TOO SCARED FOR THE SKIES SURVEY FINDS 1 IN 3 PLAN TO AVOID AIR TRAVEL OVER THANKSGIVING.

Byline: Dana Bartholomew Staff Writer

With air traffic down sharply since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, nearly one-third of potential Thanksgiving fliers say they're so afraid that they'll either hit the highways or stay home, according to a new survey.

One in five potential passengers also said he'd warn friends and relatives to stay on the ground this holiday season, according to the poll. Most people felt other attacks are likely and many said measures taken so far were not enough to restore their confidence.

``They definitely are scared,'' Josh King, a pollster hired by the Travel Business Roundtable, said Wednesday. ``There's a significant population that, given the option to fly over the holidays, will instead take ground transportation or stay at home.''

Business and leisure travelers are worried about the threat of an attack in the air, and that's expected to last through the holiday season.

For safety's sake, it's best this season to savor turkey and the fixin's at home, said Jessica Warren, 22, of Santa Rosa, who flew into Burbank- Glendale-Pasadena Airport on Wednesday.

``Safe in my castle,'' she said. ``Never been better.''

The Roundtable survey for the airline, hotel and tourist industries mirrors reports from airline industry officials shell-shocked by business losses since hijackers killed some 5,500 people in New York, Virginia and Pennsylvania on Sept. 11.

Airlines such as Southwest Airlines and America West said it was too early to tell what the holidays have in store.

While such airlines won't discuss holiday bookings, some say they're grounding aircraft because of a projected downturn in November traffic during what is usually the busiest air travel season of the year.

``We are tweaking the schedule and reducing (capacity),'' said Allen Wayne, spokesman for United Airlines in Los Angeles. ``Due to weak passenger demand, we're grounding certain aircraft ... destined to retire in 2003.''

United, which had reduced capacity 20 percent by Oct. 1, projects a 26 percent drop by Nov. 1, with flights reduced at some cities and eliminated in others. Such reductions, Wayne said, were common across all air carriers.

At LAX, traffic has dropped from 2,100 flights a day before Sept. 11 to 1,700 flights, according to airport officials.

The Roundtable survey interviewed 400 business and 400 leisure travelers early last week. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Among the findings:

-- Nearly eight out of 10 air travelers think another terrorist attack on the United States is likely.

-- One in four travelers said new security measures were insufficient to restore confidence in travel as it was prior to the Sept. 11 atrocities.

-- Nearly three out of 10 fliers who have altered their travel plans say it will take from six months to a year to return to normal air travel routines.

``Even before Sunday's news and the threats of retaliation against the U.S., there was a clear sense of unease permeating the travel and tourism industry,'' Jonathan Tisch, Roundtable chairman and chief executive officer of Loews Hotels, said in a statement.

``Fewer people are traveling and they are spending less, resulting in hundreds of thousands in job losses,'' Tisch said.

Local travel agents and hotels have been hit especially hard. While some Los Angeles hotels report vacancies at more than 50 percent, travel agents say it has only been this week that business has improved - from almost no business.

The possibility of a slow holiday season could be devastating, managers and business owners say.

``We're anticipating some business to drop off,'' said Tony Fernandez, front desk manager for the Sheraton Universal Hotel in Universal City, which has cut rates to woo guests back. ``Anything to bring travelers back in.''

Ditto for the Hilton Universal City & Towers, according to marketing officials who said the Roundtable poll ``sounds pretty accurate.''

Despite dour predictions, some see daylight in air travel prospects. Passengers are returning ``at a faster pace than we had anticipated, and that gives us some hope,'' David Swierenga, chief economist for the Air Transport Association, said at a briefing before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Friday, according to Cox News Service.

Sherman Oaks Travel, a full-service agency that reported a 95 percent drop in business last week, had regained one-quarter of its normal traffic Wednesday.

``Last week, you could have played baseball (in here) and not hurt anybody,'' said Hal Markwardt, the agency's owner. ``This week is getting better ... the phones are ringing again.''

Despite the downturn in travel, there are big crowds and long waits at airports because of the increased security measures. For some people, that's enough to drive them to other forms of travel, rather than spend the time waiting or fighting through the crowds.

But many travelers, upon learning of the Roundtable survey, scoffed at staying home or on the ground for the holidays.

``I do have concerns, but I'm not changing what I normally do,'' said Armida Deck, 60, of Santa Ana, a business traveler at Burbank Airport on Wednesday. ``It's like a stubborn streak in me: You gotta go on with life.''

Gary Reeves, 38, of Berkeley was equally resolved to keep to the skies.

``If it's going to happen, it's your time, per se,'' he said of a possible attack. ``It can happen any time, it won't necessarily happen on an airplane.''