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TURKEY - May 6 - Turkey's Gul Withdraws Candidacy.


Turkey's FM Abdullah Gul, withdraws his nomination for the post of President after failing to win parliamentary backing. The withdrawal came as centrist political parties began regrouping in a bid to present a united front against the Islamist-rooted government in forthcoming elections that are widely seen as the best way to resolve deep divisions between the administration and the secular opposition. Gul, whose nomination initiated Turkey's worst political crisis in a decade, said there was no prospect of his being confirmed as President by the bitterly divided parliament. The move is unlikely to bring an immediate end to the crisis. But it could bring forward the general election, which is due to be held by July 22. Gul's past involvement in Islamist politics prompted a threat on April 27 from the military to intervene to derail his Presial hopes. The military sees itself as the guardian of secular constitution and has ousted four elected governments in the past 50 years. Analysts said the next President would either be appointed by the new parliament or be elected by a popular vote. The government has begun the process of trying to change the constitution to secure a directly elected President, though such a move faces constitutional and political hurdles. Gul told the FT on May 4 that he intended to be the candidate of the Justice and Development party (AKP) if the post were to be filled through a popular vote. But with the general election looming and a realignment of political parties under way, the electoral outcome looks uncertain. Two of Turkey's once-dominant but now shrunken centrist conservative parties - Motherland and True Path - announced at the weekend that they would merge under the banner of the Democrat party. The merger would offer them a better chance of achieving the 10% share of the vote needed to win representation in parliament. Turkey's political left, dominated by the main opposition Republican People's party, may also realign, although a majority of Turkish voters tend to opt for rightwing parties. The aim of the realignment is to dilute the parliamentary majority of the AKP, which has its roots in political Islam. The party, which was formed in 2001 as an ostensibly moderate successor to more radical Islamist movements, won a third of the vote in 2002 but got two thirds of parliament's 550 seats because of the distortions caused by the 10% threshold. It still attracts a third of voters, according to opinion polls. Gul's Presidential hopes foundered because an opposition boycott meant fewer than 367 MPs were present. The constitutional court ruled last week that a two-thirds quorum was required, virtually guaranteeing that his nomination would fail.

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Publication:APS Diplomat Recorder
Date:May 12, 2007
Words:443
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