TRAVELERS TO WAIT LONGER, PAY MORE.

Byline: Steve Carney Staff Writer

Travelers this holiday season will face more-crowded flights, longer delays and higher fares than last year, according to a new study on airline performance.

Making matters worse, Los Angeles International Airport ranks in the bottom third of the nation's 30 largest airports for on-time arrivals and departures, according to the Airline Quality Rating study of airline performance from October to December 1998.

Key to the problem is that the number of passengers is increasing 5 percent every year, jamming airlines and overtaxing airports, the study's authors said.

``December is never a good month to travel anyhow,'' said Dean Headley, co-author of the study and associate professor of marketing at the W. Frank Barton School of Business at Wichita State University.

``The airlines generally do a good job,'' he said, ``but when you add high volumes and bad weather, it's just a really bad mix. And you throw in some of the anxieties about Y2K. . . .''

He said passengers worried about possible computer problems when the calendar flips from '99 to '00 may end their trips in December, when in previous years they would have stayed until after the New Year. That late-December crush could further overburden already stressed air carriers.

Thousands of those people will flock through LAX, which ranked as third-busiest airport in the world, behind Chicago's O'Hare and Atlanta's Hartsfield.

LAX ranked 25th in on-time arrivals and 24th in departures for November 1998, and 23rd and 21st in those categories for December. Christmastime travelers had only a 68 percent chance of getting to Los Angeles on time and a 75 percent chance of leaving as scheduled.

According to an LAX spokesman, the airport cannot be held responsible for departure and arrival times.

``We don't fly the planes or manage the planes as far as air traffic control goes,'' said Tom Winfrey, spokesman for Los Angeles World Airports.

The airlines make their own schedules, and the Federal Aviation Administration oversees the air traffic controllers, he noted.

But Winfrey conceded that with an average of 2,300 flights a day moving through LAX, sometimes ground traffic can be delayed.

``If one plane departs late, and you've landed and are waiting to get to that gate, your passengers are late arriving,'' he said. ``And if there's bad weather other places, the planes cannot get to L.A. There are a lot of variables.''

Altogether, airline delays keep an average of 100,000 people waiting each day, and cost airlines and fliers $4.5 billion last year, according to the Air Transport Association, a trade group that represents 14 airlines.

The FAA, air traffic controllers and the airlines have continually blamed each other for the problem.

Seattle has the dubious honor of having the worst airport for delays, according to the the AQR. There, December travelers had only a 53 percent chance of arriving on time. And only 64 percent of departures were on time last December, according to the AQR report.

Researchers expect this year will be the same, if not worse - especially fares.

``Flights are very crowded, and airlines are being very savvy about raising rates,'' said Steve Rockow, owner of Airtours Cruise & Travel Service in Encino.

``They're trying to get as much as they can. It's constantly a source of amazement how much people will pay to travel,'' said Rockow, who has been in the business 30 years.

US Airways had the best overall rating for the fourth quarter of 1998, as well as the full year, based on fewest late arrivals, lost bags, customer complaints and overbooked flights.

Southwest Airlines had the fewest customer complaints for the fourth quarter, and for all of 1998, according to the study by researchers at Wichita State University and the University of Nebraska at Omaha Aviation Institute.

America West ranked last for the quarter, while Northwest was worst for the full year.

Alaska Airlines ranked last for the quarter and full year, though performance for all airlines took a nose dive in December.

The worst offender for bumping passengers involuntarily was Delta Air Lines, with Alaska, America West, TWA and Southwest also performing below the industry average for the fourth quarter of 1998. US Airways performed best, followed by Continental, Northwest, United and American, according to the AQR.

Preparing for the worst

Holiday travelers should bring food and water to the airport with them, in case they get stranded for hours or even overnight, Headley said. If they're flexible, they might even be able to profit from delays and overcrowding by snagging a ticket voucher after agreeing to be bumped from a full flight.

``I'd rather be prepared for the worst and be pleasantly surprised,'' Headley said. ``Be ready for a two- or three-hour delay, and don't take the last flight of the day. Before noon, flights usually run pretty much on time.''

Weather is the wild card.

A raging thunderstorm over Kansas can cascade and disrupt flights throughout the country, he said.

Delays reached a harrowing extreme on Jan. 2 and 3, when a Midwest blizzard stranded up to 75 planes on the ground at Detroit Metropolitan Airport. Passengers on several Northwest Airlines jets remained essentially captive for up to 11 hours without food, water or working restrooms.

The uproar over that debacle helped launch a passengers' rights movement, and persuaded airlines to draft guidelines for customer treatment - before Congress imposed such rules on them.

In September, the airlines promised to give travelers more information about delays, low fares, cancellation policies and frequent-flier programs, and be more responsive to customer complaints.

The only way to fly

All the airlines' promises aside, Headley said they'll have to prove that their customers' desires are more important than the bottom line.

``They've been fairly smug about this,'' he said. ``They have something you want and need. The airlines are banking on a lack of substitute for what they're offering.''

Rockow said most of his customers have little choice, as they're making their requisite holiday trips to see relatives.

``If they visit family, it's a very powerful incentive,'' he said. ``As far as vacations are concerned, I think people were scared away by the price madness.''

But Headley said fed-up passengers may choose to spend a few more hours and drive where they're going, or take a train. And for many business travelers - the airlines' cash cows - the travel substitute may already be here, in the form of video conferencing or other computer linkages.

``The airlines have to understand there are things coming down the pike that will replace face-to-face meetings made possible by air travel,'' Headley said.

``On the whole, the consumers in the long run can win the battle,'' he said. ``People are saying it's just not right. They're tired of feeling violated.''

ON-TIME

LAX ranked among the worst in the nation in airline delays of departures and arrivals

Percentage of on-time arrivals, 30 largest U.S. airports

1. Memphis - 90.6

2. Pittsburgh - 88.9

3. New York JFK - 88.8

4. Minneapolis-St. Paul - 88.7

5. (tie) Baltimore, Orlando - 88.6

25. Los Angeles - 79.5

30. San Francisco - 66.0

Percentage of on-time departures, 30 largest U.S. airports

1. Orlando - 92.4

2. Cincinnati - 91.9

3. Washington D.C. - 91.2

4. New York JFK - 90.3

5. Baltimore - 90.2

24. Los Angeles - 83.4

30. San Francisco - 73.8

SOURCE: Airline Quality Rating

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