TOP PAC-10 RACE MIGHT BE FOR 3RD.

Byline: BILLY WITZ

The Pacific-10 Conference was so tight last season that entering the final weekend, six teams still had a shot at winning a share of the title.

The race should be just as tight this season - the race for third place, that is.

Arizona, the preseason pick to win the national championship, returns everybody, and defending champion Oregon, which whacked the Wildcats twice last season, returns the league's two best players in Luke Jackson and Luke Ridnour.

It won't take long to determine a front-runner. That will happen tonight after the teams play in Eugene, Ore.

As for everyone else, well, flipping a basketball up and letting them play seems the best way to settle it.

UCLA, for all its horrible losses, is capable of finishing third or seventh. And for that matter, so is Stanford, Arizona State and California.

Washington and Oregon State are looking to make good first impressions under new coaches, Lorenzo Romar and Jay John, respectively. Other than Washington State finishing last or Arizona and Oregon finishing at the top, there seems to be no sure thing.

Here's what to expect, we think, in order of predicted finish:

ARIZONA

--Player to watch: Forward Luke Walton. He's tough, savvy, can score, pass, rebound and gets everyone involved. If Walton, who has been bothered by a sprained ankle, is out, Arizona is a very good team. With him, the Wildcats are the best.

--Key stat: With Walton in the lineup, the Wildcats have averaged 20 assists a game. In the two games without him, including their lone loss (to Louisiana State), they averaged 10.

--Why they'll win: Lute Olson has put his team together like an NBA general manager: bring in as much talent as you can and let the players settle who's best.

--Why they won't: Walton's injury lingers and Olson doesn't settle on a rotation.

--Outlook: After tonight's game at Oregon, the toughest test the Wildcats face will be a nonconference game Jan. 25 at Kansas. The rest will be fine-tuning for a run at the Final Four.

OREGON

--Player to watch: Forward Robert Johnson. The Lukes - Jackson and Ridnour - are the headliners, but Johnson is a better barometer of the Ducks' fortunes. When he's scoring easy baskets and doing the dirty work, they're tough to beat. In the victory over Kansas, he outscored and outrebounded Nick Collison, and in the blowout loss to Cincinnati, he failed to grab a rebound.

--Key stat: Oregon has won 23 consecutive games at MacArthur Court.

--Why they'll win: Nobody has an answer for Ridnour and Jackson and the rest of the Ducks' run-and-gun bombers.

--Why they won't: When there's no D in Duck, it's Uck as it was to Kansas in the Midwest Regional final last year and the 25-point loss to Cincinnati this year.

--Outlook: Few teams can score with Oregon, which leads the Pac-10 in scoring, field-goal percentage and free-throw percentage. The Ducks suffer when someone throws hard-nosed man defense at them, and it's a big reason they often struggle with Arizona State.

STANFORD

--Player to watch: Forward Justin Davis. The former McDonald's All-American is blossoming in his fourth year. He's the Pac-10's leading rebounder at 9.8 a game, and in back-to-back victories over Nevada Las Vegas and Gonzaga, he had career highs of 21 and 24 points, respectively.

--Key stat: Despite losing Curtis Borchardt, the Pac-10's leading rebounder last year, Stanford is a Pac-10-best plus-11 in rebounding margin.

--Why they'll win: Most teams can't match the athleticism of Justin Davis, Julius Barnes and Josh Childress, or the coaching of Mike Montgomery.

--Why they won't: The twice-broken foot that has sidelined point guard Chris Hernandez for the season.

--Outlook: The Cardinal had a hiccup, losing back-to-back home games to Montana and Richmond when they lost Hernandez. But nobody in the Pac-10 has more quality victories - over Xavier, Florida, Gonzaga and UNLV - only one of which was at home.

ARIZONA STATE

--Player to watch: Forward Ike Diogu. No freshman has had a bigger impact than Diogu, who leads the Sun Devils in scoring (18.2 points) and rebounding (6.6).

--Key stat: ASU is a Pac-10-worst 29.3 percent on 3-pointers.

--Why they'll win: Having the next-best depth to Arizona, the Sun Devils will wear down teams with their defense and NBA-like athletes Tommy Smith and Donnell Knight.

--Why they won't: Opponents will pack in their defenses and force the Sun Devils to beat them from beyond the 3-point line.

--Outlook: If coach Rob Evans, who has had one winning season in four years, can't get this group into the NCAA Tournament, he might not get another chance.

