TO QB, OR NOT QB? PICKING SIGNAL-CALLER IN DRAFT BIG RISK.

Byline: Billy Witz Staff Writer

German folklore tells the tale of Lorelei, a beautiful maiden who sat above the cliffs of the Rhine. As she sang, boat captains who headed down the river became mesmerized by her voice and her beauty, and crashed their ships onto the rocks.

Turn down the lights, roll the film and when NFL general managers, coaches and scouts begin looking at quarterbacks, they soon drift off like Teutonic sailors, consumed by visions of John Elway, Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning.

What they don't see is Heath Shuler, Tim Couch or Ryan Leaf.

There are more perils than ever in choosing a quarterback high in the draft during the salary-cap era - the onerous financial commitment, increased pressure from fans and media for teams to win now, and a spotty track record of the prospects panning out.

Yet more teams than ever find themselves unable to resist the siren song of the franchise quarterback.

In the past seven years, 21 quarterbacks have been chosen in the first round - or more than had been taken in the previous 14 drafts.

That run should continue Saturday when three more quarterbacks - USC's Matt Leinart, Texas' Vince Young and Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler - are sure to be chosen in the first round, possibly within the first 10 picks. It's likely that when all their names are called, half the teams in the NFL will have spent a first-round pick on a quarterback in the past five years.

``When you have a chance to pick what you feel, at least in your own mind, is the franchise quarterback, you make it,'' said Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi, who traded several picks to San Diego two years ago for the top overall pick, Eli Manning. ``If you hit it, you're set for 15 years.''

Still, for an increasing number of teams, it has been a swing and a miss. This offseason, the Detroit Lions have given up on Joey Harrington and the Washington Redskins dealt Patrick Ramsey, two of the three quarterbacks chosen in the first round in 2002.

The careers of two other first-round picks, the New York Jets' Chad Pennington and the Minnesota Vikings' Daunte Culpepper, are in jeopardy because of injuries. Culpepper, a former Pro Bowler, was traded to Miami for a second-round pick.

Tennesee's Steve McNair, McNabb and Manning are the only quarterbacks taken in the first round prior to 2000 who still are with the same team.

``There's a reason why (former San Francisco 49ers coach) Bill Walsh never took a first-round quarterback,'' said Ravens coach Brian Billick, whose team has been searching for stability at quarterback almost since it arrived in Baltimore 10 years ago. Three years ago, they traded up to select Kyle Boller (Hart High of Newhall) with the 19th pick, but he has been injured frequently and slow to develop.

``If you're going to crapshoot, don't do it in the first round. No matter how good you are and what your track record is, it's a crapshoot. You don't want to throw that dice on the fifth, 10th, 15th or 25th pick. You'll do it with 40, 50, fifth round and sixth round. No matter how good of an evaluator you are, everybody had Ryan Leaf at second, third or fourth on their board.''

Just as Leaf, who was taken right behind Indianapolis' Manning in 1998, remains the poster boy for quarterback busts, Tom Brady is proof that all great quarterbacks aren't found atop the draft board. The quarterback who has led the New England Patriots to three Super Bowl titles in six seasons was a sixth-round pick.

Former St. Louis Rams coach Mike Martz has had great success unearthing gems. Trent Green, Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger - none of whom were chosen higher than the sixth round - each got their start under Martz. All have played in the Pro Bowl and Warner is a two-time NFL MVP.

Seattle coach Mike Holmgren has had similar success. Though he had Brett Favre in Green Bay, Holmgren made a habit of looking for quarterbacks on the second day of the draft. Among those he found were Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Brooks - all of whom became starters elsewhere. In Seattle, Holmgren has two promising mid-round picks - Seneca Wallace and David Greene - backing up Hasselbeck, who led the Seahawks to their first Super Bowl last season.

``I started thinking a lot about it a few years ago when they said there were no young quarterbacks coming in that could play in the league anymore,'' said Holmgren, a former quarterbacks coach under Walsh. ``I think if you see one in college and you say that guy has potential - and my own curiosity about coaching quarterbacks - then I'm going to take a shot and bring a guy in every year and see if we can hit on one.

