TURKEY - Internal Rifts Reflect External Complexities.

The geo-political situation facing the country has sharpened the rifts inside Turkey. The US war to oust Saddam Hussein's regime, the Kemalist establishment's desire to make Turkey a member of the EU and the Islamists' goal of improving relations with neighbouring Muslim countries have all contributed to the divisions.

Washington continues to be upset by the way in which the government backed out of allowing the US to open a land front into northern Iraq. While the US had expected a hostile or ambivalent attitude from the AKP towards its proposals to use Turkish territory for war against Iraq, it was shocked by the military establishment's reaction. As Deputy Defence Secretary Wolfowitz said in his May 7 interview, the military "for whatever reason, they did not play the strong leadership role that we would have expected".

Now Washington is openly demanding that Turkey toe the American line against Syria and Iran. The military, which does not want to allow relations with the US to deteriorate any further, is likely to fall in line, but it remains to be seen whether the AKP will see things in the same way. Turkish has moved in recent months to improve relations with Iran and Syria, both of which - like Turkey - are worried about the Kurdish factor in northern Iraq. Recent diplomatic overtures have included a trip to Syria by Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul and a visit to Turkey by Iran's first vice president, Mohammed Reza Aref. In its electoral rhetoric, the AKP was lukewarm towards the prospect of joining the EU, something which has been of great importance to the secular elite for decades. But after it came to power, the AKP has been an enthusiastic supporter of efforts to join the EU. Now the party is at a crucial juncture on this issue. By December 2004, Ankara believes that the EU must give them a firm date for start of accession talks.

In the meantime, the AKP has a number of sensitive legislative changes to push through for Turkey to become fully eligible for EU membership. These will include: scrapping Article 8 of the Anti-Terrorism Law, rescinding the power of the National Security Council to nominate and appoint members to the Supreme Radio-TV Board (RTUK), lifting the ban on giving children names in languages other than Turkish, lifting the ban on private TV broadcasts in languages other than Turkish, and opening churches wherever these are needed. The AKP will not be able to push these through without full co-operation from the Kemalist establishment.