TUNISIA - Opposition To Middle East Peace Ending - Part 23.

Among the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, Tunisia was one of the few that had entered into an official relationship with Israel after the Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Jordanian agreements of 1993 and 1994. Led by secular-minded President Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali, Tunis had no difficulty in following the path set by Egypt and Jordan, beginning with an interest office in Tel Aviv and a reciprocal one in Tunis. Had the Arab-Israeli peace process not been hijacked by the hardliners on both sides, most observers agree that Israeli-Tunisian relations would have been on a positive footing at present.

However, things have worked out in a way that few had expected. The peace process has in effect collapsed, with the situation on the ground having reverted to a cycle of violence between the Israelis and the Palestinians. There are no immediate prospects for a meaningful resumption of negotiations. Relations between Israel and with the wider Arab World have deteriorated to a level that is comparable to the early days original intifada, which began in the late 1980s.

Countries which had moved closer to Israel between 1994 and 1999, Morocco and Tunisia for example, have faced strong pressure from other Arab states to downgrade their relations. Considering the situation in the Palestinian-controlled territories, especially since the upsurge of violence in September 2000, Tunis and Rabat have had no choice but to oblige. In effect, Tunis had to choose between Israel on the one hand and being ostracised by the rest of the Arab World on the other.

Thus on Oct. 22, 2000, the Tunisian government announced that it was breaking all official contact with Israel. The Tunisian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement: "Further contact with Israel will depend on the progress in the regional peace process". Since then, Tunisia has been critical of Israel even criticising its policies during contacts with the US (see following pages). It is important to note that Tunisia was a haven for the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) during the 1980s, with its leadership based there after having been driven out of Lebanon by Israel. In a sense, Tunisian diplomacy on the peace process has reflected its special perspective on the Palestinians.

Tunisia has not let the situation on the Arab-Israeli front to derail its own domestic agenda, however. The days when local interests could be sacrificed at the altar of the Palestinian or pan-Arab cause are gone. Today's Tunisia has a forward-looking agenda of its own, with a clear emphasis on economic liberalisation and maximum integration into the European Union (EU) framework through the various Euro-Mediterranean and bilateral mechanisms.

With President Ben Ali having pursued this vision through the 1990s, Tunisia at present is a different country than it was in November 1987, when former ruler Habib Bourguiba was removed from office in a bloodless coup. Although over 30% of the population is less than 16 years of age, the per capita income, at $2,224 - with a purchasing power parity of nearly $5,100 - is one of the highest in Africa. Some 80% of households own their own homes and the middle class forms 60% of the population. All this has been made possible by a steady economic growth of around 5.7% since 1987, peaking at 8.6% in 1992.

By the year 2008, according to the government, Tunisia will have moved up its weight class from 'emerging economy' status to 'developed nation' status, in time for complete economic integration with the EU. The effort to achieve these objectives is being promoted by the regime under the catchphrase "mise a niveau" - which roughly translates as "upgrading". It stands for the all-round improvements necessary if Tunisia's economic performance is to come to par with that of Europe by 2008.

In general, the term "mise a niveau" has entered the popular culture and represents the great leap forward which is expected to propel the country onto a much higher level of living. The attitude of "mise a niveau" has caught on and can be detected in taxi-drivers, traders, students, officials and all kinds of workers. The objective of the government is to stabilise at a growth rate of around 6% per annum between 2000 and 2010.

The leadership is not likely to allow anything to upset this objective, be that instability in the area surrounding Israel or across the wider Middle East. In the worst-case scenario of an "open war" between the Israelis and the Palestinians, with some Arab countries involved, Tunisia is more likely to be an observer than a participant.

With the peace process being as it is, the main concern of the government would be about the possible spillover effects - mainly in terms of Islamic militancy. The main group on the Arab side to benefit from the escalation between the Israelis and Palestinians since September 2000 are the Islamists. Tunisia had faced problems from militancy in the 1990s, at a time when radicals had launched a violent campaign in Algeria and Egypt. But it brought the problem under control through a combination of very tough crackdowns and economic reforms. Tunis will be keeping a close eye to ensure that there is no resurgence of this problem.