``We've had some success doing that.''

Others are beginning to follow suit. The Browns passed on Aaron Rodgers and declined to trade up two spots to take Alex Smith last year, instead waiting until the third round to take Charlie Frye. He started the final five games for Cleveland and will begin this season as the Browns' No. 1 quarterback.

The Atlanta Falcons, though they had Michael Vick, chose Matt Schaub in the third round in 2004 and he already has drawn strong trade interest from the Vikings, among others.

The advantage quarterbacks drafted lower have is they're given the time and space to develop at their own pace. There is less clamoring by fans and media to get them into the lineup, and less pressure from within the organization to get a return on its investment.

For example, while Frye has a four-year, $5 million contract with Cleveland, the 49ers signed top pick Alex Smith to a six-year, $49.5 million contract - half of which is guaranteed. So, never mind that Smith was 21 years old or that he was playing behind a patchwork offensive line, he was going to play last season.

``I'm not a big fan of `Wow, get that guy in the first round and he's the answer to all our problems now,' '' Buffalo Bills general manager Marv Levy said. ``He may eventually be, but the old term `building for the future' is an incomplete sentence. When you do that you're building for the future coach.''

Levy isn't kidding. Of the 21 coaches who have drafted a first-round quarterback since 1999, 12 have been fired. The average time they lasted after choosing their franchise quarterback: 2.25 seasons.

``That's the toughest part, getting with a coach that has some stability with the program,'' said Philadelphia Eagles coach Andy Reid, who made McNabb one of five quarterbacks taken among the top 12 picks in 1999. Three of them - Cade McNown, Akili Smith and Couch - are long since out of the NFL.

``In a lot of cases, it's a coach that is hanging onto his job, so he's really coaching that guy up for another team. Now, all of a sudden you change offenses - very few guys can handle that. The chance of them getting into an offense that suits them is out of their hands.''

Reid believes this is behind many of the offseason deals for quarterbacks. Teams that own five of the top nine picks in the draft - the New Orleans Saints (Drew Brees), Oakland Raiders (Brooks), Jets (Ramsey), Bills (Craig Nall) and Lions (Jon Kitna, Josh McCown) - have acquired quarterbacks they expect to at least challenge for the starting job.

``I think it scares people off,'' Reid said.

Then again, there is Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers took him 11th overall two years ago and two months ago he became the youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl.

It would seem the Steelers have little to worry about at the position for another decade or so. Instead, they'll enjoy the intrinsic value of a franchise quarterback - the anchor it provides a team, the face it can put on the marquee and the hope it can sell to fans.

It's why when teams look at Leinart, with his GQ looks and his winner's resume, they can't help but see Tom Brady. Or when they look at Young, it's easy for them to see somebody as dynamic as Michael Vick. Or when they see Cutler, with his arm and Southern good ol' boy grit, he looks a lot like Brett Favre.

It's why Billick, after reciting all the reasons not to spend a top pick on a quarterback, laughs when he's asked if the Ravens will take one Saturday.

``You have to talk to Ozzie about that one,'' Billick said, referring to general manager Ozzie Newsome. ``If he's the highest rated guy on the board, we'll take him.''

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CAPTION(S):

5 photos, 2 boxes

Photo:

(1 -- color) Matt Leinart

Evan Yee/Staff Photograper

(2) Ryan Leaf was once considered a better choice than Peyton Manning. Now, Leaf is seen as one of the biggest busts.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images(3) After toiling in Green Bay, sixth-rounder Matt Hasselbeck led Seattle to an NFC championship and a Super Bowl berth.

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

(4) 49ers' first-round pick Jim Druckenmiller didn't make anyone forget Joe Montana.

Otto Greule Jr./Getty Images

(5) Jake Plummer, chosen in the second round, led Denver to the 2005 AFC title game.

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Box:

(1) PICK OF THE LETTER

(2) QB POOL