TROUBLE LOOMING AHEAD SUPERMARKET CHAINS' WORKERS MAY GO OUT ON STRIKE.

Byline: Brent Hopkins Staff Writer

Consumers will be the big losers if contract talks break down between Southern California's three leading supermarkets and its workers, with customers facing fewer selections and possibly closed stores, experts warned Wednesday.

``Would you see store conditions deteriorate? Yes,'' said Jon Seltzer, a consultant with the Food Industry Center at the University of Minnesota, St. Paul.

``Would you be out of highly perishable items? Yes,'' he said. ``Some of the deli offerings and specialty meats that need better skills will likely not be sold.''

Members of the United Food and Commercial Workers continue bargaining with Albertson's, Ralphs and Vons on pay and retirement and health benefits. If the two sides cannot reach an agreement before the current contract expires at midnight Sunday, workers could walk out as early as Oct. 10.

Supermarket chains have begun hiring replacement workers, preparing to transfer employees from other regions and training managers to pick up the slack that 70,000 striking workers would leave. It would be the first strike by supermarket employees since a five-day walkout in 1978.

Bob Daniels, shopping Wednesday at a Vons in Woodland Hills, said he sees both sides.

``I understand the union's side because they're cutting all the perks they have.'' he said. ``But I know management has to compete'' with other chains and with planned Wal-Mart Supercenters, which feature groceries in addition to the clothes, tires and other merchandise typical in Wal-Mart stores.

Spokesman for both Albertson's and Vons said their online delivery operations likely will not be affected, but they declined to reveal how these would be handled in the event of a strike.

Albertson's also will keep its pharmacies running with the use of nonunion workers, while Vons will fill prescriptions from remote centers and send them through overnight mail to consumers' homes. Ralphs would not reveal its contingency plans.

``We have plans in place,'' said Terry O'Neil of Ralphs. ``Our customers will find everything on the shelves they normally do. ... We have to be prepared (in) the event that the union decides there will be a work stoppage.

``We have to protect our business,'' he said, ``both for the company's future and the employees' future.''

Analysts expect that if a strike occurs, UFCW will pick one company to strike against, then the remaining two will lock out workers in solidarity.

Workers at Ralphs' subsidiary, Food 4 Less, operate under a separate contract and will not be affected by any work stoppage, but Vons' upscale Pavilions division would be.

Southern California's other major unionized chains, Stater Bros. and Gelson's, will abide by a new contract's provisions but would not face strikes.

Ellen Anreder, a spokeswoman for the seven UFCW locals involved in bargaining, said no decision had been made whether to strike or which company would be targeted if workers approve a walkout.

None of the grocers would say how many replacement workers have taken advantage of the proffered wages, up to $19.18 an hour. All expressed confidence in their ability to keep the more-than-800 affected stores open, but analysts expressed doubts.

``When you're short-staffed, it's much more difficult to keep quality where it needs to be,'' said Mark Husson, who follows the stock for Merrill Lynch. ``But you ought to be able to rely on a basic standard of safety.''

``The produce presentation won't be as glamorous, or the stock doesn't get rotated as quickly,'' he said. ``If they can't maintain a standard of safety, they'll close the stores and transfer the workers to other stores to at least keep some in the area open.''

Retail analyst Andrew Wolf of BB&T Capital Markets, a Richmond, Va.-based brokerage, downplayed any safety concerns. He said that with a short work stoppage, however, shoppers may not be willing to cross the line, thus giving the union a short burst of leverage that will wane quickly.

``Generally, what happens is with consumers earlier on, they're much more likely to honor the picket line,'' Wolf said. ``The replacement workers, especially in the more skilled areas, don't know what they're doing, so it fits.''

``But in time, people get tired of going to the green grocer, or to Costco three times a week,'' he said. ``They get tired of not having the convenience of the supermarket, so over time, people are more likely to cross.''

``It's going to be difficult,'' said Jean Green, a Woodland Hills retiree shopping Wednesday at a Ralphs. While sympathetic to the workers, Green said ``You do still need food. It's a tough situation - no one wins.''

Brent Hopkins, [phone]

brent.hopkins(at)dailynews.com

CAPTION(S):

2 photos

Photo:

(1 -- color) Customers will be inconvenienced if union workers at three major supermarket chains - Albertson's, Ralphs and Vons - go on strike for increased pay and retirement and health benefits. Ralphs has posted signs for replacement workers.

(2) Signs such as this one at a Ralphs in Tarzana call for temporary workers to replace supermarket union members who may walk out as early as Oct. 10.

John McCoy/Staff Photographer