000 averaged about 25,000 b/d, the source says. They involved low quality gasoil, mostly smuggled from Iraq, naphtha and fuel oil. Exports in the whole of 1999 averaged about 32,000 b/d with the volume until the August earthquake having exceeded 45,000 b/d.

Imports in the first four months of 2000 consisted of about 500,000 b/d of crude oil and 200,000 b/d of petroleum products, including more than 82,000 b/d of LPG. Total oil imports during the whole of 1999 amounted to 685,000 b/d, including about 50,000 b/d of gasoils smuggled into Turkey from Iraq, Iran and Syria, with oil consumption having averaged nearly 653,000 b/d and products exports were about 32,000 b/d.

Imports in 1999 consisted of 490,000 b/d of crudes and 195,000 b/d of products including smuggled fuels. Had it not been for the earthquake of August and the subsequent tremors, imports in 1999 would have been larger despite the fact that world oil prices were much higher than in 1998. Imports in 1998 averaged 478,470 b/d of crude oils and 129,160 b/d of petroleum products, and products exports amounted to about 42,160 b/d.

Turkey remains the fastest growing market for energy in Europe, importing more than $5 bn worth of oil and gas per annum. It has shifted to natural gas but in the past six years it was the fastest growing market for oil. Oil imports averaged 325,000 b/d in 1986.

The expansion of Turkey's energy market has seen big jumps during the past 15 years. It leaped from 28.6m tons of oil equivalent in 1985 to 39.3m toe in 1986. In 1996 it reached 60.1m toe. In 1998 it jumped to 62.8m toe. In 1999 it rose to 65.3m toe, despite the earthquakes and their negative implications for the Turkish economy. In 2000 it is expected to reach 68.5m toe (see energy table in DT No. 16).