CALIFORNIA

--Player to watch: Center Amit Tamir. With the loss of Jamal Sampson and Solomon Hughes, the 6-foot-11 Israeli has moved inside from the perimeter. He's averaging 15.6 points and 8.3 rebounds.

--Key stat: Cal, which was last in the Pac-10 in 3-point shooting last season, leads the conference at 40.4 percent.

--Why they'll win: Because freshman guard Richard Midgley has stepped in for Shantay Legans and played beyond his years.

--Why they won't: A.J. Diggs is the best on-the-ball defender in the Pac-10 but an offensive liability.

--Outlook: If Jamal Sampson hadn't left for the NBA and Legans hadn't left for Fresno State, the Bears would be thinking about winning the Pac-10 instead of getting back to the NCAA Tournament.

WASHINGTON

--Player to watch: Sophomore guard Will Conroy. The former walk-on was a bit player last year, averaging 12.5 minutes a game. Now he's one of the Pac-10's biggest surprises, leading the Huskies with 15 points and 4.3 assists a game.

--Key stat: The scoring average of Doug Wrenn, which has fallen from 19.5 last season to 12.4 this season.

--Why they'll win: They'll play hard, Wrenn will accept his role, and the addition of 5-8 dynamo Nate Robinson from the football team will provide a huge boost.

--Why they won't: New coach Lorenzo Romar won't be able to get through to Wrenn.

--Outlook: The Huskies, who have only one senior, reserve center Marlon Shelton, had enough talent last season to beat Oregon twice. If Romar gets them to play defense, they could be the surprise of the Pac-10.

UCLA

--Player to watch: Jason Kapono. The three-time, All-Pac-10 forward is in the worst slump of his career. A career 46-percent shooter on 3-pointers, Kapono is shooting just 29 percent this season.

--Key stat: UCLA is 2-5, its worst start since 1984.

--Why they'll win: Because Kapono, Dijon Thompson and T.J. Cummings are three of the best shooters in the Pac-10 and they suddenly decide to play together at both ends of the court.

--Why they won't: The first two months aren't an aberration.

--Outlook: It might get better, but it's not realistic to count on it. Since Jan. 10 of last year, the Bruins are 12-17 including exhibition games.

USC 

--Player to watch: Center Rory O'Neil. The multiskilled sophomore is averaging 9.8 points and 5.3 rebounds, but if this turns out to be more than a rebuilding year his play will be a big reason why.

--Key stat: The Trojans have 24 more turnovers than assists.

--Why they'll win: They'll learn to play under control, and Errick Craven, who is shooting 35 percent, will rediscover his stroke.

--Why they won't: This team was routed by UC Santa Barbara.

--Outlook: With a schedule rated 304th in the Sagarin rankings, USC is a mystery. JC transfer Roydell Smiley, who is hitting 48 percent of his 3-pointers, has been a big surprise.

OREGON STATE

--Player to watch: Forward Philip Ricci. Perhaps the best post player in a pivot-poor conference, Ricci, with his assortment of clever moves, is averaging 17.7 points and 8.2 rebounds.

--Key stat: Freshman point guard Lamar Hurd has 40 assists, more than last year's starting point guard - Jimmie Haywood - had all season.

--Why they'll win: Because senior forward Brian Jackson, who turned down Arizona, finally will deliver on his promise.

--Why they won't: Because the Beavers never do. They haven't had a winning season in 13 years.

--Outlook: First-year coach Jay John has the Beavers off to a 7-2 start, but their strength of schedule in the Sagarin ratings is 315th in the nation. The Beavers' next two games - home to ASU and Arizona - will tell more than the past two months.

WASHINGTON STATE

--Player to watch: Guard Marcus Moore. The most unheralded player in the Pac-10. Moore leads the league in scoring (21.1 points), is third in assists (4.56) and second in defensive rebounds (5.78).

--Key stat: WSU has seven Pac-10 victories in the past three seasons.

--Why they'll win: If nobody can stop Moore.

--Why they won't: Because they have less and not enough Moore.

--Outlook: Coach Paul Graham is in the final year of his contract and while the Cougars have played well of late - pushing Gonzaga to OT and beating Fresno State - it might take a lot more than that to bring him back.

CAPTION(S):

photo, 2 boxes

Photo:

Oregon is one of the two teams favored to win the Pacific-10 Conference this season, primarily because of Luke Ridnour, left, and Luke Jackson, right.

Box:

(1) FAST BREAK

(2) USC vs. WASHINGTON STATE

- Vincent Bonsignore